IN this article, I wish to explain my prediction that Perikatan Nasional (PN) under the leadership of Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, will easily win the 15th General Election, with a two-thirds majority.

At the end of this article, I will paint some scenarios for the choices Malaysians may have to make with this in mind.

Whether the election is called in two years’ time or a few months after Aug 1, 2021, the result will favor PN. PN is very strong now and will reach its pinnacle of strength when it dominates Umno.

The following are my reasons for this inevitable result that I foresee.

Firstly, PN got Budget 2021 approved and that brings in the power of buying influence with projects, lucrative appointments and more projects. The Emergency was the last jigsaw puzzle for them to use the money without being questioned by anyone under the penalty of dire consequences.

The war chest is full.

Secondly, PN will, in a few weeks or months, finally “own” Umno, its number one friend and enemy.

Once again, the Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) has pulled the rug from its friends; first was Pakatan Harapan, then its founder Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and now, Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and Co.

And with a minority Government, Muhyiddin declared an Emergency.

Most critics have argued that the Emergency is of no use to fight the pandemic when present laws and agencies are well equipped to handle it. Two weeks on, the Emergency powers have not helped reduce COVID-19 numbers.

But it has definitely bought precious time to influence the Umno division heads to their side. For all Umno people’s grand shouting of Menjaga Maruah Melayu dan Islam (upholding Malay dignity and Islam), the currency is still money, projects, titles, positions and Mercedes Benz.

Thus, with Umno under its armpit, Bersatu will dictate the lion’s share of Dewan Rakyat seats, with Umno a meager second and PAS with a number almost equal to Umno.

In essence, Umno the lion has become Umno the begging mouse.

Umno’s folly, Pakatan’s infighting

Third, the stupid infighting within Pakatan Rakyat has made PN’s work of getting Yang di-Pertuan Agong’s consent easier.

Who in their right mind would give PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and Pakatan the trust to govern? Anwar only controls about 90 seats, excluding others who are with Parti Pejuang Tanah Air and Parti Warisan Sabah.

As long as Anwar, Mahathir and Shafie act like dogs quarreling over the shadow of a bone in the water, all of them will drown together.

Fourthly, the Malays have grown and is thriving unchallenged. Most of the middle-class Malays are busy looking for non-SOP mosques to pray, paying ustaz to teach them how to read the Qur’an better and pray many prayers, the Malays are entrenched with such party as PAS.

That is why the Kedah Menteri Besar Muhmmad Sanusi Md Nor’s silly antics and outburst have not brought on any comments from the Malay academia, NGO’s or even middle-class individuals.

The alcohol issue, LGBT and soon the Act 355 will make certain that PAS delivers the ‘Islamic Heaven’ to Malays in their lifetime.

Progressive Muslim thinkers in Parti Amanah Negara, Muslim Youth Movement of Malaysia (ABIM), IKRAM and public universities are keeping quiet waiting for God knows what. They should review the Qur’anic Verse that Allah only help those who strive hardest to change themselves.

If these NGO’s, political parties and intellectuals do not present the Malay voters with a different narrative of an inclusive and a developmental Islam like what the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is doing, then Malaysia will be entrenched in a Talibanised state in less than a decade.

PAS has been given a blank check to do whatever it wants, with the Malays lapping them all up to go to heaven.

Fifth, the civil society, with all their good and honest intentions for a progressive and liberal Malaysia, will inevitably strengthen the Islam-under-threat narrative.

The main weakness of civil society fighters is their failure to understand war strategies and tactics of engagement.

First, they work as individuals and secondly, they never change their communication and engagement methods. For 20 years, I have seen good and righteous civil society leaders worked hard and spoke loudly for their causes but unchanged in their speaking and engagement methodology.

The more they speak and act, the more PAS gains in support.

Thus, with all those reasons and with the support of public university academics in upholding Islamic conservatism, PN will win in a walk. They will enjoy two-thirds majority. They have already proven their strength in Sabah and they have loyal friends with Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) in Sarawak. The election, to me, is a foregone conclusion.

Want to win, Pakatan? Offer a better deal to East Malaysians

What, therefore, can change the outcome of this prediction?

First, if Anwar were to present to Sabah and Sarawak what I have been saying all along, then there is a chance of a Pakatan victory. I have said that Pakatan must offer the prime minister and deputy PM posts to both Sabah and Sarawak, with 50% Cabinet posts for those two nations.

This will drastically shift the Malay-Muslim narrative by force and take the wind out of the Peninsula extremists. The future of Malaysia depends entirely on a change of narrative about Malaysia for Malaysians and not just for Malays only. But, will Anwar give up his claim to the premiership? I don’t think so, but I will be most happy if I am proven wrong.

Secondly, if the Islamic NGO’s team up with Amanah and work hard at flooding the social media and prime media with a counter narrative, then there is a glimmer of hope for the Pakatan. If they still stay on the sidelines, Amanah will not get a single seat because Malaysians won’t vote for it anymore.

Finally, if civil society wake up and smell the roses and rethink their strategy as in a war game instead of in their idealistic world, that can help the other two efforts significantly to reforge the meaning of Malaysia.

What if the three changes do not occur? What then is the option for Malaysian to salvage the idealism of their country? Malaysians must think strategically when their political parties and NGO’s fail them.

Malaysians must ensure that MCA and MIC win most of their seats so that the two can become kingmakers and as a powerful balance against PAS’ extremism.

Thus, Malaysians, these are the challenges ahead. What will we do or should do for the best of our children and their future? We may have to make a choice which we don’t like but that may be the only choice we have. – Jan 30, 2021

Prof Mohd Tajuddin Mohd Rasdi is a professor at a local university. This article first appeared at Sin Chew news portal.

https://focusmalaysia.my/opinion/perikatan-nasional-to-win-handsomely-next-general-election-unless/