Value Investing
[转贴] ThermoFisher - 长期投资真的能赚钱吗？
ss20_20
Publish date: Sat, 01 Aug 2015, 08:08 AM
ss20_20
0 155
坚守长期价值投资, 催化复利累进效应, 实现财务自主与享受写意人生
Value Investing & Joys of Compounding
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以下纯粹个人投资收集与记录，且本人非专业分析员，买卖亏盈自负。
The articles here solely the collection or opinion of the author and do not represent professional advice in investment
Value Investing & Joys of Compounding
___________________________________________________________________
以下纯粹个人投资收集与记录，且本人非专业分析员，买卖亏盈自负。
The articles here solely the collection or opinion of the author and do not represent professional advice in investment
长期投资真的能赚钱吗？
最近被人问到，长期投资真的能赚钱吗？我说能，前提是选对公司，他又问到，那你的买价是多少？由于我是每年重新计算回报率，所以我需要另外计算才能得知答 案；我至 2003 年开始投资马股，回报率只是属于中规中矩，偶尔也会大起大落，虽然如此，我所获得的股息从 2011 年至今已趋向稳定，即使不工作也不卖 股，也已经足够应付我每年的开销。
我不是属于那种很会分析公司，财务报表，行业前景的外行人，你们大概也从未见过我在论坛详细分析一家公司；可能是因为如此，我偶尔也会买到错的公司，或以错的价格去买对的公司；无论如何，这 12 年里，我还是成功生存下来，也因为投资股票让我达到财务自由。
Comment:
鱼大真的是长期投资忧质股的好榜样。他的免费股 LPI 是组合大功臣，股息高，5 年与自1993 上市 22 年 total return 的 CAGR 分别是 21.6% 与 25.7%！
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Discussions
2 people like this. Showing 9 of 9 comments
长期投资不一定赚钱，如果买到劣股或半途变质的好股，那可是越长期就越亏。亲身经历的例子就有多年前的transmile， 近期的Notion(长期大出血股)。
CIMB, Genting=长期持有却还是小亏股。
“长期投资好股一定赚钱”该是比軙穏当的说法。即使不小心高价买入好股，只要长期持有，钱还是有得赚的。亲身经历的例子就有LPl，PBB，MBB。
你同意吗？
2015-08-01 09:52
“至今股息已趋向稳定(通过持有优质股息股)，即使不工作，也已经足够应付我每年的开销。”
以上是我多年的梦想。原文的主人已经达到目标，我还在努力中。你呢?
2015-08-01 10:03
亲身经历分享：
与原文主人擁有同样的目标＝靠股息达财務自由，我雖更早入市，为何却还在浮沉。就主要原因是我有时会失去最初的自律，隨风投资高风险股，卻速而不达也。
所以我的劝告是只买入公认的优质股息股市，即使估价比較高，只要长期持有，达标的机率肯定是高过一般股市‘达人’。
例子：LPl，MBB，PB，DlGl，lGBReit。
2015-08-01 10:23
Put it this way, long term investing needs two ingredients. 1. Compounding 2. Cheapness.
By right yes, it is ok to buy great companies at a fair price, but you have to define what is 'fair'. If you look at nifty-fifty stocks where everyone go crazy for companies like Xerox, GE etc back in the 70s, they are quality, but if you bought at those price it will take you 20-30 years to recoup your investment and make a decent return. Decent return i mean return similar to broad index.
And another thing about quality stocks such as digi, GAB, Nestle, Dlady. They are considered quality because of their strong track record, therefore they are considered 'large cap' stocks in Malaysia. Their ability to grow in the future is likely to be slow, perhaps close to Malaysia GDP growth rate, unless they have overseas operation. In that sense, if you buy quality companies at a 'fair' price, you need to make sure it is 'fair' and need to make sure the company will continue to do well 10-15 years from now. Any misstep it is very likely you are going to lag behind broad index return.
Conclusion is, what is your desired return? If you are asking for 10%, which is the CAGR return for KLCI for past 30 years, it makes no sense to invest in quality stocks. If you are asking for 15-20%, you have to make sure those quality stocks can deliver that return to you in the long run.
2015-08-03 07:16
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2015-08-01 08:32