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[转帖] Zhulian 株连九族 - 音乐瀑布 大时代

Tan KW
Publish date: Fri, 24 Jan 2014, 09:46 AM
Tan KW
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Good.

 

Friday, January 24, 2014

 
被冷眼喻为 小amway 的 zhulian  , 今天在大马股市从 抗跌股变成 看跌股,

它都没有亏,而且还给股息共 7sen, 只是昨天出炉的业绩不如预期,

竟然从昨天(22-1-2014)的闭市价 RM4.61  跌到 RM3.6 ,

这非常不合常理。

不合常理,就是人为的。

甚麼人?或那个基金?那间股票行?

大家想不出头绪吧! 无所谓,继续看下去,你就知元凶了。

zhulian 有两个 call warrant,

zhulian - ca 与 zhulian - cb,

zhulian - ca 的cash settlement 是 2粒 ca + RM3,

总票数 = 5千万单位,

30-1-2014 到期,27-1-2014最后一天交易(就下个星期罢了)。

如果母股 zhulian RM4.60,

那麼 zhulian-ca 就值得

(RM4.6 - RM3) / 2 = 80sen.

5千万单位的 zhulian-ca,

cimb 就得付出 RM0.8 X 50,000,000 = RM40,000,000 给 zhulian- ca 持有者。

4千万,老兄,4千万,看看最近cimb 的气色(股价表现),要拿出4千万,会不会勉强!

今天zhulian 闭市 RM3.6,

那么 (RM3.6- RM3) / 2 = 30sen,

80sen -30sen =50sen, 每单位zhulian - ca, cimb 省 50sen

5千万单位 zhulian -ca, cimb 就可少付 RM0.5 X 50,000,000 = 2千5百万

今天zhulian 总成交量是12,551,800单位。

如果这些通通都是 cimb 卖的,而且通通都卖在最低价 RM3.60,

RM4.61 - RM3.6 = RM1.01

RM1.01 X 12,551,800 = 1千2百6十多万。

那么它才亏约 1千2百6十多万罢了。

亏了1千2百6十多万,却省下 2千5百万,这笔生意是可做过的,非常划算。


http://musicalwaterfall.blogspot.com/2014/01/blog-post_24.html


 

 

 

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1 person likes this. Showing 15 of 15 comments

ipomember

can somebody tell me that this article sounds logic? lol

2014-01-24 10:15

choonhock

小心cimb告你诽谤

2014-01-24 10:42

thundercat

Warrant issuers don't normally manipulate prices to kill off warrant traders. They make money from the increased commission (due to more trades) and from the spread of warrant buy/sell prices. They will also hedge/protect their position against the warrant traders by purchasing the mother shares if the warrant is in the money.

2014-01-24 11:46

bugle

who might know the answer? I don't know, but it make sense. this is not the 1st time. it happened several times b4. what a coincidence!

2014-01-24 14:20

smartly

if it need to do, it has to do, to maximise their profit.
too bad.

2014-01-24 14:49

Tey Tian Foo

If the last tradeing day as stated on 27/1 is correct, then the actual exercising price is not so low at RM0.30, but average of last 5 trading days.

2014-01-24 16:11

smartly

TTF is correct.

2014-01-24 16:28

dixonng888

I don't think CIMB still have 50,000,000 outstanding Zhulian-CA floating in market...
I have been trading Call / Put warrant since 2008, never since an issuer drastically selling / buying mother share due to the near expiry of 1 call warrant..

2014-01-24 22:34

ipomember

for me it doesn't make sense. Call warrant itself has high premium to secure the IB to win when they issue. Moreover, you do not know who hold the call warrant the most, do you? Ask yourself, what kind of consumer products you are selling which have its quarter earning drops more than 60%? Guys this is MLM company, whoever bought into this company, are you all clear on MLM business model?

2014-01-25 15:27

kk123

The model seems to me is similar to ponzi scheme
Initially they reward and give high dividend and returns to lure more ppl
Once collapse the last one to enter will get fools gold
They will be digging for sands and mud

2014-01-25 15:30

kk123

Warrant issuers actually do manipulate by holding both the mother and the child
If cheaper to , they can just sell the mother off in open market to cause price panic
When it goes down maybe the call warrant can expire at lesser price to convert and hence worthless
u can see how they do even last time drbhicom call warrant ppl complain as last day to expiry the mother share was forced down in last 10 minutes or so with no reason

2014-01-25 15:35

ipomember

some people blame on the political unrest, but is the timing right?

2014-01-25 15:36

ipomember

well, when the share price drops more than 20%, with the tremendously high volume traded, do you know who are the one selling the mother shares? If you say CIMB,it sounds ridiculous. Do you think CIMB has so many shares? Even if it has, the share is mostly hold under nominees for certain client or under their fund management. Do you think they take their client's stock for granted?

2014-01-25 15:40

ipomember

Well, it is just my wild guess, it is better for one to find out their top 30 largest shareholders. it is more than 10M shares traded if i am not mistaken

2014-01-25 15:41

kk123

Do not underestimate what cimb can or cant do ...They can sell "some" to trigger the panic and release the bad news follow by downgrading on the company
Then when people see massive selling they will also throw
But in this case looks more like Zhulian screwup by itself
It's business model is highly advance ponzi scheme

2014-01-25 15:53

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