TOPGLOVE || YEAR 2020 BURSA KINGMAKER
TOPGLOVE || MIGHT REACH RM84.72
TOPGLOVE
TWO(2) quarter before EPS is just 4.36 sen (official)
ONE(1) quarter before EPS is just 4.52 sen (official)
The current quarter EPS is just 13.59 sen (official)
The coming quarter EPS is just 62.25 sen (forecast)
So, total 4 quarter EPS is 4.36 + 4.52 + 13.59 + 62.25 = 84.72
My personal opinion on PE for rubber glove company especially the big rubber glove company is around PE 40 to PE 70 during this Covid-19 period.
EPS x PE= Price
84.72 x 40= RM33.88
84.72 x 50= RM42.36
84.72 x 60= RM50.84
84.72 x 70= RM59.30
Based on the observation on the PE recently, the Top 4 glove companies namely Topglove, Supermax, Hartalega and Kossan achieve P/E 100 and more. It is safe to give a P/E 50-70. So, the price shall be at least RM42 to 59.
In the bull scenario, Topglove will reach RM84.72 with the P/E 100.
Disclaimer…This is not an advice to buy or sell. It is just for education and sharing purpose. Vinkuat do not take accountability for any trading occurring from our information disseminated.
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 21 of 21 comments
Standard acceptable PE is 20, for both trailing and forward. You were calculating using forward PE, the acceptable level is also 20. Nothing can change that. If your forward PE is 10, price will move up twice the current price.
2020-08-13 14:39
Nasdaq Amazon is different. People use forward forward forward.... PE as investors know they can elimante competitors every now and then. It is almost like monopoly.
If glove demand will increase 1000% every year for the next 100 years, and the glove company can make other competitors bankrupt, you can use forward forward ... PE.
2020-08-13 14:46
totally wrong calculation. EPS is based on the net profit of the trailing twelve months and latest number of shares issued. you should take the expected net profit of the coming quarter with the previous 3 quarters and divide by number of outstanding share.
PLEASE STOP YOUR TOTAL MISLEADING CALCULATION, AMATEUR!!
2020-08-13 19:10
then drop to 23.50 now you already all-in or not? will go to Rm75 wor
2020-08-14 14:53
already paper lost 200k on top glove, bought rm 28.00. hopefully next week can shoot up after announce bonus issue date.
2020-08-14 16:24
More goodies from TopGlove soon? as TanSri Lim have confident or simply luring investor by pumping more with buyback shares?...i'm expecting more good news from SuperMax & TopGlove AGM for Bonus or maybe "Sweet GOODIES" too??
2020-08-16 23:40
U need to understand this loh...!!
Dali is wrong mah...!!
The broker institute this no contra guideline to protect the glove traders & investors and remisier mah..if there is a crash alot of people will go bankrupt mah..!!
Better to let some air out 1st mah...!!
If the purchasers are so confident perhaps they should use their own cash to buy...why need to use remisier limit or margin and endanger much more people to the euphoria leh ?...!!
The brokers are right to institute pre emptive strike loh...!!
Posted by stockraider > Aug 17, 2020 12:33 AM | Report Abuse X
This stupid dali say gloves being a commodity they are sign of danger then why he do not allow the brokers to steer away from danger leh ??
I think people should be rational and allow the brokers to take preventive action mah...!!
This will reduce sharp systematic risk mah...!!
2020-08-17 00:38
what becomes unrealistic is when valuation becomes RM24, 64.7 billion valuation, PE95 valuation because if you know that if one day there will be a vaccine, the demand will lessen. By how much? We can then look at an elevated realistic expectation of the market demand and use that for the next 10 years post covid. You know that gloves can make double or 3x the profits in the year to come, but after that ship sails? You will be left with multiple new companies that have suddenly built glove production capacity and fighting with you for new market share and cut throat prices. A few years of profitable COVID earnings followed by multiple years of huge compettition for market share and supply. Then you will realize what the competitive advantage of Hartalega and Topglove is throughout the years ( huge cash position, patents, and lowest scale producer). But mark my words, with China face shield market as a indicator, it will be a painful set of years to follow. This part is easy to predict. When it will Happen? No idea. Will it happen? Almost definitely (supply and demand )
So looking at comparative growth? Look to the chart above again.
If you have the money to buy a Ferrari for 64.7 billion, what kind of sportscar are you looking to go for? Assuming it doesn't break down and if the value of rare one of a kind cars increase over time, a 60 billion sportscar should get you within the range of 2.8 - 8.4 billion (horsepower).
However, cars break down and new electric cars become popular. Companies like banks will become profitable one day (after huge reset of the NPL loans and borrowings to bankrupt companies and economies in the near future post moratorium) and oil prices will not stay below $40 forever, benefitting those companies that are oversold.
Again, buy low sell high.
So, knowing that one day in the future (we can't predict when the rain will come, but we can build that roof over our heads) will come, all you can do is BUY LOW SELL HIGH. In this case invest in low priced BLUE CHIP STOCKS. So what happened with the recent huge selloff of the stock market of glove stocks? A cooldown of the shares? A profit taking by people who made millions playing the glove stocks?
Who knows? Who cares? In the short term there can be thousands of reasons why all these things are happening. BUY HIGH, SELL HIGHER? SELL HIGHER BUY BACK HIGH? Its a confusing attack of information, which NO ONE can predict.
In the long term the answer is simple:
Most of them are will be SELLING HIGH, to BUY LOW. Timing this market or frontrunning everyone? Very stressful, almost impossible if you dont have a huge pool of data to work with and tons of data engineers to help you collect and sort important information, and scrub anomalies. Not impossible. But very, very hard. There is a reason why most of the traders (80%) that use IB, Thinkorswim, RobinHood etc ALL lose money in their first years.
So the simple answer to why the share prices crashed after an excellent QR? FEAR, UNCERTAINTY, PROFIT TAKING, CONTRA, VACCINE. WHO KNOWS? Why should you care unless you BOUGHT HIGH something you didn't understand.
2020-08-17 00:47
How many non medical people using gloves leh ??
Just a handful mah....!!
U just look at facemask mah...!!
It is atonishing that almost everybody in this world are using facemask, yet the facemask price keep dropping & dropping loh..!!
Why leh ??
Over capacity & intense competition for facemask thus price collapse mah...!!
Samething what happen to facemask would happen to gloves loh...!!
Bcos both facemask & gloves are commodities....thus subject to price collapse mah....!
Next Gloves selling price is likely to collapse due to glut loh...!!
Posted by geary > Aug 31, 2020 5:20 PM | Report Abuse
calvintaneng Good afternoon
Someday Glove usage might become a norm like using tooth brush, toilet tissue or soap to wash hands
I visited Singpost office to post a letter
Every staff is using 2 medical gloves for protection in the post office.
So medical gloves are not just confined to hospitals anymore
It will become a way of life now
So careplus has a great future
31/08/2020 4:43 PM
Oh...New Normal... Everywhere...◉‿◉
2020-08-31 17:39
Why worry about x bonus price leh ??
Its effect is always neutral mah...!!
But be very wary of Average Selling Price of Gloves mah...it is coming down bcos of excess capacity, competition and Vaccine coming loh!
Posted by stockwinner > Sep 1, 2020 7:29 PM | Report Abuse
If share price drop -25% immediately after bonus issue, like what happened earlier after the latest QR announcemnet (profit growth, but share price drop from RM24.30 to RM16.xx in few days), in that case, shall we hold or sell ar?
Posted by klcianalyzer > Sep 1, 2020 7:51 PM | Report Abuse
Depends where the price is.. price will always go unexpectedly. The moment u sell that’s the time the price wanna shoot up hahahah
2020-09-01 19:55
TESLA after split share price went up more....bonus share is good for the share price right ？
2020-09-01 19:59
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