According to the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA), TIV for July 2021 registered 7,086 units (+269% MoM%, -88% YoY). There was significant improvement in MoM growth mainly from Sabah and Sarawak where showrooms were allowed to operate under National Recovery Plan Phase 2 with very minimal sales via online registration, but overall, YoY sales still suffered from nationwide lockdown that started 1 st June 2021 under the National Recovery Plan Phase 1. With the re-opening of economic activities including sales and production of motor vehicles under National Recovery Plan Phase 1 starting 16th August 2021 especially for key states of Selangor and Kuala Lumpur, we expect car sales to recover especially with the growing number of back-logged bookings for popular models. 7M21 TIV recorded 256,215 units (+10%), within our expectation at 56% of our 2021 TIV target of 460k units (-13%), as we expect stronger recovery with the re-opening of the economy. Driving forward, we pegged our 2022 TIV target at 600k units (+30%), closely in line with MAA’s TIV target of 605k units (+21%). Our 2022 TIV growth will be driven by the expected recovery in economy post lockdown and the assumption that herd immunity would be achieved by then, inevitably resulting in relaxation of SOPs toward revitalising local travel which should push demand for passenger vehicles especially the affordable national marques. Additionally, a few automakers have assured commitment to absorb SST beyond Dec 2021. Maintain NEUTRAL.

TIV for July 2021 registered 7,086 units (+269% MoM%, -88% YoY). There was significant improvement in MoM growth mainly from Sabah and Sarawak where showrooms are allowed to operate under National Recovery Plan Phase 2 with very minimal sales via online registration, but YoY sales still suffer from nationwide lockdown starting 1st June 2021 under the National Recovery Plan Phase 1. With the re-opening of economic activities including sales and production for motor vehicles under National Recovery Plan Phase 1 starting 16th August 2021 especially for key states of Selangor and Kuala Lumpur, we expect sales-boosting recovery in car sales especially with the growing number of back-logged booking for the popular models.

A detailed look at the passenger vehicles segment (+169% MoM, -91% YoY). Perodua (- 35% MoM, -97% YoY)’s sales were driven by the all-new Axia, Myvi, Bezza, and ARUZ and Ativa (287 units sold at 44% of sales) but growth was lower than other marques in July as most of their ready-inventory has been cleared in June 2021 with factory not in operation. Proton (+290% MoM, -86% YoY)’s sales were due to the all-new X70 and X50 (434 units sold at 23% of sales), and supported by the face-lifted Persona, Iriz, Exora and Saga (collective known as PIES). Honda (+2559% MoM, - 90% YoY)’s sales mostly came from City, Civic and BR-V with exceptional response for the all-new City.Toyota (+956% MoM, -85% YoY)’s sales mostly came from its top models namely all-new Toyota Vios, Yaris, and Toyota Hilux. Nissan (+769% MoM, -90% YoY)’s all-new Almera has started to propel positive growth for the brand, but overall growth still lagged behind other marques from the dearth of all-new model launches. Mazda (+233% MoM, -83% YoY)’s sales were mostly contributed by the face-lifted CX-5 and allnew CX-8.

Maintain NEUTRAL with unchanged 2021 TIV target at 460k units (-13%) but we expect a strong recovery next year with 2022 TIV target of 600k units (+30%). With the re-opening of economic activities including sales and production for motor vehicles under National Recovery Plan Phase 1 starting 16th August 2021 especially for key states of Selangor and Kuala Lumpur, we expect salesboosting recovery in car sales especially with the growing number of back-logged booking for the popular models. We keep our 2021 TIV target at 460k units (-13%) tracking behind MAA 2021 target TIV at 500k units. We expect a stronger recovery next year with 2022 TIV target at 600k units (+30%), closely in line with MAA’s TIV target of 605k units (+21%). Our 2022 TIV growth will be driven by the expected recovery in economy post lockdown and the assumption that herd immunity would be achieved by then, inevitably resulting in relaxation of SOPs toward revitalising local travel which should push demand for passenger vehicles especially the affordable national marques. Additionally, a few automakers have assured commitment to absorb SST beyond Dec 2021.

Source: Kenanga Research - 23 Aug 2021