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Asia FX, stocks weaken as Fed rate cut bets shift; rupiah hits four-year low

Tan KW
Publish date: Tue, 16 Apr 2024, 04:34 PM
Tan KW
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The Indonesian rupiah tumbled to a four-year low on Tuesday after a weeklong holiday, as persistent strength in the greenback after a hawkish repricing of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations continued to pressure Asian currencies.

The rupiah depreciated by 2.27% to 16,200.00 per US dollar, its lowest level since early April 2020, prompting Bank Indonesia to intervene in the domestic forex market.

Equities in Jakarta dipped as much as 3%, marking their biggest percentage loss since early July 2022. 

Indonesian markets reopened after the Eid al-Fitr festival, which marks the end of Ramadan.

The country's most recent inflation data showed the annual inflation rate accelerated more than expected in March to 3.05%, the quickest since August 2023.

The rupiah has already lost nearly 5% in value this year and is among the worst performers in the region after political turmoil during the presidential elections raised questions about the country's fiscal outlook.

"While BI has waded into the market, the move is prudently aimed at jawboning the USD-IDR lower and smoothing volatility instead of capping FX weakness," Nicholas Chia, Asia macro strategist at Standard Chartered told Reuters.

The US dollar hit a five-month high on Tuesday against major peer currencies on hotter-than-expected US retail sales data for March. The greenback had also gained nearly 2% last week as data showed US consumer prices increased more than expected in March, forcing most Southeast Asian currencies to trade on the back foot.  

The Fed's shift to hawkish rhetoric in the March meeting minutes, along with the strong data, led to investors pricing in a rate cut in September rather than in June.

In Southeast Asia, the Indian rupee dropped to a record low at the open and largely traded flat by 0649 GMT. The Malaysian ringgit and the Philippine peso followed suit to give up over 0.3% each.

Equities across the region were in a sea of red, with stocks in Singapore falling more than 1%, while those in Seoul, Taipei and Manila slid more than 2%, each.

In Vietnam, the dong depreciated as much as 0.38% to 25,275 per dollar, hitting its lowest level on record for a second session in a row.

In China, Southeast Asia's largest trading partner, data showed the economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter, offering some relief to officials as they try to shore up growth in the face of protracted weakness in the property sector and mounting local government debt.

The Chinese yuan was largely unchanged while shares in Shanghai lost over 1%.

 


  - Reuters

 

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