Data Highlights
 

• The labour market sustained its positive momentum, witnessing a consistent increase in employment across the country. Employment growth marked 2.0% YoY and 0.2% MoM rise in January 2024, resulting in a total workforce of 16.48mn individuals.

• By economic sector, the number of employed persons in the Services sector remained increasing, notably in Wholesale & retail trade; Food & beverage services; and Transportation & storage activities. A similar trend was also observed in the number of employed persons in the Manufacturing, Construction and Mining & quarrying sectors in January 2024. The number of employed persons in the Agriculture sector rebounded during the month compared to last month.

• The largest composition of employed persons remained in the ‘Employees’ category, comprising 75.2% of all employed individuals. This category saw an annual increase of 1.3%, equating to 155.12k new employees, bringing the total to approximately 12.39mn individuals. Similarly, the own-account workers category displayed a similar upward trend, with a YoY increase of 4.7% reaching a total of 3.01mn persons during the month, up from 2.88mn persons in January last year.

• Meantime, the number of unemployed persons continued its decline, decreasing by 4.8% YoY to 567.3k individuals (Jan 2023: 596.1k persons), heading towards the pre-pandemic levels of 519k in 2019. On a monthly basis, the number of unemployed persons decreased by 0.2%. During the month, the jobless rate stood at 3.3%, the same rate seen in the previous month.

• The labour force (encompassing both employed and unemployed individuals) saw MoM expansion of 0.2% or a YoY growth of 1.8% in January 2024, reaching a total of 17.05mn individuals. This growth suggests a healthy level of engagement in the labour market, with a labour force participation rate of 70.2%.

• Meanwhile, the number of individuals outside the labour force remained relatively stable on an annual basis, but there was a minimal MoM decrease of 0.01%, totaling 7.23mn persons. Among those outside the labour force, 42.5% cited housework and family responsibilities as their primary reason for not participating in the labour market, followed closely by schooling and training at 40.8%.

• Our view: We anticipate the jobless rate to continue its downward trend, likely averaging at 3.2% this year. The rate is expected to fluctuate between 3.3% and 3.1%, with the labour force and employment numbers projected to increase by 2.1% and 2.2%, respectively. Meanwhile, unemployment is expected to decrease by 4.1% this year.

Source: TA Research - 11 Mar 2024