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[转帖] 家禽业和鸡蛋业复苏？ - 闲谈股市，理财篇

Tan KW
Publish date: Fri, 30 May 2014, 03:22 PM
Tan KW
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闲谈股市，理财篇 
家禽业和鸡蛋业复苏？

这几天Teoseng ，cab ，pw，ltkm业绩都陆续出炉
而且净利都大幅度增长，这是否是家禽业和鸡蛋业复苏迹象吗？

cab，pw是以家禽业为主。teoseng，ltkm是以鸡蛋业为主

【家禽业的隐忧】
1）鸡肉价格波动
2）原料价格的波动
3）禽流感

【鸡蛋业隐忧】
1）人造鸡蛋的冲击
2）原料价格
3）鸡蛋价格
4）禽流感

【人造鸡蛋的冲击】
1）目前已经在香港开始出售
2）人造鸡蛋的营养比鸡蛋高出四分之一
3）素食者可以使用
4）人造鸡蛋的销售价比鸡蛋低一半
5）香港首富李嘉诚公开提倡人民购买人造鸡蛋

【原料价格】
1）大豆的价格从今年一月开始大涨，目前已经涨了将近25%
大豆占了原料成本很高比重
我看了teoseng和ltkm的净利，和大豆价格的跌幅很相似
除非大豆价格大跌，要不然鸡蛋业不会复苏

2）玉米价格虽然依然处于跌势
我依然认为玉米只占了部分原料成本
所以玉米价格跌，不代表鸡蛋业成本下降，因为大豆还是主要食料

【禽流感】
禽流感是防不胜防的疾病，没人可以预测何时到来，何时结束
但一旦发生，鸡蛋业和家禽业肯定伤得不轻

【后语】
在考量各总因素，鸡蛋业和家禽业的未来不许过于乐观
所以投资者应该离场观望，除非一天大豆价格大跌
那再买入也不迟

共勉之

 

 

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Discussions
2 people like this. Showing 3 of 3 comments

Tom贩卖机

植物性人造蛋。。。。=.="

2014-05-30 18:33

eastern_tea

鸡蛋都吃不完了,还人造蛋。。

2014-05-31 15:10

Fan Chein Pang

人造鸡蛋可以做蛋糕吗？你认为以后有市场吗？

2014-06-01 09:10

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