THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

Kuala Lumpur-Singapore named busiest international air route, Comments by Calvin Tan Research

calvintaneng
Publish date: Tue, 29 May 2018, 01:20 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,832
Hi Guys,

I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
Singapore Airlines and Malaysia AirlinesImage copyrightGETTY IMAGES

The air route linking Singapore and the Malaysian capital Kuala Lumpur has become the busiest in the world, research shows.

Planes made 30,537 trips between the two airports in the year to February 2018, OAG Aviation said.

The route overtook Hong Kong-Taipei in a list dominated by Asian destinations.

Flying between Singapore and Kuala Lumpur takes about an hour, and there are plans to build a high-speed rail link between the two.

The figures mean an average of 84 flights per day plied the route.

The route is operated by a host of budget carriers such as Scoot, Jetstar, Air Asia and Malindo Air as well as the two countries' flagship carriers, Singapore Airlines and Malaysia Airlines.

 

DatapicImage copyrightBBC/GETTY

OAG's report found that the busiest international route outside of Asia was between New York's LaGuardia airport and Toronto Pearson - a route which saw about 16,956 flights over the period.

In terms of passenger numbers the flight between Hong Kong and the Taiwanese capital remains the busiest with 6.5 million passengers on the route. The second busiest was Singapore-Jakarta (4.7 million people) and Singapore-Kuala Lumpur (4 million).

However, even the busiest international routes cannot compete with the most popular domestic air journeys.

The world's busiest flight path is between the South Korean capital, Seoul, and the country's popular holiday island of Jeju. About 65,000 planes flew that route in 2017 according to OAG - the equivalent of almost 180 journeys per day.

Chart

 

Calvin comments,

 

As we can see from the above figures the KL - Singapore Air Route is the busiest in the world.

 

30,537 Flights a year divides by 365 days = 83 Flights Per Day

 

Suppose HSR operates full time 24 hours a day it would equal to 3.5 trips per 60 minutes hour.

or 17.14 minutes interval per Hsr train

With Such High Turnover of 4 Million Paying Passengers (Just Rm150 per ticket) it will add up to Rm600 Millions Revenue a Year.

 

The figures could scale up by these factors

 

1) If 2 million passengers paid in S$150 it could translate to Rm450 ticket per trip in ringgit value which will double Revenue to Rm1.2 Billions.

 

And if Ticket price is raised to Rm200 or another Rm50 per trip it would be

 

Rm100 Millions on Malaysia Side

And Rm300 Millions on Singapore Side

 

Which means Revenue will increase to Rm1.6 Billions Per Year.

 

PLUS

There will be income from sale of F&B on the HSR

The Building of Commercial, retail, office & residential properties on the 7 HSR Stations for enhanced Sale of very high value.

It is said from Japan experience that properties and lands surrounding HSR stations automatically increase by 46%. So this will add value for KL-Spore HSR to recoup its capital expense later.

 

If HSR is not viable why Japan after 50 years still want to build more. And even more expensive ones with faster speed. 

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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 47 of 47 comments

curious2

Dr M think he may not live beyond 2026 when HSR complete? Moreover S'pore-Msia not so much compare to M'sia-China so ECRL more important not HSR?

2018-05-29 13:33

kong73

ECRL better

2018-05-29 13:33

hollandking

think China would be willing to nego, they don't mind losing money as long as project can go on.

2018-05-29 13:35

ABCnewbie

Ks55, why you delete your post? Should not be afraid to continue our debate...

Ks55 Because Mahathir is shortsighted as usually! He thinks setting up another Proton is more viable!
29/05/2018 13:25

2018-05-29 13:35

hollandking

after all, china flush with cash, no problem

2018-05-29 13:36

hollandking

i think our govt can renego and get very good terms from china. China has got a strategic plan, the what belt blah blah blah, they don't look at one part, they look at the whole project. Beside, I heard china not on good term with singapore

2018-05-29 13:37

hollandking

I think they cancelled off HSR for strategic reason too.
Think china will view this as positive.
As for ECRL, as mentioned , renego should be able to get a good deal from china.
If you looked at the states which harapan got defeated, pahang, terengganu, kelantan, these are rural states. If Harapan can bring modernization to these states, it can open up a new group of voters for harapan. So i dont think they are going to cancel ECRL but renego with china which I'm sure china will be more than willing to do so. Money not an issue with china

2018-05-29 13:42

hollandking

Urban areas always in favour of harapan

2018-05-29 13:43

calvintaneng

Harapan is now having teething problem of a new born party in power

Everything it implements will be a new precedent

To please opposition states to win their future votes to the neglect of those in Seremban, Melaka & Johor who gave them the mandate is too naive

IF THESE STATES FELT NEGLECTED THEY TOO MIGHT LOSE FUTURE VOTES

SO ALL MUST DECIDE OBJECTIVELY AND NOT SUCCUMB TO SUBJECTIVE BIAS

2018-05-29 13:54

Jon Choivo

Calvin, cost is say 60 billion. 3% interest.

That is 1.8 bil per year, just to pay interest. The gov basically need to subsidise. The question now is, is it worth it as a public infra?

2018-05-29 13:56

hollandking

not really, as long as they can reduced the cost of living, these urban states should view them as positively.It isn't just about cost of living, another thing is good governance. Actually i prefer if johor can have lrt, especially southern jhr, the traffic jam getting worse

2018-05-29 13:58

hollandking

i dont want bullet train, i want lrt

2018-05-29 13:58

calvintaneng

Posted by Jon Choivo > May 29, 2018 01:56 PM | Report Abuse

Calvin, cost is say 60 billion. 3% interest.

That is 1.8 bil per year, just to pay interest. The gov basically need to subsidise. The question now is, is it worth it as a public infra?


Consider these

1) Sale of F&B
2) Sale of Lands Near HSR STATION
3) Other economic spinoff

2018-05-29 14:02

calvintaneng

Posted by hollandking > May 29, 2018 01:58 PM | Report Abuse

not really, as long as they can reduced the cost of living, these urban states should view them as positively.It isn't just about cost of living, another thing is good governance. Actually i prefer if johor can have lrt, especially southern jhr, the traffic jam getting worse


YOU FROM JOHOR?

2018-05-29 14:04

hollandking

yes

2018-05-29 14:06

calvintaneng

Posted by hollandking > May 29, 2018 02:06 PM | Report Abuse

yes

VERY GOOD

And may i ask

Why did you chose the ID hollandking which is my nickname in i3? Hehe

2018-05-29 14:08

Primeinvestor

Obviously calvin have not taken into account one thing

Those land where those stations were planned for HSR were disposed earlier to UMNO cronies at cheap price and they are hoping to make a quick gain. Land sale has already taken effect long ago, the ultimate debt and interest payer will be the rakyat

Japan's bullet train is more expensive than flight! And guess what, our double track train stops at Gemas/ Tasik Selatan/ etc, are all these places developed like what they had planned?

I agree with tun M to cancle the HSR, the land acquisition cost have not even been taken into RM60b, total could be more than RM100b, which is crazy, and not to say, some parties (UMNO cronies) will be the sole beneficiary of this HSR

2018-05-29 14:09

hollandking

don't know, it just appeared in my mind, that day when i created it.
I'm a johorean, i know the traffic history of the southern johor, i won't go so far , but i want to share what i observe 10 yrs ago, i think about 10 yrs ago , traffic jam was very bad, then they widen the roads and added flyovers, closed the traffic lights. Well, it does indeed lessen the traffic BUT what i'm now noticing is the traffic is rising again. So my guess is next 10 yrs, the jam going to be very bad.

2018-05-29 14:15

calvintaneng

Posted by Primeinvestor > May 29, 2018 02:09 PM | Report Abuse

Obviously calvin have not taken into account one thing

Those land where those stations were planned for HSR were disposed earlier to UMNO cronies at cheap price and they are hoping to make a quick gain. Land sale has already taken effect long ago, the ultimate debt and interest payer will be the rakyat

Japan's bullet train is more expensive than flight! And guess what, our double track train stops at Gemas/ Tasik Selatan/ etc, are all these places developed like what they had planned?

I agree with tun M to cancle the HSR, the land acquisition cost have not even been taken into RM60b, total could be more than RM100b, which is crazy, and not to say, some parties (UMNO cronies) will be the sole beneficiary of this HSR

These are some figures:

Iskandar Gerbang HSR Station surrounding lands are owned by UEMS & MULPHA, Nearby got Fast Tract sports own by Tycoon Peter Lim. So these are listed Companies & private investor

In Batu Pahat Star Newspaper Senior Reporter told me BCB owns lands nearby. Again listed company

The one in Labu is under Sime Darby

2018-05-29 14:15

calvintaneng

Whoa?

A crony? No lah

I left crony Malaysia for Singapore,s meritocracy

2018-05-29 14:24

Primeinvestor

Haha, so u think UEMS, mulpha, peter lim don pay umno cronies at all? You want HSR because you invested lots of $ in JB, right, too bad for you

the fact is that our GDP cant support such a high cost project unlike Japan, double track and single track from KL to JB did not even add much value to Malaysia, and is running at losses

2018-05-29 14:24

Flintstones

Vote Calvin tan eng for president next GE!!!

2018-05-29 14:27

loonginv

i do agree to cancel hsr although i holding ytl share (jialat....)
goment shd focus on how to get improve on causeway/2nd link or even implement MRT btw JB-SG. think this will benefit more to ppl in jb n sg as well. beside that, jb shd hv LRT. with this slowly can link up jb-skudai-kulai-xxxxxxxxx

2018-05-29 14:28

hollandking

yeah, i agreed with looginv

2018-05-29 14:30

Sslee

Dear all,
I quote from my previous blog post:
“Everybody deserves a second chance, because life is too complicated to get it right the first time”- SkyLug.
Please give Tun M and ourselves a second chance to get it right this time. I thank you.
I prepare to give UMNO or BN a second chance too provided they can admit their past mistake and mismanagement and prepare to reform and turn over a new leaf.
Unfortunately many of UMNO and BN politicians are still in their denial mentality still trying to claim RM 100+ millions cash found in MO1 and his children’s processing as belonging to UMNO and still insist nothing is wrong with 1MDB, defending the exorbitant price mega projects that cannot generate enough cash flow to services it loan interest or still believe in Arab donation.

As of Tun M he knew that his second coming is a much tougher as many years of abuse of power, blatant disregard for rule of law, rampant corruption, lack of check and balance, indoctrinated of intolerance religion teaching, BN hatred divide and conquer propaganda and intoxication, financial falsehood and misrepresentation, uncontrolled spending, unsustainable and wasteful Mega projects that will not benefit Malaysian (White elephant project), lack of accountability and etc (Some were leave over from his own legacy) had caused severe damage to Malaysia institute, economic, international reputation and etc. Tun M is a man on missions to clean up the corruption culture, the dependency on clutch, the national debt, the leakage, the unsustainable economic model/mega projects and to rebuild the institutional reform, the separation of power, international confident and truth, safeguarding Malaysia sovereign right and exercise Malaysia right in international affair without beholder to any nation.
Yes Tun M new cabinet members lack the fineness and experience in dealing with the protocol and proper running of a government ministry, they still have a lot to learn and I can only hope that they learnt fast otherwise we will vote them out comes GE15.

As of relationship with China and Singapore, I quote from below article.
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/opinion/2018/05/29/china-and-singapore-should-do-the-right-thing/
Moral responsibility
In the end, we might have little choice but to abide by the terms of the contracts. However, an argument can also be made that both China and Singapore took advantage of a corrupt regime to sign projects that did not meet international standards of good governance and transparency. China, in particular, must have known that the ECRL project was suspect right from the beginning; yet, it went ahead with it. Indeed, China exploited our weaknesses to impose “unequal treaties” (as Mahathir called them) upon us.
I submit, therefore, that they have a moral responsibility to do the right thing now and cancel if not renegotiate these agreements with minimum penalty.

Hard lessons in independence
Whatever it is, we will now discover who our friends really are.
Both China and Singapore can insist on their pound of flesh and use their economic muscle to bully us into maintaining these “unequal treaties” or they can do the right thing and work with our government to find mutually acceptable solutions. They can have their pound of flesh or they can prove themselves the good neighbours they claim to be, but they can’t have both.
For Malaysia, it is a lesson, a very expensive lesson, that when we have weak and corrupt leaders, we are vulnerable to exploitation and manipulation. We must never allow ourselves to be put in this position ever again.

Thank you
PS: Wishing all a Happy Vesak Day. May your life be full with blessings, peace and happiness on this day of enlightenment.

2018-05-29 14:35

Primeinvestor

http://www.chinapress.com.my/?p=1260574?

the cost of construction of HSR definitely has imputed at least RM20-30b of dedak or commission just like the ECRL, if go ahead, Najib & Co will be filthy rich

2018-05-29 14:36

calvintaneng

hollandking don't know, it just appeared in my mind, that day when i created it.
I'm a johorean, i know the traffic history of the southern johor, i won't go so far , but i want to share what i observe 10 yrs ago, i think about 10 yrs ago , traffic jam was very bad, then they widen the roads and added flyovers, closed the traffic lights. Well, it does indeed lessen the traffic BUT what i'm now noticing is the traffic is rising again. So my guess is next 10 yrs, the jam going to be very bad.
29/05/2018 14:15


Yes I saw it all

The Boom in Spore traffic from 1980 to 1990 until they build ECP, PIE & TPE Highways

The Boom in KL traffic from 1990 onwards


And Plus

In early 80s I drove from KL to Seremban 4 lanes highway
From Seremban no PLUS highway then

PLUS later reached Ayer Keroh. Then I used to drive from Ayer Keroh Highway exited to Melaka, Muar, Batu Pahat then south.

One day it reached Pagoh (still got to travel pass Parit Sulong)

Finally PLUS Highway reached Skudai Toll

No 2nd Link Bridge Yet

BUT FINALLY IN JANUARY 1998 SPORE SECOND LINK OPENED & I DROVE FROM KL TO TUAS IN 4 to 5 HOURS

I TRIED IT OWN ON VOLVO 940 at 160 km Per hour & reached by just 4 hours

ONE DAY I DROVE A BMW 525i AT TOP SPEED OF 220 Km Per Hour & reached Singapore just below 3 hours

SO THE BOOM AND TRAFFIC JAMS IN JOHOR IS A CERTAINTY

THEY ALREADY PLANNED THE SKUDAI ELEVATED HIGHWAY

THE PASIR GUDANG ELEVATED HIGHWAYS

AND THE ISKANDAR BUS RAPIT TRANSPORT

IT IS ALSO A MATTER OF TIME ISKANDAR WILL HAVE ITS OWN MRT AND LRT

2018-05-29 14:39

loonginv

i stay jb, public tranport is really suck. you cant survive if you own a car. suggest to hv 2 LRT line, namely along jalan skudai & jalan tebrau. it could hv to build bus interchange along the line which bring ppl from surrounding housing area.
sweet dream..................

2018-05-29 14:45

teoct

Yes instead of HSR, MRT / LRT / Trams / Buses for all Malaysia!! Everyone benefit!!

2018-05-29 14:48

calvintaneng

loonginv i stay jb, public tranport is really suck. you cant survive if you own a car. suggest to hv 2 LRT line, namely along jalan skudai & jalan tebrau. it could hv to build bus interchange along the line which bring ppl from surrounding housing area.
sweet dream..................
29/05/2018 14:45

Try Causeway Link Buses owned by Yinson. They now have 700 Buses going everywhere even to Singapore Jurong East.

MRT IN SKUDAI & TEBRAU IS ALSO A CVERTAINTY

Last time in 1980s I got caught in Cheras Infamous crawl for 7 hours jam one morning

Now they got Mrt/Lrt in Cheras?

2018-05-29 14:50

relaks

Haha, i tot LSL came offer us balik itu 1mdb punya wang hidden in Spore banks. Spore Banks = Swiss Banks of the East. What’s so clean about Spore?

2018-05-29 14:53

Sslee

Dear Calvintaneng,
I refer,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railway_electrification_in_Malaysia
As of November 2015, the stretch between Padang Besar and Gemas has been completed, with two electrified train services operating on the stretch: the KTM Komuter and the ETS.

What is missing is from Gemas to Johor Baru and then JB to Singapore.
For last mile connectivity to Singapore, I propose a people moving MRT underground tunnel to Singapore where Singapore side can build a big underground facility to handle immigration requirement.
Thank you.

2018-05-29 14:54

relaks

If Msia can get back the looted 1mdb $, can use to teruskan this project.

2018-05-29 14:56

calvintaneng

SSLee

Spore - JB MRT already on
See
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johor_Bahru%E2%80%93Singapore_Rapid_Transit_System

From Bkt Chagar there will be a Bus Rapid Transport fanning into all areas of Iskandar

As for Train they already prepared one Big Depot in Kempas

2018-05-29 15:08

Sslee

Dear Calvintaneng,
Thank you for pointing up the upcoming JB- Singapore MRT.
This project should be give priority and speed up.
We definately cannot afford a RM 100 billion HSR.
Thank you

2018-05-29 15:17

calvintaneng

On more thought

If Air Transport Shows KL - Singapore the Hottest On Planet Earth today what about Long Distance Coaches.

Last week I made a short trip to KL

Took the AEROLINE 3.30pm Bus from CORUS Hotel KL to Singapore

The fare was Rm95 one way.

Journey Very Smooth with 20 minutes rest stopn in Pagoh Rest Area. Arrived Singapore by 9.30pm

IT WAS A 6 HOUR LONG JOUNEY

I don't mind to pay Rm150 or even Rm250 if it takes only One Hour by HSR if i in a hurry?

SO MANY WHO ARE RUSHING FOR TIME WILL GET KILLED ON PLUS HIGHWAYS

See
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9M2VSixKoLo

See other Highway accidents

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFFtCO3wXIA

For 54 Years Shinkansen HSR register zero fatality

2018-05-29 15:24

Sslee

Dear Calvintaneng,
My brother and his family now take ETS train back to Alor Setar for CNY. The ETS train travel about 140 km /hr and it took less than 5 hour to reach Alor Star.
If the Gemas to JB line completed the from KL sentra to JB will take less than 4 hour normal or even less if express KL- JB
Thank you.

2018-05-29 15:45

VWWong

calvin, HSR will only benefits Singaporeans at the expense of poor Malaysians paying for it

2018-05-31 09:26

VWWong

malaysians will subsidise it. japanese government debt is the highest in the world because they blindly build train lines and airports

2018-05-31 09:27

VWWong

calvin, open your eyes and be objective about it.

2018-05-31 09:28

calvintaneng

VWWong

Calvin, open your eyes?

Hmmm?

Let me tell you a true eye opening experience.

FOR A VERY LONG TIME TUN DR M HAS A SPAT WITH PAUL KEATING OF AUSTRALIA.

THEY CALLED TUN DR M "RECALCITRANT"

I CAN'T RECALL THE REASON WHY?

BUT OUR NEWSPAPERS REPORTED VERY BAD STUFF ON AUSTRALIA FOR YEARS...FOR DECADES

SO MY MIND WAS FILLED WITH VERY NEGATIVE THOUGHT AND IN MY MIND AUSTRALIA MUST BE A VERY VERY BAD PLACE. SO BETTER AVOID.

ONE DAY MY SINGAPOREAN WIFE TOLD ME TO VISIT PERTH IN WA FOR A HOLIDAY.

I WENT FOLLOWING HER WISH AND ALSO TO SATISFY MY CURIOSITY.

IS AUSTRALIA REALLY THAT BAD AS REPORTED IN MALAYSIAN PRESS.

OUR PLANE LANDED ON PERTH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

AND THEN MY EYES WERE OPENED.

PERTH IS LIKE A PARADISE!

I STROLLED PERTH SEASIDE IN HILARY HARBOUR

THE WATER IS SO CLEAR THAT I CAN SEE FISHES SWIMMING BY.

WHAT I HAD BY HEARSAY IS TOTALLY DIFFERENT FROM WHAT I "SEE" WITH MY OWN EYES.

SINCE THEN I HAVE VISITED PERTH MANY TIMES AND STILL LOVING IT.

HAVE YOU SAT IN HIGH SPEED TRAIN??

I DID IT 20 YEARS AGO IN OSAKA...KYOTO...TOKYO

MALAYSIANS ARE MISSING THAT FOR 54 YEARS ALREADY. STILL SO BLIND?

2018-05-31 09:55

VWWong

Calvin, I have been to USA, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Holland, France, England, Switzerland, Japan, Thailand, Australia, New Zealand and etc. And your answer still is not objective. Where you have been got nothing to do with the economic viability of HSR. I don't follow Mahathir blindly. I don't follow anybody blindly. ANd I don't believe in God and Ghost or any other religion. So you better try hard to be more scientific and objective in your rationale.

2018-05-31 18:23

KLCI King

Utterly zero value comments from Calvin, kaki kong kaki song

2018-05-31 18:31

pakatan_harapan2

BN is now history after losing GE14. So is HSR after PH cancel it.

2018-05-31 18:33

VWWong

Calvin, you cannot avoid the fact that the Japanese government has the highest Debt to GDP ratio on earth because they blindly build HSR and airport causing anemic economic growth or basically stagnant for 30 years. What is so good about the Japanese way of doing things? Are you blind of the fact, that their companies are in no competition with the AMerican companies like Google, Amazon, Facebook, and etc.

2018-05-31 18:39

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