Fundamental Overview

▪ MYR depreciated for the sixth consecutive week to a level last seen in July 2020. The weak performance was primarily due to the unabated rise in domestic COVID-19 cases, which rose past the 15.0k mark last Friday. Despite rapid ramp-up in the country's inoculations, the local note lost ground against the strengthening USD due to the safe-haven demand driven by fear of rising Delta variant cases.

▪ MYR may continue to decline against the USD ahead of the FOMC meeting this week as the market factor in the possibility that the Fed may start to tiptoe towards tapering its bond purchases. Looking beyond the near-term COVIDinduced USD strength and Malaysia's worsening health crisis, the local note may be supported by a better-thanexpected trade figures and a potential easing of the COVID19 restrictions for fully vaccinated people.

Technical Analysis

▪ On the contrary, our 5-day EMA indicator suggests that MYR might reverse its downtrend and appreciate slightly against the USD by 0.09% to 4.223 this week.

▪ Technical-wise, the pair faces an initial support at (S1) 4.222, followed by (S2) 4.217. On the other hand, should a sustained rise above (R1) 4.232 occur, it would attest an extended bearish MYR trend.

Source: Kenanga Research - 26 Jul 2021