Stocks in Asia are set to edge lower after a sluggish day on Wall Street, as traders look to Nvidia Corp.’s results for clues on whether the artificial-intelligence euphoria that’s powered the bull market has more room to run.

Futures for equity benchmarks in Tokyo, Hong Kong and Sydney pointed down, and those for the US also nudged lower in early trading. The giant chipmaker is set to report earnings after Wednesday’s session, with investors waiting to see whether the AI darling will at least match lofty estimates.

Investors are gearing up for big swings in Nvidia’s shares after the $3.2 trillion company led by Jensen Huang reports. Trading in the options market implies a nearly 10% move in either direction on the day following the results. The stock has rallied about 160% this year and 1,000% from its October 2022 bear-market low.

To Chris Senyek at Wolfe Research, Nvidia’s results will set the tone for markets before a key US payrolls report on Sept. 6.

“We remain bullish, but risks are now skewed to the downside over the very near-term,” Senyek said. “From a seasonal perspective, we enter a weaker period that is even more amplified in election years.”

In other markets, Bitcoin fell below the $60,000 level early Wednesday as part of a broad crypto market retreat that included a sharp drop in second-largest token Ether. Oil gained.

The S&P 500 edged higher to around 5,625 on Tuesday while the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3%. A closely watched gauge of chipmakers added 1.1%. Nvidia climbed 1.5%. Super Micro Computer Inc. slid 2.6% after Hindenburg Research said it’s short the maker of server equipment.

Treasury 10-year yields rose one basis point to 3.83% and a $69 billion US sale of two-year notes was well-received. 

With questions swirling around Federal Reserve policy, the state of the economy and the US presidential race, at least one thing seems clear on Wall Street: spending on AI is still key.

Concerns about the returns of those investments recently contributed to a tech selloff, although that dip was readily bought. AI hardware and chip companies have led the bounce in the Nasdaq 100 from its August low, with Nvidia up about 30%.

Nvidia accounts for more than 6% of the S&P 500’s market cap in terms of its index weight, so “it’s increasingly a bigger component of where the trend and momentum of the market goes,” Matt Stucky of Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management told Bloomberg Surveillance. If the giant chipmaker fails to deliver, or even just meets expectations, “I think it’s more of a risk-off environment,” he said, “not necessarily fuel for rotation.”

Analysts, on average, are predicting that the giant chipmaker will project revenue growth of more than 70% for the current quarter. Some are estimating an even larger surge. Nvidia’s results and forecast also will serve as a barometer for AI spending across much of the technology industry. 

On the economic front, data showed US consumer confidence rose to a six-month high in August as more upbeat views of the economy and inflation offset waning optimism about the labor market.

While the S&P 500 is now nearly back to its all-time high in the wake of Powell’s recent dovish message, underlying risk premia are still somewhat larger than before the July correction began and the previously all-conquering “AI” narrative still is yet to fully recover, according to Jonas Goltermann at Capital Economics.

“Provided that the US economy manages a soft landing, as we continue to anticipate, and enthusiasm around AI rebounds further, we forecast the S&P 500 will hit 6,000 by the end of the year,” he said.

  - Bloomberg