Fundamental Overview

▪ MYR ended the week lower by 0.18% WoW against the USD last week, amid a more hawkish tone by the US Fed as it announced faster QE taper and signals a sooner and at least three rate hikes in 2022. The local note was also affected by relatively lower crude oil prices and rising USD index (DXY) due to uncertainty over the Omicron variant.

▪ The ringgit may continue to be weighed by the US Fed hawkish tone and surging COVID-19 cases in Europe amid the spreading of the Omicron variant. Lack of local catalyst and severe floods in Klang Valley, which may disrupt growth recovery, may also pressure the local note. Thus, downside bias against the USD remains.

Technical Analysis

▪ Based on the EMA indicator, the ringgit is expected to fall slightly by 0.01% to 4.220 this week.

▪ The dollar may continue its upward momentum this week and breach the (R1) 4.226 level if sentiment continue to be bearish for the local note. Conversely, a break below the (S1) 4.206 and (S2) 4.199 support level is needed to reverse MYR bearish bias.

Source: Kenanga Research - 20 Dec 2021