Highlights:
Performance bond, also known as a contract bond, is a surety bond issued by bank (or paid by contractor using cash) to guarantee satisfactory completion of a project by a contractor. It is a refundable deposit and normally can be refunded after defect liability period (DLP) which is normally 12-24 months. Mmode has paid the H2O project performance bond using their cash (save interest cost) and it is parked under other receivables.
The Enterprise value (EV) of Mmode is extremely low due to its high cash level and EV / EBITDA also very low (indicate high margin of safety and what I like Mmode is not due to their CASH but more to its earning growth from construction considering its small market capital and experiences of the new big sharehoder, Mr Ong Chee keon.
The above photo shows H2O project progress as per mid of June 2018 (exterior seem completed, doing interior touch up). The progress of H2O indicates their future revenue and profit in 2018.
At 28/02/2018
Source: Q3’18 report
With most of the earning converted to cash, total cash include prepayment of bond is RM59.4M, converted 36.4 sen per share (with Zero borrowing)
At 31/08/2017 (6 months ago, started H2O construction project in May 2017)
Source: Q2’18 report
At 31/03/2017 (12 months ago) (not yet involve in H2O, other receivable amount is 0.57M only)
Source: Q1’18 report
Prospect and Fair value for 2018 (remaining 9 months)
Let us have a look on the profit forecast (remaining 9 months of 2018) based on its construction orderbook and mobile contents segments as below:
Construction Projects |
Estimated net profit margin |
Net profit |
H2O Ara damansara (*about 40M outstanding) |
6% (based on past 3 qtr reports average) |
2.4M |
RM6.64m of Earthworks and Ancillary Sitework (*about 3M outstanding) |
6% (based on past 3 qtr reports average) |
0.18M |
*= estimated from their qtr reports.
Estimated Total net profit from construction = RM2.58M (9 months)
Mobile contents from Axiata |
Estimated net profit margin |
Net profit |
Axiata Project |
32% (based on past 3 qtr reports average) |
2.8M (32%)
|
Estimated Total net profit from Mobile contents = RM2.8M (9 months)
Estimated Total net profit from both construction & Mobile contents = RM5.38M (9 month only)
For 12 months (including Q3 of FY2018 ended 28 Feb 2018) = 5.38M + 1.517M = 6.9M
RM6.9M translated to EPS 4.2 sen. With forward 9-month PEx of 10x, the fair value based on EPS of 4.2 of Mmode is 42 sen. Bear in mind Mmode is a holding 50.2M cash (cash per share is 31 sen excluding performance bond prepayment) with zero borrowing.
With consideration of only 50% of its cash, there are high margin of safety and the fair value can reach 50sen.
This is assuming that no contribution from their new awarded Sabah RM260M project in 2018.
For FY2019-2020
RM260.6M award from Tititaya for 24-storey mixed commercial development in Kota Kinabalu (maybe only start in the end of 2018 (start to contribute in 2019, 2020 and 2021) |
6-7% |
15.6M |
Risk
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Disclaimer:
This writing is based on my own assumptions and estimations. It is strictly for sharing purpose, not a buy or sell call of the company.
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Valuegrowth45
Good analysis. This is in line with my estimate that M-Mode fair value should be above 50 sen.
What really interest me is who took up the balance 17% of M-Mode share at 57 sen. My guess is Titijaya related companies/ individuals but this cannot be confirmed at this point. Will this new shareholder/s bring more opportunity to M-Mode in terms of new projects or injection of new business?
Can anyone help to shed some light on this.
2018-06-29 21:52