MAGNI Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1zHrmNm

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/pgyuhwd

My View:-

- Valuation:
  – 5 Years Projection:
    – 5-Y DCF:
      – Base Scenario: 6.62 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      – Good Scenario: 7.49 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      – Bad Scenario: 5.83 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      – Ugly Scenario: 5.14 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
    – Absolute PE:
      – FY14 (EPS: 0.387) – Fair value 6.17 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      – R4Q (EPS: 0.382) – Fair value 6.09 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
  – Short/Medium Term Projection:
    – Absolute EY%:
      – Trailing:
        – FY14 (EPS: 0.387) – Fair value 2.97 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
        – R4Q (EPS: 0.382) – Fair value 2.93 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      – Forward:
        – FY15 (EPS: 0.378) – Fair value 2.9 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
        – FY16 (EPS: 0.431) – Fair value 3.31 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
      – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.58): 0.336
- In long term, I believe that MAGNI is very undervalued. The projected fair values look like very unrealistic, especially because of low share liquidity. On the other hand, even if we cut the fair value 40-50%, MAGNI is still undervalued.
- in short/medium term, MAGNI is slightly undervalued.
- I will place MAGNI in the Watch List, and will continue to study its growth drivers and risks.
- I think MAGNI should improve its share liquidity because it has strong balance sheet.

Latest Financial – Q2 2015 Financial Report (3 Dec 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1814837

At the time of writing, I owned shares of MAGNI.

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/12/12/magni-fundamental-analysis-12-dec-2014/