• Energy and Bank stocks led the global stock market over the past three weeks, as Technology, Healthcare and REIT stocks lagged global benchmarks. As of 31 Dec, DBS, OCBC & UOB made up 45% of the STI weightings, compared to the FTSE All-World Index that maintained a 7% weighting to Banks and a 25% weighting to Technology. This has seen the STI generate a 5.5% return, while conversely, the FTSE All-World Index declined 5.5% over the past three weeks.
   
• DBS, OCBC and UOB have averaged 10% gains over the past three weeks, with S$678 million in combined net institutional inflows. This was a key part of the S$705 million in total net institutional inflows into Singapore-listed stocks over the past three weeks, while the Semi-related/Technology stocks recorded net institutional outflows.
   
• After the banks, Singtel saw the next highest net institutional inflows over the three weeks with S$124 million of inflows and a 7% share price gain over the three weeks. Back in Nov, Singtel attributed its 1HFY21 (to 30 Sep) turnaround net profit to its ongoing strategic reset to develop new growth engines in ICT and digital services.
   
• Brent Crude Oil has gained by 13% over the past three weeks, with RH Petrogas and Rex International gaining 11% and 5% over the three weeks. Geo Energy Resources has gained 6%, with the Energy trio also recipient to combined net institutional inflows over the three weeks.

Global inflation concerns have seen Energy stocks and Bank stocks lead the global stock market for the first three weeks of 2022. In the meantime, Technology and Healthcare stocks, in addition to REITs have lagged global benchmarks. Given the STI’s strong weighting to Banks, the Singapore benchmark has ranked the third strongest of major benchmarks over the past three weeks, closely following the Brazil and Hong Kong Indices.  As of the end of December, the three banks made up 45% of the STI weightings. By comparison the benchmark for global stocks, the FTSE All-World Index, maintains a 7% weight to Banks and a 25% weighting to Technology. Hence, for the first three weeks of the year, the STI generated a 5.5% return, while conversely, the FTSE All-World Index has declined 5.5%.

DBS Group Holdings , Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation, and United Overseas Bank which make up 20% of the combined market value of all stocks listed on SGX, have each seen similar net institutional inflows in 2022 which have totaled a combined S$678 million. This has been on the back of a further 25bps upward shift in the 2/10 UST Yield Curve, following on from the 60 bps upward structural shift seen in 2021. Since the end of 2021, expectations of the US Fed Reserve lifting interest rates at the 16 March FOMC have increased from 50% to 88% (based on the CME FedWatch Tool). Rotation to the Banks has been a key driver of the total net institutional inflows into Singapore-listed stocks over the past three weeks totalling S$705 million. Of the 100 most traded stocks in Singapore over the past three weeks, the 10 stocks that saw the highest net institutional inflows over the three weeks are table below.

Source: SGX, Refinitiv, Bloomberg (Data as of 21 Jan 2022)

After the Banks, Singapore Telecommunications (Singtel) has seen the next highest net institutional inflows over the past three weeks with S$124 million of net institutional inflows and a 7% gain in its share price. Singtel reported back on 11 Nov that its 1HFY22 (ended 30 Sep) net profit more than doubled YoY to S$954 million, and attributed the result to its ongoing strategic reset to develop new growth engines in information and communications technology (ICT) and digital services. Singtel’s ICT arm, NCS, has changed its revenue mix significantly over those six months ending 30 Sep, growing its digital revenue by 37% YoY, which now contributes 48% to NCS’ total revenue. For the 25 APAC Telecommunication stocks with a market value of more than US$10 billion, Singtel ranked among the top five performers over the past three weeks, after ranking among the top 10 performers of the 25 in the last six months of 2021.

Sembcorp Industries has also ranked among the 10 stocks that have seen the highest net institutional inflows over the past three weeks, while also ranking among the 10 stocks that saw the highest net institutional inflows in 2021. The stock gained 11% over the past three weeks and will be reporting its FY21 (ended 31 Dec) results before the Wed 23 Feb open. Since the Group reported its 1HFY21 (ended 30 June) turnaround net profit of S$46 million (compared to a net loss of S$42 million in 1HFY20) it has pressed on with the strategic transformation of its portfolio from brown to green energy, which includes the announcement on 14 Dec that its wholly-owned subsidiary Sembcorp Energy UK, was planning to build Europe’s largest battery energy storage system to help the UK achieve its Net Zero target. Wilmar International also ranked among the 10 stocks that have seen the highest net institutional inflows over the past three weeks, and on 20 Jan provided an update on the proposed IPO of the Adani Wilmar Limited.

Like Banks stocks, Energy stocks have led global stocks over the past three weeks, with Brent Crude Oil gaining 13% since 31 Dec. The two oil and gas explorer and producer stocks listed on SGX that are have ranked amongst the 50 most traded Singapore stocks this year, RH Petrogas and Rex International gained 11% and 5% over the three weeks. Geo Energy Resources has gained 6% over the past three weeks and on 21 Jan, the company reported that the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources gave notification on 20 Jan for the lifting of the coal export sales ban for 139 coal mining companies, which includes which includes the Group’s operating coal mines, PT Sungai Danau Jaya, PT Tanah Bumbu Resources and PT Bumi Enggang Khatulistiwa. Close to 60% of Geo Energy Resources 1HFY21 (ended 30 June) revenue was associated with exports to China. Combined these three stocks have seen S$10 million a day in trading turnover so far this year, close to what City Developments sees in daily turnover, however the trio RH Petrogas and Rex International and Geo Energy Resources maintained a combined market value which is only one-sixth the size of City Developments. All three were Energy plays recipients to net institutional inflows over the three weeks. Moreover, Geo Energy Resources saw the highest net institutional inflows proportionate to market capitalisation, of the 100 most traded stocks by turnover. Of the 100 stocks, Rex International and RH Petrogas ranked sixth and seventh by highest net institutional inflows proportionate to market capitalisation over the three weeks.

For technology stocks, 2021 was a bumper year for the semiconductor industry in terms of global demand and share price performances, which has seen some retracement of those gains over the past three weeks, with the Philadelphia SOX declining 13%following the 44% gains of 2021. This has seen as many as four technology stocks draw the most net institutional outflows among the 100 most traded stocks of the past three weeks.

 Source: SGX, Refinitiv, Bloomberg (Data as of 21 Jan 2022).

The most 100 traded stocks by turnover over the past three weeks are tabled below. Note the table does not include the two debutants from last week - Vertex Technology Acquisition Corporation and Pegasus Asia, both special purpose acquisition companies.

 Source: SGX, Refinitiv, Bloomberg (Data as of 21 Jan 2022). Note the above table does not include the two SPACs - Vertex Technology Acquisition Corporation and Pegasus Asia that listed last week.