The recently formed alliance between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States called AUKUS means one thing for Indonesia: its defence modernisation plans must be improved to better prepare for any worst-case scenario if peace and stability in the region is at risk.

The AUKUS pact includes the agreement that the US and the UK will help Australia to develop nuclear-powered submarines, as well as enhance their joint capabilities and interoperability.

While China was not mentioned directly in the announcement, it is clear that AUKUS was formed to counter the Asian giant, whose military rise and territorial claims have become a source of regional security concerns in recent years.

China’s recent military rise represents the largest expansion of maritime and aerospace power in several decades. It has grown its long-range missile force, increased its number of bomber aircraft, and modernised its navy into a blue-water force capable of operating globally across the blue oceans.

It also has territorial disputes with its neighbours, including US allies and partners, on land and sea. Those reasons have led the US to pursue strategies to balance against China from gaining too much power and threatening itself and its allies.

Before AUKUS, the US had also formed the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) for the same purpose. Unsurprisingly, China has responded in opposition to both US-led initiatives.

Experts predict that tensions between the two powers will keep increasing after the AUKUS formation.

In response to the AUKUS announcement, Indonesia expressed concerns that Australia’s nuclear-powered submarines programme could aggravate the arms race and power projection in the region.

Indonesia also called all parties concerned to settle their differences peacefully by advancing dialogue. The statement suggests that Indonesia is still in denial of its position amid potential conflicts in the region.

Indonesia has long been a party to these tensions, most notably regarding the territorial disputes in the South China Sea. Parts of China’s unilaterally claimed nine-dash line in the region overlap with Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone north of the Natuna waters.

However, Indonesia has remained a non-claimant state in the disputes, presenting itself as an “honest broker”. By doing so, Indonesia expects to maintain its free and active, as well as non-aligned, foreign policy principles. It hopes to be seen as an impartial mediator in disputes between great powers, of which it does not see itself as a party.

Jakarta also wishes that potential conflicts from the disputes can be effectively avoided by diplomacy, as opposed to military force. However, experience suggests that Indonesia’s diplomacy regarding the disputes has not been effective.

It has submitted a note verbale at the United Nations opposing China’s claims in the South China Sea, citing a 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) ruling. It has summoned the Chinese ambassador to discuss this matter. It has tried to lead Asean to create a unified action over the disputes.

Those have not born fruits, as China has rejected the PCA ruling and maintained its claims in the South China Sea, while Asean has never reached consensus over this matter.

Recently, Natuna fishermen reported that they had run into six Chinese vessels, including destroyer Kunming-172, on Sept 13. The Indonesian Navy has told the fishermen not to worry if they bump into foreign vessels in the Natuna Sea because innocent passage is permitted under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCOLS).

However, it should be noted that the law of the sea also forbids foreign vessels from doing harm to the country or breaking any of its laws when passing through its waters.

Even if Indonesia still does not perceive China as a threat, the AUKUS announcement is expected to further increase tensions in the region - where Indonesia is caught in the crosshairs of potential conflicts.

Unfortunately, Indonesia is unprepared to defend itself when such conflicts occur. As much as its diplomatic efforts have been fruitless and its embrace of Asean has been unavailing, its military force is also sadly inadequate at present.

The Indonesian Navy’s combatants only consist of four submarines, seven frigates, 24 corvettes and several smaller attack/patrol craft. Meanwhile, the Air Force’s combat force only consists of 49 fighters and multirole combat aircraft, as well as several light attack and training aircraft.

Not only is that inventory not sufficient to defend Indonesia’s maritime and airspace territory, but it is also fraught with various problems.

Many of the weapon systems are aging, having been in service for more than three decades. Many have low readiness. The inventory is highly diversified, complicating interoperability between weapon systems.

It also lacks command and control capabilities. To deal with these problems, Indonesia has pursued various defense modernization plans, including the Navy and Air Force. There have been several positive developments regarding its arms procurement plans.

Recently, it has secured a frigate design licence from UK company Babcock. However, some of the plans may be delayed by funding barriers, including the negotiations for Rafale fighter jets with French company Dassault.

In their recent journal article, Iis Gindarsah and Adhi Priamarizki discussed the stagnation in the Indonesian Navy and Air Force modernisation, which stemmed from several reasons, such as inefficient bureaucracy, lack of commitment from the government, limited economic resources and different modernization priorities at the military unit level.

Only by solving these issues and improving defence modernisation plans will Indonesia be better prepared for potential conflicts pitting the US-led alliance and China in the region. We cannot depend solely on diplomacy, but our military capability too.

*** The writer is a lecturer in security studies at the Department of International Relations at Binus University, Jakarta. The views expressed are his own.

   - ANN