PETDAG Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1ifWaK9

My View:-

- Fair value:
  – 10Y DCF: 17.52 – 21.59 (MOS: -36% -> -11%)
    – Reversed DCF: 16% growth rate to reach 23.9. This also supports that PETDAG is overvalued.
  – Absolute EY%:
    – R4Q (EPS: 0.735): Buy below 17.70, sell above 21.05 (MOS: -21%)
    – FY14 (EPS: 0.881): Buy below 21.23, sell above 25.25 (MOS: 5%)
  – Both models indicate that PETDAG is overvalued.
- A potential cutback in national carrier MAS’s routes effective FY15 could cause PETDAG’s jet fuel trade to descent.
- Growth of this company in Malaysia is probably quite capped by market size. Besides, there are few more competitors here, such as Petron, Shell, BP, Caltex, etc…
- I will put PETDAG in the Study List for the time being.

Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (6 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1615529

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of PETDAG, and categorized this stock in the Study List.

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/06/09/petdagfundamental-analysis-9-jun-2014/