• Maintain SELL and MYR5.60 TP, 25% downside with 2% FY19F yield. Petron Malaysia’s FY18 core earnings came below our expectations due to weak refining margins, especially soft gasoline margins that stemmed from the oversupply in the global market. We maintain our forecasts and TP, which is pegged to 9x FY19 P/E. Refining margins are expected to remain weak in 2019, hampered by a low gasoline product spread.

• 4Q18 results are below expectations. The company’s 4Q18 core loss of MYR81m took FY18 earnings to MYR177m, below our and Street estimates, at 55.8% and 55.9% of full-year projections. The major negative variance to our forecast was largely due to weaker-than-expected refining margins and volume of product sold. DPS for FY18 was at MYR0.20.

• Weak margins coupled with weaker volume. Petron’s 4Q18 core loss of MYR81m, vs profit in 4Q17, was mainly due to lower sales volumes. This, in turn, was no thanks to maintenance works conducted at its Port Dickson refinery and lower refining margins, which were largely dragged by weak product prices (especially gasoline margins). In FY19, core profit plunged 58% YoY despite the revenue growth, due to weaker refining margins – mainly from the squeeze in gasoline margins amidst an oversupply.

• Despite a recent weakness in oil prices, refining margins globally have declined significantly, with the Tapis Crude 211 crack spread (with product prices including a mix of gasoline and diesel) plunging to USD3.5/bbl, based on latest observations. We believe the major drag in margins was due to high gasoline inventory in the US and Singapore, as well as the increase in China’s export quota. We believe the situation will persist in 2019, with overall demand for refined products remaining similar while supply is likely to stay oversized.

• No expansion in refining capacity in the near term. In early 2018, the group publicly stated that it was considering expanding its refining capacity by 90,000bpd – on top of the existing 80,000bpd capacity – at an estimated cost of USD3.5bn. In view of the weak 2019 refining margins, we do not expect this exercise to be rolled out over the next 1-2 years. This is a relief to us, as a significant near-term expansion in capacity might result in a higher overhang on Petron Malaysia’s earnings base, due to the expected weak market ahead. Nevertheless, continuous upgrading works would still be done on its existing refining facility in order for it to upgrade its gasoline products to Euro 5M by 2020 – in line with the Government’s target.

Source: RHB Securities Research - 22 Feb 2019