Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 11 Mar 2015

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Publish date: Wed, 11 Mar 2015, 09:58 AM

Malaysia

· GST Will Have no Impact on 2015 Tax Collection Target. The Inland Revenue Board (IRB) said the impending Goods & Services Tax (GST) would not affect this year's tax collection target of RM142.6 billion from RM133.7 billion reported last year. Deputy Finance Minister Datuk Ahmad Maslan had previously said that the GST implementation is expected to reduce income tax collection by as much as RM6.12 billion, whereas the implementation of the minimum wage policy would see a RM2.4 billion decrease in corporate tax. However, IRB CEO Tan Sri Dr Mohd Shukor Mahfar said the reduction in income tax, as well as corporate tax, would not impact this year's total tax collection, explaining that the RM142.6 billion tax collection target announced by the government during the Budget 2015 announcement last year had taken into account the new tax regime implementation. (The Sun Daily)

Asia Pacific

· China's Core Inflation Rises By 1.4% In February. China's core inflation rate rose by 1.4% in February from a year earlier, recovering from a more than five-year low and exceeding most expectations. The consumer price inflation (CPI) data compares with a rise of 0.8% in January, which was the weakest reading since November 2009. China's new consumer inflation target is about 3%, down from 3.5% in 2014. The rise in inflation for the period was attributed by officials to China's Lunar New Year celebrations. (BBC)

· Indonesia January Retail Sales Grow 10.4%. Indonesia's annual retail sales in January grew at a much faster pace of 10.4% bolstered by information and communication equipment as well as food, beverages and tobacco, a Bank Indonesia survey showed on Tuesday. January's retail sales were faster than December's 3.3% growth, which was revised from an initial 4.3%. The 650 retailers in 10 major cities surveyed said they expected annual retail sales growth in February would continue to accelerate. (Reuters)

· South Korea Finance Minister: Major Economic Indicators Broadly Weak. South Korea's finance minister said on Tuesday the country's major economic indicators were broadly weak, and a recovery in Asia's fourth-largest economy was not picking up quickly despite improvements in the stock market and real estate transactions. "Major indicators like manufacturing, consumption, investment and exports have shown broad weakness while uncertainty in the global economy is persisting," said Finance Minister Choi Kyung-hwan in a meeting with government officials. (Reuters)

· Australian Consumer Sentiment Dips in March – Survey. A measure of Australian consumer sentiment dipped from 13- month highs in March as concerns about proposed budget measures and taxation tempered the favourable effect of lower interest rates. Wednesday's survey of 1,200 people by the Melbourne Institute and Westpac Bank showed its index of consumer sentiment slipped a seasonally adjusted 1.2% in March. Still, the dip only unwound a little of February's sharp 8.0% gain which followed a cut in interest rates early that month. The index reading of 99.5 matched the reading from March last year, showing pessimists just slightly outnumbering optimists. (Reuters)

USA

· Job Openings Rise to the Highest Level in 14 Years. Employers across the U.S. had 5 million job openings at the end of January, the most since January 2001, providing further hope that the labor market is on the mend. Openings have been rising across a range of industries, according to the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, known as Jolts. Professional and business services, health care and accommodation and food services have seen openings rise; mining and logging, which includes the beleaguered U.S. oil industry, has seen openings decline. The level of hiring declined slightly in January, falling to 5 million from 5.2 million in December. The total number of people leaving their job declined slightly, too–separations fell to 4.8 million from 4.9 million. (The Wall Street Journal)

· U.S. Wholesale Inventories Rise. U.S. wholesale inventories unexpectedly rose in January as sales recorded their biggest decline since 2009, lifting the number of months it would take to clear warehouses to its highest level in more than 5½ years. While that would normally suggest a wholesale inventory overhang that could weigh on economic growth as firms draw down rather than build stocks, economists were little worried and blamed the jump in the inventory-to-sales ratio on the plunge in crude oil prices. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday wholesale inventories increased 0.3% in January after being unchanged in December. Inventories are a key component of gross domestic product changes. With sales falling 3.1%, the largest drop since March 2009, that means it would take 1.27 months to clear shelves - the most since July 2009. The inventory-to-sales ratio was at 1.22 months in December. (Reuters)

· U.S. Small Business Confidence Ticks Up In February. U.S. small business optimism edged up in February amid signs of tightening labor market conditions, bolstering the view that a recent slowdown in economic activity will be temporary. The National Federation of Independent Business said on Tuesday its Small Business Optimism Index gained 0.1 point to 98 last month, the third highest reading since early 2007. The survey of 716 small business owners found 29% could not fill open positions, the highest level since April, 2006. 14% of them cited the shortage of skilled labor as their top problem. (Reuters) duties, to help narrow the current account deficit and prop up a weakening rupiah in Southeast Asia's largest economy, the finance minister said on Tuesday. Under the new regulations, the finance ministry will be allowed to impose a temporary tax on imported goods suspected of being sold below fair market value. That allows the ministry to take action against anti-dumping immediately, instead of waiting for the trade ministry to complete its analysis. Officials declined to say which imported goods could be targeted. The finance ministry will also offer tax breaks to companies that export at least 30% of their products in a bid to develop the country's manufacturing industry. At times, the size of Indonesia's current account deficit has reached 4% of GDP. (Reuters)

· Hands Tied, Turkish Central Bank Struggles to Lift Lira off Lows. Efforts by Turkey's central bank to defend the lira did little to lift it off record lows on Tuesday, outweighed by a globally strong dollar and concern about President Tayyip Erdogan's intervention in monetary policy. In a complex series of steps, the bank said it would adjust its reserve requirements - used to control the amount of dollars in the market - to temporarily boost forex liquidity by some $1.5 billion over the coming weeks. The lira weakened to 2.6400 to the dollar on Tuesday, just shy of a record low hit last Friday, partly as expectations of a U.S. interest rate hike pushed the dollar to multi-year highs. The lira has fallen around 12% against the dollar this year. (Reuters)

· Dollar Rallies to Multiyear Peaks vs. Euro, Yen as Central Bank Moves Eyed. The U.S. dollar hit a near 12-year peak against the euro and touched its highest level against the Japanese yen in nearly eight years on Tuesday, buoyed by the European Central Bank's bond-buying program as well as expectations for a mid-year Federal Reserve rate hike. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, hit its highest since September 2003, while the euro fell as low as $1.06925, a level last reached in April 2003. The euro also hit 129.480 yen, its lowest since August 2013. Against the yen, the dollar hit 122.040 yen its strongest level since July 2007. The greenback also hit parity with the Swiss franc for the first time since the Swiss National Bank scrapped a 1.20 francs per euro cap on Jan 15. In emerging markets, the dollar hit 15.6452 pesos, its highest against the Mexican peso since at least 1989, and its highest in nearly 11 years against the Brazilian real at 3.1722 reais. (Reuters)

Commodities

· Brent Crude Dips Below $58 on Strong Dollar and Supply. Brent crude futures dipped below $58 a barrel on Tuesday as the dollar hit multi-year highs and the oil market remained hobbled by oversupply and weak demand. The U.S. dollar hit a near 12-year peak against the euro and an eight-year high against the yen, hurting commodities priced in dollars by making them more expensive for holders of other currencies. At 7.31 a.m. EDT, Brent LCOc1 was down 79 cents at $57.74, while U.S. crude CLc1 was 45 cents lower at $49.55. Traders and analysts said there was a risk of further falls as speculative net long positions were so high, particularly in Brent, whilst the fundamental picture remained one of weakness with no sign of any slowdown in production. (Reuters)

· Gold Hits 3-Month Low on Dollar Rise, U.S. Rate Expectations. Gold fell to a three-month low on Tuesday, pressured by the dollar's rise to its highest in nearly 12 years and renewed expectations of a midyear interest rate increase in the United States. Spot gold dropped to its lowest since Dec 1 at $1,155.60 an ounce in early trading and was down 0.4% at $1,161.55 by 1809 GMT, while U.S. gold for April delivery settled down $6.40 an ounce at $1,160.10. Platinum fell to its lowest since July 2009 at $1,124 an ounce. The metal has dropped 6.3% since the start of the year on expectations of lower demand from the automotive sector and higher mine supplies. Spot silver fell 1% to its lowest in two months at $15.57 an ounce, then gave back some losses to trade at $15.64. Palladium dropped 2.4% to $800.75 an ounce, its biggest fall since Jan 29. (Reuters)

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