Exports growth turned positive in December 2019, up 1.3% YoY, beating market expectation (Consensus: -1.9%; Nov: -5.7%).

• MoM: exports growth rebounded to 3.8% (Nov: -6.6%) to USD14.5b.
• 2019: overall, exports fell by 6.9% YoY (2018: +6.6%) within house forecast (-5.0% to -10.0%) due to the impact of the global trade war and growth slowdown of key trading partners.
• Non-oil & gas exports: rebounded to a 17-month high of 5.8% YoY (Nov: -4.6%), mainly driven by a jump in the export of agriculture (24.5%; Nov: 4.4%) and a rebound in exports of manufacturing goods (6.9%; Nov: -1.6%).
• Oil & gas-based products: fell by 31.9% YoY (Nov: -21.0%) weighed down by a decline in exports of mining (- 38.0%; Nov: -27.2%).

Imports fell for six straight months, down 5.6% YoY (Nov: -9.2%; consensus: -5.0%), dragged by weak imports of nonoil & gas products (-7.3%; Nov: -5.9%)

• By category, weaker imports was associated with a decline in imports of capital goods (-8.5%; Nov: -3.5%) and raw materials (-7.3%; Nov: -13.2%). Bucking the trend, growth of consumer goods imports remained in a positive trend albeit slowing at 12.2% (Nov: 16.3%).
• MoM: imports fell by 5.5% (Nov: 3.9%) to USD14.5b.

Trade balance recorded a lesser-than-expected deficit of just USD28m (Nov: -USD1.4b), beating the consensus estimate (-USD0.4b). Overall, total trade extended its fall for the thirteenth straight month at -2.3% YoY (Nov: -7.8%) albeit at a slower pace.

Exports to recover on the back of easing US-China trade tension (2020: 1.0% to 4.0%)

• Positive developments on the US-China trade feud and President Jokowi’s administration aim to boost exports may help bolster Indonesia's trade performance and the economy going forward.

Source: Kenanga Research - 16 Jan 2020