Felda Global IPO (Stock code: FGV, 5222) will be listed today, so much has been written about it, so let's get straight to the point... how high can it go?

Let's look at 3 possible scenarios:
1. If market follow analyst Target Price, it range from RM5.44 to RM5.65. However, this price range looks like a bit too stretched at 15x - 16x Forward PE as Sime Darby (closest comparison) only trades at max 14x Forward PE.
2. Will it follow Facebook fate in 1st day IPO? Some news start to compare FGV (2nd largest IPO this year) with Facebook (largest IPO globally this year). But the reality is Facebook gained only 0.6% to US$38.23 on its 1st day of listing (IPO Price: US$38). If FGV really follow Facebook fate, it should up by only 0.6% to RM4.58.
3. The stock code is 5222, means it will jump to RM5.22? This looks more like feng shui talk, but 5.22 sounds more reasonable price, making its Forward PE closer to Sime Darby Forward PE.

Conclusion:
Scenario 1 and 3 looks more likely, means base case RM5.22, more optimistic case RM5.44 to RM5.65. Wish to make an early congratulations to those who got some of the shares before IPO. If you want to get in after listed, quite hard to get at reasonable price...