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A Fragile Market

Jack Kong
Publish date: Mon, 29 Jun 2020, 12:21 AM

在 Strong KLCI Has Reached The Pressure Zone 后,差不多过了两三个交易日就立即下跌了,而这个的跌幅快又狠,我猜想基本上让很多人都来不及逃。然而,基于这点就出现了后续的横盘在大概1498 到 1547 之间,但都属于弱势横盘,因为出现的高点一个比一个低。

可是,就在上两个交易日时跌破了这个横盘,接下来要看的是会不会再次站上 1498 或拿一个整数 1500 了,如果没有拿就继续看到大概 1436 吧。

其实,这样的走势不是只有KLCI 独家而已,就连道琼都一样,而且还有一堆手套股也一样。

这也顺道说说道琼吧。
道琼的确是非常弱,6月15号 FED 宣布进行 SMCCF (Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility),白话就是FED 进场买公司债卷,所以在那之后道琼来到最高大概26611,基本上就是突破了阻力,然而,还是抵挡不住悲观的市场,之后就接着高点一个比一个低,直到上周收在大概 25015,也就是将FED 在 6月 15 号 宣布的利好消息完全消化了,简直是一夜回到解放前。

现在最后的一道防线就是大概 24834,或则拿一个整数为25000,一旦跌破我猜测往下至少可以去到24000。



从KLCI 指数期货来看,参考7 月份 FKLI 的走势,已经跌破了过去的横盘区间,做空的就设 1491.5 为停损点,如果站不上这个支撑点,那么往下空间我想至少有 50 点吧。


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CharlesT

Seriously wrong...

2021-01-09 13:48

stockraider

WHY COVID 19 CAUSED A FREEZE OUT & LOCK DOWN OF BUSINESS IN 2020 DID NOT TRIGGER A A GREAT RECESSION OR GREAT DEPRESSION ?- THIS IT ALL BCOS BIG AVAILABILITY OF DEEP LIQUIDITY DUE TO CENTRAL BANK ACTION LOH!


Global Economic Crises
Economic crises in one country can have catastrophic consequences in other parts of the world.


The Great Depression of the 1930s

The Great Depression of the 1930s, began as a financial meltdown in the U.S. with millions of Americans losing their jobs and countless companies and farms going bankrupt.

When the Federal Reserve moved to restrict money supply after the 1929 crash, it led to an even more severe slowdown in economic activity, which increased unemployment and bankruptcies.

Faced with a severe crisis in funding, U.S. banks called in loans to foreign countries leading to a collapse in the banking system in such debtor countries as Germany and Argentina.

The U.S. government then raised tariffs and quotas on imported goods, ostensibly to protect U.S. companies and farmers. But this immediately led countries around the world to raise tariffs of their own, creating a vicious cycle where the economic downturn and isolationism in one country led to a greater downturn and even more protectionism in another - and eventually worldwide depression.

Unemployment reached unprecedented levels of more than 25% of the workforce unemployed in in Germany, Great Britain and the United States.

In Germany, the economic situation was a major cause of the rise in fascism, with Hitler's National Socialist Party seizing power as the economy failed and inflation soared.



The Worldwide Recession of the 2008

The worldwide recession of the 2008 started with the collapse of the housing market in the U.S. But the enormity of the financial collapse required a level of government and central bank intervention never before attempted.

When banks began failing across the globe - primarily because of catastrophic investments in U.S. subprime securities funded by unstable, short-term money market borrowing - it was clear that a full-blown worldwide crisis had arrived.

Stock market declines of more than 50% in some countries presaged a global economic meltdown.

The concerted actions of the world's central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserves, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan, helped calm things down for a while. But when entire countries began to go bankrupt - like Iceland and Greece - it was clear that the fallout of the 2008 crisis would last for years to come.

The task facing the Fed as well as the other central banks of the world in 2008 was to somehow solve the immediate problem without setting precedents that would exacerbate future crises.


What caused the 2008 recession?

1. Some say that the reaction of the Federal Reserve to the meltdown of the dot-com sector in 2000 - increasing liquidity and facilitating drastically lower interest rates - set the stage for the housing bubble and the eventual meltdown of financial markets several years later.

2. Others say the "savings glut" in the emerging economies in Asia as well as in Germany and other export-oriented countries led to the 2008 recession, during which easy access to mortgages led to overheated housing market from Dublin to Madrid to San Francisco.

3. Some point to the discovery by banks and mortgage companies in the U.S. that they could make a lot of money by providing loans to home buyers who normally wouldn't be given credit.
The market for subprime mortgages really took off when the banks and mortgage companies figured out that they could repackage these dubious mortgages and sell them as bonds to investors through-out the world economy - mainly to cash-flush banks and financial institutions.
With hundred of billions of dollars' worth of mortgage-backed securities traded annually by 2007, the market for subprime debt had become bigger than the entire market for U.S. Treasury bonds - the biggest bond market in the world at the time.

2021-01-09 15:35

Jack Kong

@CharlesT yeap, because i thought should have another sell down, but no more. so, that is why i said no more bear after that https://trendingline.blogspot.com/2020/12/no-more-bear.html

2021-01-17 02:07

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