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[转贴] 在 2028 年回顾现在的云顶大马,你会后悔现在不买入!- SNOWMAN

Tan KW
Publish date: Mon, 10 Dec 2018, 03:30 PM
Tan KW
0 502,968
Good.

 

站在十年后看云顶大马:GENM 今年难得的三次大折扣!

 
首先,让我们来回顾 genm 十年的股价,来看看目前多灾多难,破屋更遭连夜雨已经到达低点:
 
 
回顾 2008 年金融风暴后的价位是大约在 rm 2.10,如今的价位是大概在 rm2.86(高了2008年低点36%)。如果股价反映的是价值,星期一开市genm 跌停板的话是会到达 rm2 的价位,也就是低过 2008 年的低点,然而if 股价反映的是股票的价值,代表云顶大马 2008年至今是没有
成长的,但是,有可能吗?让我们来解剖解剖。
 
基本面角度业绩(赚钱能力)股价上涨或下跌的根本原因,GENM 股价会下跌,代表投资者预期 GENM 未来的业绩会越来越差。目前云顶大马下跌的原因有三个:
 
1)赌场博彩税,将提高至占博彩营收总额的35%,比之前的25%大幅度调高 10%;博彩机器(如老虎机)税,则从总收入的20%提高至30%
 
也就是说,pe 中的 earning per share 将下调10%,genm 股价在 11 月 5 日开市却跌了30%,之后回调至3.6 的价位是逻辑的,因为盈利下跌。可是投资者原本预期 fox 主题乐园
会 cover 会这笔亏损,怎知。。。。继续看下面的剖析。
 
 
2)Fox 主题乐园被取消
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
原本投资者预期fox 主题乐园的效应会使得游客增加 cover 回这笔税务增加造成的损失。不过乐观的是,这个主题乐园只是暂时的被搁置,disney 和 fox 不要genting, 难道其他主题乐园不会来把握这个机会吗?
 
对于投资在fox 主题乐园的资金,云顶大马也已经提出诉讼,期望 claim 10亿美金(42亿马币)的赔偿金,目前也 claim 回1.936亿马币。 最坏的可能性是,云顶败诉 claim 不回资金,不过按照法律的逻辑这个可能性很小
 
3)投资 Mashpee Wampanoag Tribe (Tribe) 所发行的票据失败,减值 (impairment)18亿3430万造成第三季度一次性亏损
 
 

 
如果这个季度没有 impairment loss 的意外,genm 的 revenue 成长了 15%,ebidta 也增加了 86%,其实是赚钱的,也就是说没有意外的genm 在明年其实已经能cover 回博彩税提高的损失。但是目前又来了两个一次性炸弹,使得云顶大马的不确定性太多:
 
1)对 Disney 的诉讼是否能成功,赎回赔偿金
2)投资 Mashpee Wampanoag Tribe (Tribe) 所发行的票据失败的钱能否赎回?(大多impairment loss 都可以赎回,但是比原本账面价值低)
 
如今面对多灾多难的 genm,我认为身处乱局的我们应该站在更高更长远的角度来看云顶大马,站在2028年,我认为云顶大马会越来越好,现在的劫难只是个打折扣。。。但建议投资者如果要买入也要分配好资金,100k的资金可以分三次,一次在星期一(可能的下跌)投入,一次在下次disney 可能的impairment 投入,一次在公司搞定这些课题后投入。

 

http://wislearninvestology.blogspot.com/2018/11/2028.html

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Be the first to like this. Showing 13 of 13 comments

ksng0307

如果有一天回教党执政,到时你就后悔,haha

2018-12-10 15:37

rajachulan

十年?! 十天后的事都不知道。。。还预测十年?

2018-12-10 15:57

lazycat

buy at current price , in 1 year time at least rebound 10 to 20%..
if further drop 10% of current price, then just cut loss..

2018-12-10 16:06

lazycat

domdom , these kind of founders/descendants ceo usually hold more than 50% of total shares, nth u can do about it , they will say if shares price drop, they also rugi , said by that cb face francis yeoh , many people that buy their shares knew about the ceo high salary issue, but investors still buy it because they bet on those ceo can deliver good results...

2018-12-10 16:53

lawboonhan

1.马来西亚十年的变局,谁也无法控制,预测。这也是为何云顶集团爱把资金留在国外,不愿带回来。
2.大马云顶最厉害的武器-拥有国内唯一赌场执照。这一届政府不会改变,下一届如希盟继续执政,改变不是不可能的。大马云顶至少还有5年的平安。
3.利润变薄是无法避免的,客源增加是唯一出路。接下来,得看外国游客流量

2018-12-10 17:59

lazycat

no la , the biggest casino in malaysia is bursa...

2018-12-10 18:33

ramada

If US market crash next year, you even can buy at RM2.00 & below.

2018-12-10 20:42

PotentialGhost

Us market crush can buy at 1.00 , believe me .

2018-12-10 21:09

Wolf_Of_Gaya_Street

talk cock

2018-12-11 06:41

sctan

,云顶败诉 claim 不回资金,不过按照法律的逻辑这个可能性很小。

genting should engage this guy as con-sultant. lol!

2018-12-11 13:30

Albukhary

The following statement are from the above author:-

1)赌场博彩税,将提高至占博彩营收总额的35%,比之前的25%大幅度调高 10%;博彩机器(如老虎机)税,则从总收入的20%提高至30%:

也就是说,pe 中的 earning per share 将下调10%.

I donno whether your Form 5 mathematics passed or failed, but you you mathematics logic above sound incorrect.

Logically, when tax increase from 25% to 35%, it is a huge increment of 40%. Please note that this is tax as Gross Revenue portion, so it will harm the net profit for more than 40%.

Example:-

Gross gambling revenue = 1000m
(Less): Gambling Tax 25% = (250m)
(Less): Operating expenses = (600m)
Net Profit = 150m

Gross gambling revenue = 1000m
(Less): Gambling Tax 35% = (350m)
(Less): Operating expenses = (600m)
Net Profit = 50m

You see the impact?

I'm not sure how much Gambling Revenue compare to its other revenue, but I believe this hike in Gambling Tax really hurt Genting Malaysia profit a lot.

P/S: Please correct me if my understanding above is wrong.

2018-12-12 09:29

Victor Yong

:) Example: impact of gaming tax increase :)

Gross gambling revenue = 1000m
(Less): Gambling Tax 25% = (250m)
(Less): Operating expenses = (200m)
Net Profit = 550m

Gross gambling revenue = 1000m
(Less): Gambling Tax 35% = (350m)
(Less): Operating expenses = (200m)
Net Profit = 450m

2018-12-15 10:59

993954847305139

Albukhary in operating expense high as 600m. The problem is not gambling tax, is operating cost.

2018-12-24 09:44

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