Logic Trading Analysis

KIMHIN - MONSTER ALIVE FROM EARTH

Logic Trading Analysis
Publish date: Mon, 23 Nov 2015, 11:26 PM
Not just TA or FA analysis, Logic Analysis will show more magic in Bursa Malaysia Stocks !

KIMHIN (5371) have come into our coverage after we monitor the price around RM 2.00 and its get our attention more now. We been mentioned this stock since last week 18/11/2015 in our telegram free groups, today close at RM 2.44. 

After I mentioned this company, I quickly swim out from middle of the sea and go to visit this one of their factory past weekend.
 

 

(By looking at their company outlook, well maintain even the flower also nice, it's a sign they have lots of money to do maintenance, company are doing well) 

 

 

KIM HIN INDUSTRY BERHAD, is a very old and strong company, its have been go through at least a few generation already. What business they do you should google yourself. I here to share something might cannot google out. And I believe it's time for KIMHIN to super shine once again.  Lets look at the stock price:

 

 

In 90's, KIM HIN was a super expensive stock that value more than RM 10. From the chart I manage to get, the price show during 1995, it was trading at RM 18.00 !! Now you should know, how why I call this a Monster. And it's awake from the earth after long buried. 

Why this Monster suddenly awake once again? This you must read a bit from this news yourself:


Kim Hin acquired United Kingdom-based Norcros Industry Pty Ltd, one of the major importers and distributors of Johnson Tiles in Australia, for some RM6.9mil last year.

Refer :

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/09/01/Kim-Hin-to-promote-Johnson-Tiles/?style=biz

 

 

Lets get back some picture for my visit first before I explain more detail why this Monster may worth a look seriously. Over the weekend, staff are still working, and do you see that, it's clay or soil that can turn into $$$$$$. Those are very low cost stuff and its locally available, and exported in USD when turn into beautiful MOSAIC ! Interesting !
 

 

Busy busy busy ! So many staff doing work in the weekend, many businesss?? 

 

I quick quick ask one of the staff, recently very busy ka? Weekend masih kerja. The staff just reply yah many kerja. Hahahahaha.. Thanks his hardworking contribution.  

 

 

 

As the Director, Chua said group earnings are expected to improve with the falling liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) price, which had dropped to RM2.37 from RM2.50 per kg in June and RM3.50 per kg before the plunge of global crude oil prices late last year.

As the company’s Kuching plant consumes an average of 800 tonnes of LPG a month, he said the fuel price reduction would translate into savings of some RM10 million a year, thereby boosting its profit margin. The fuel expenditure made up about 35% of the plant’s operational costs. Save RM 10 Million = Earn extra RM 10 Million !! Equal to last quarter result RM 10 Million !! That is a big saving !
 

 

Talking about their doing export business, look like busy loading their stock up to container, good business yo? Let us have a quick testing, how much KIMHIN should worth : 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

By looking at latest 2 quarter result, 

 

1st quarter RM 11 Million               = EPS 7.86 CENT

2nd quarter RM 10.6 Million           = EPS 7.18 CENT

3rd quarter (upcoming) RM 7 Mil    = EPS 4.44 CENT

4th quarter (next coming) RM 7 Mil = EPS 4.44 CENT
 

(I put lower estimate for Third and Fourth quarter just to not too over positive let say a RM 7 Million is good enough:)

 

Total EPS = RM 0.2392 Cent. By PE 10 = RM 2.392 !! If PE 12 RM 2.87, If PE 15 RM 3.58.

 

This estimation are already put their result as low as RM 7 Mil, what if upcoming result got more than RM 10 Million??? 


Another things are their retain earning are very high ! Already can give 1:1 Bonus if the company want to !

 

As a conclusion after our visit and finding, 

1. KIMHIN business back on track and expanding fast.

2. KIMHIN doing export business benefit if USD up.

3. Trading at low PE now but company growing.

4. Nett Cash Company, very low small debt, huge cash and other investment. 
5. Fuel and gas price drop, help lower a lot cost.

6. I just brought RM 6k of their mosaic for house renovation. 
7. Balance sheet show ready for BONUS issues ! Wish they give !

8. Major development are still in progress, mosaic are still major building material to be use. 

 

My first TP RM 2.80, second TP RM 3.50, third TP RM 4.80 (pe 20), based on weaker result estimation. 

 

If post better result, KIMHIN this monster will meletup kuat !!
 

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2 people like this. Showing 11 of 11 comments

Logic Trading Analysis

you all did not do detail analysis. u will missed this train.

2015-11-23 23:42

JT Yeo

WTF never know flowers has anything to do with the company performance, u should check the toilet too.

2015-11-24 04:14

JT Yeo

I think i can go around all the companies in bursa, all give them PE 10-12, 80% will be undervalued

2015-11-24 04:18

AllWin

Profit should be consistent at 10-11M after the Australia company acquisition last year. Reasonable pe is 10-12 for current economic. Thanks for analysis.

2015-11-24 07:09

pingdan

Too much part of the profit of kimhin consists of investment income.

See below:

30/6/2015 3.3mil out of 10mil consist of fair value gain on investment
31/3/2015 2.45mil out of 11.1mil consist of fair value gain on investment
31/12/2014 2.8mil out of 5.8mil consist of fair value gain on investment
30/9/2014 3.1mil out of 1.28mil consist of fair value gain on investment

From the latest rolling 4 quarter, 11.65mil (EPS7.9sen) out of 28.18mil (EPS19.32 sen) consists of fair value gain on investment, which is 41% of the company profit.
Hence the real earning for Kimhin business is EPS11.42sen.

Are kimhin doing business of investment? You buying kimhin because of investment income or their business.

Currently, the company trading at RM2.56 and the rolling 4 quarter for EPS11.42sen, which mean the company currently trading at PE22.42.

Cannot ignore that Kimhin have expansion in Australia, drop in oil price will help the cost of sales decrease and usd earning trading but because of the price now trading at PE22.4, I dont tink it is a good investment.

Just my own opinion. Im might be wrong. Trade at your own risk

2015-11-24 13:43

yktay1

Thanks for sharing

2015-11-24 14:35

Logic Trading Analysis

KIMHIN result better than my blog's expectation !! Hurray !!
6:12PM KIMHIN Nine-month net profit 31.690 million (increased 51.30%)
Revenue RM 91,817 Mil (Increase!) Net profit RM 9,945 Mil (increase!) EPS 6.79 cent ..woahhhhhh !

2015-11-25 19:05

Ben Gan

KimHin looks a good bet. It's FA & TA are in accord. At RM2.23, it has further upside going forward. Thanks for a good analysis , LTA

2015-12-23 04:11

soros228

Well said. Currently in the process of taking over Johan Ceramic.

2015-12-23 07:57

paperplane2016

The gas price just announced increased, bad news??

2016-01-03 00:39

cumcumshot

Interesting write up from Logic. Just wonder how you could visit the factory, are you related person to Chua? Instead of going up and up, my guess is KImHin will be privatised by Chua.

2016-01-26 08:32

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