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Airasia: Most investors don't read details - felicity

Tan KW
Publish date: Fri, 24 Feb 2017, 10:49 AM
Tan KW
0 509,770
Good.

Friday, February 24, 2017 

 
 
Airasia just recorded a fantastic 4Q16 results as well as full year result.

The headlines however read below: Airasia posts 16% drop in Q4 profit.
http://www.straitstimes.com/business/malaysias-airasia-posts-16-drop-in-q4-profit

Key Results for the 4th quarter. Between 4Q15 to 4Q16:
1.  Revenue / ASK (sen) improved from  14.81 sen to 15.71 sen an increase of 6%
2.  Revenue / ASK (US cents) improved from  3.38 to  3.58 an increase of 6%
3. Revenue dropped from RM2.167 billion to RM1.936 billion but it had a one off revenue item in 4Q15 i.e. recognition of lease revenue of RM727.9 million. Aircraft operating lease income for 4Q16 was RM381.2 million, which means that 4Q2015's additional one-off lease income was around RM400 - RM450 million. See below:

Included in aircraft operating lease income in the current quarter is maintenance service revenue which was not recognised previously due to uncertainty in the recoverability of the amount. With the improve clarity on the collectability of the amount, Management has decided to recognise the maintenance service revenue in the current quarter.

4. Cost / ASK (sen) reduced from 12.21 to 11.08 i.e. drop of  -9%

All of the above are the most important numbers and 4th quarter is a very important quarter as usually all airlines do well and it remains to be noticed whether the impact of competition would have affected companies like Airasia. Revenue per ASK increased while Cost per ASK reduced.

It should have been noted that

Ancillary Income Per Pax (RM) also increase from RM47 to RM 48 an increase of 2%.

Now, nobody talks of its high debt as it is getting smaller.

Now, if I am investor who look through details, I would have been delighted with the results. On the other hand, as probably expected from the headlines, it is the reverse. Stock price dropped, probably because of higher expectations (mind-boggling) and newspapers headlines.

There are 3 types of investors:
First, the institutions who will wait for the report from their analysts because probably they do not have time (because of portfolio too big). They get the first hand analysis first. But decision making is delayed because of some bureaucracy.

Second, the ones that get second hand information and in their first hand are the newspapers headlines and news. These are mostly retailers.

Third, the retailers and smaller institutions who do a lot of their own reading and research. I believe those are minorities.

Question is with that profile of investors, do you think there are still opportunities in stocks investments?
 
 

http://www.intellecpoint.com/2017/02/airasia-most-investors-dont-read-details.html

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1 person likes this. Showing 16 of 16 comments

calvintaneng

Now, nobody talks of its high debt as it is getting smaller.

Ohoh felicity!

You got it wrong there!

In off balance sheet

AirPlane Purchase Commitments have ballooned from Rm76 BILLIONS For Year 2015 TO RM88 BILLIONS for year 2016

A JUMP OF RM12 BILLIONS!!

THIS DEBT HAS INCREASED BY ANOTHER RM12 BILLIONS

Go check and double check again carefully.

Not sure?

Go ask ex Bank Governor Zeti

2017-02-24 10:58

stockmanmy

right shares can go down
wrong shares can go up

who says making money is easy?

2017-02-24 11:10

eyewitness

Don't be so proud. What makes you think you read more details than others?
Write on the company. Don't talk down other investors.
If you borrowed USD to buy a house in Malaysia, how is that a "non-cashflow" item now? What about in future?
Yes, it generates cashflow in Asian currencies, but that'll have to used to pay off loans in USD.

2017-02-24 11:10

stockmanmy

on the average, those who read details should make money.

but, still just an average.

2017-02-24 11:48

supersaiyan3

Good writing! If you talk to average investors, they will say result no good. You are probably right!

Don't expect too much from reporters, especially Malaysia.

We must praise the professionalism of the few analysts.

2017-02-24 12:46

supersaiyan3

Eyewitness what you said is very different from the QR released. I do not know how to discuss with you. Why don't you read it again?

2017-02-24 12:58

supersaiyan3

Calvin, the potential trillions of income also not being recorded mah. Maybe your intention is not for truth seeking or make money.

2017-02-24 13:01

supersaiyan3

Calvin, you dislike every counter which intends to grow? Hope you can find out who you really are. Maybe when you are rich enough, you can takeover companies and sell it off bit by bit, as you love asset so much.

2017-02-24 13:05

calvintaneng

Supersayan,

Calvin also like growth stocks

1) Super Enterprize was recommended at Rm1.25. Super turned supersonic and powered to Rm3.75 & taken private for 200% upside

2) MyEG (My Emas Gold) Jumped from Rm2.00 to Rm4.00 & split Up 100%

3) Pohuat or (Power Huat) at Rm1.25. Pohuat powered to Rm3.80 then split (Up 200%)

NOW LATEST GROWTH STOCK

TEXCHEM

POWERFUL POTENTIAL FOR GROWTH

1) Got SUSHI KING like OLDTOWN WHITE COFFEE

2) SEAFOOD FROM JAPAN & MYANMAR (like QL)

3) POLYMER (Like Super Enterprize)

4) Industrial raw material by texCHEMical(Like P Chemical)

5) Also Got HIGH NTA Which are PRIME ASSETS. Can unlock value like Eg, seacera, fiamma which revalue assets & book them as "PROFITS"

6) Good dividend of 6.7% to 10.08% (Like classic scienic, nestle, Dlady & tasek)


SO DON'T MISS TEXCHEM THE NEXT GROWTH STOCK

PLUS DEFENSIVE FOOD BUSINESS

PLUS HIGH NTA AS MARGIN OF SAFETY

PLUS NICE DIVIDENDS YEARLY

What more can you ask?

2017-02-24 20:59

supersaiyan3

I ask you again, what is TEXCHEM's profit margin? Why did the company lose money in the last two years? What makes you think it won't lose money again?

I already highlighted many times Airasia has changed a lot after the plane crash. It will be the biggest mistake of your life to miss you a 800 bagger like Airasia.

1. Airasia has the lowest cost structure, globally.

2. Market gives 0 value on its ventures. Now Airasia is unlocking its by selling all those investment and refocus. Unlocking Tens of Billion of value.

3. Increasing operating margins through innovations and cost cutting.

4. After record profit FY2016, FY2017 profit will double, to 4 billion. 1-2 billion gain on disposal, unlocking value exercises has been miscalculated by all analysts.

5. Listing in Hong Kong will re-rate the stock upward.

6. Airasia will continue to grow for the next 20 years at least.

7. All financials look great, ROI, margins, ROE, cash flow also better than TEXCHEM.

QL is quite good.

2017-02-25 06:41

supersaiyan3

Calvin, can't you see the beauty of Airasia? Continuous disruptive innovation will not only lead your competitors, also kill your competitions on the way.

As felicity pointed out in his previous article, most disruptive companies does not make money but command high earning multiples. Fortunate and unfortunate, the market here doesn't believe in innovation (yet), once Airasia is listed in Hong Kong/New York, the perception will change.

Our analysts here never seen anything like Airasia. They simply misjudge by giving negative value to invesments made for the future by Airasia.

2017-02-25 07:21

musangfoxking

y talk to a born loser aka Can't Win!!!!! just ignore him!!!!

2017-02-25 09:57

Des07

@Calvin, did the boss of Texchem tell you how many sushi king outlets they are going to open? in malaysia or overseas? did the boss mention what growth plan he has for the food division and other division? did he tell you his plan to unlock the prime asset value? Do you mind sharing?

2017-02-25 14:47

Des07

@Calvin, on the off balance sheet debt you mentioned, you need to see that from business value. The current backlog for plane order and delivery is 8-10 years. The backlog is value accretive to AAC business (leasing arm) - internally used by AA or lease to external/assoc. So it is a big mistake to assume all orders are for internal use (you do not see the business model for aircraft leasing). And in fact this "balloon debt" lift up AAC valuation. With AA disposal of leasing business, this ballon debts will reduce significantly. AA basically unlock the the leasing business and the value of these backlogs.

2017-02-25 15:53

stockmanmy

Question is with that profile of investors, do you think there are still opportunities in stocks investments?


the answer is...it is never easy.

got to learn Dynamic Investing.


sailang when time to sailang.

2017-02-25 17:52

supersaiyan3

myr up, oil down, more positive news from analyst reports published, my guess is going to be good next week. Let's see

2017-02-27 00:01

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