THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

TOP REASONS WHY WE INVEST IN PLANTATION STOCKS LIKE FGV(5222) BECAUSE OF LAND BANKING, Calvin Tan Research

calvintaneng
Publish date: Thu, 17 Dec 2020, 09:58 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,801
Hi Guys,

I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.

Hi guys,

Today I saw an advertisement in Malaysia Property Guru Website

Here it is

For Sale - Agricultural land for sale

RM 40,288,000
473932 sqft
RM85.01 psf
 
Agricultural land for sale
Plentong, Plentong, Johor Bahru, Johor
 
SEE https://www.propertyguru.com.my/commercial-property/agricultural-land-for-sale-for-sale-by-pauline-lim-31948135
 
STRAIGHTAWAY FGV (FELDA GLOBAL VENTURES COME TO MIND)
 
FELDA ALSO GOT AGRICULTURAL LANDS IN PLENTONG
 
SEE
 
Let us take a look at one at Top number 4 properties listed
4. Johor Darul Takzim
Inas Selatan, Kledang 02, Maokil 06, Maokil 07,
Nitar Timur, Paloh, Tenggaroh 09, Tenggaroh
11, Tenggaroh 12, Tenggaroh 13, Tenggaroh
Timur 02, Palong Timur 04, Palong Timur 05,
Semencu, Pasir Gudang, Semencu, Bukit
Besar, Air Tawar, Penggeli, Kahang, Lok
Heng, Selanchar 2A, Tenggaroh 4, Adela,
Moakil, Nitar, Selanchar 2B, Belitong, Wa Ha,
 
Tenggaroh Timur, Kulai, Plentong, Tanjung
 
Langsat Industrial Complex
 

Now let us calculate the actual value of these lands

 

Land size 33,914 hectares
 
Net Book Value: Rm265,873,000
 
To get per sq feet value first convert hectare to acre
 
1 hectare equals to 2.471 acre
 
So 33,914 acres x 2.471 = 83,801 acres
 
So multiply  83,801 acres by 43,560 to sq feet = 3,650,371,560 sq ft
 
Wow over 3.6 BILLION S FT LANDS IN JOHOR ALONE!
 
Now to get price per sq feet
 
Divides Rm265,873,000 by 3,650,371,560 = 0.072 sen
 
PHEW!!! ONLY 7.2 SEN COST PRICE PER SQ FEET?
 
NOW FGV BOOK VALUE FOR PLENTONG LAND IS ONLY 7.2 SEN
 
AS ADVERTISED BY PROPERYGURU UNDER COMMERCIAL PROPERTY FOR SALE IN JOHOR RIGHT NOW LANDS ARE RM85.01 PER SQ FT
 
NOW YOU KNOW WHY FELDA WANT TO TAKE BACK ALL THE GROSSLY UNDERVALUE LANDS FROM FGV?
 
IB BANKS THAT AGREE TO RM1.30 PRIVATISATION GOT ARM CHAIR ANAYLSTS WHO KNOW NEXT TO NOTHING ABOUT THE TRUE VALUE OF FGV
 
 
BEST REGARDS
 
Calvin Tan Research
Singapore
 
 
Disclaimer

All information provided here should be treated for informational purposes only. It is solely reflecting author's personal views and the author should not be held liable for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein.

BY THE WAY
 
SC SHOULD MAKE IT COMPOULSORY FOR ALL COMPANIES ESPECIALLY PLANTATION COMPANIES TO REVALUE THEIR LANDS FIRST BEFORE PRIVATISATION OR ELSE MINORITY SHARE HOLDERS WILL BE SHORT
CHANGED!
 
OKOK
 
I MUST ADMIT HONG LEONG IB GAVE A TARGET PRICE FOR FGV AT RM1.39
 
See

GV (5222) UPGRADED TO RM1.39. FIRST SALVO FIRED BY HONG LEONG INVESTMENT BANK AS CPO POWERING UP, Calvin Tan Research

 

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2020-11-18-story-h1536491619-FGV_5222_UPGRADED_TO_RM1_39_FIRST_SALVO_FIRED_BY_HONG_LEONG_INVESTMENT_.jsp

 

WHY HONG LEONG IB BANK?

ANSWER:

BECAUSE HONG LEONG GOT 2 UNIT TRUST FUNDS INVESTED IN FGV (SEE IN TOP 30 HOLDERS OF FGV)

 

 

Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 11 of 11 comments

calvintaneng

FGV (5222) UPGRADED TO RM1.39. FIRST SALVO FIRED BY HONG LEONG INVESTMENT BANK AS CPO POWERING UP, Calvin Tan Research

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2020-11-18-story-h1536491619-FGV_5222_UPGRADED_TO_RM1_39_FIRST_SALVO_FIRED_BY_HONG_LEONG_INVESTMENT_.jsp

2020-12-17 22:21

calvintaneng

Fantastic closing price for Us soybean March 2021 future in Usa at new high of Usd12

Let's see Cpo will march past Rm4000

2020-12-18 07:48

calvintaneng

For Jtiasa, Wtk and Thplant now Lumber has reached a high of Usd840

Wtk just doubled its logs production

2020-12-18 08:23

Up_again

Problem with land banking is high utilization of debts till yearly profits is mostly used to pay yearly finance cost

2020-12-18 18:47

calvintaneng

Not really

Land banking has been successfully used by Bplant

Bplant sold off valuable lands in West Malaysia
paid very good dividends and also bought cheaper lands in East Malaysia to continue it's palm oil business

Another good example if Naim
Naim sold lands to unlock cash needed for development plus extra 18 sen Cash dividend

So Fgv can anytime sell of lands (those lands not under land lease from Felda) and unlock lots of cash to pare down debts and pay dividend as well

2020-12-18 21:48

TheContrarian

Calvin, FGV is going to be privatised.

2020-12-18 23:32

calvintaneng

TheContrarian Calvin, FGV is going to be privatised.
18/12/2020 11:32 PM

Yes, I think 90% confirmed at Rm1.30 on these conditions

1) No opposition from Board of Directors of FGV

2) No counter offer from Syed Moktar

3) SC keeping quiet about Asset Revaluation

4) All all go thru then 10% hope is this

Minority shareholders can hope for a final higher privatization price of Rm1.40 or Rm1.50 eventually

In any case buying now is a no brainer as at such discounted price like Rm1.17 there is a built in certainty of not losing.

On gaining by how much?

A) 13 sen Profit if privatised at Rm1.30 from Rm1.17 which is a 10% profit

In the depth of Subprime Crisis Warren Buffet locked in Goldman Sachs offer of guaranteed 10% payout when he bought into Goldman. FGV at Rm1.17 has a guaranteed 10% yield

B) Final offer could be higher.
Examples are Kbunai, TheStore & Tmakmur - All got final privatised prices revised higher

C) Or it might remain listed like Tasek MO at Rm3.80 later went as high as Rm16.00

So can we say buying FGV at Rm1.17 can only win and cannot lose

Is this what Warren Buffet Rule saying

Rule No. 1

Never to lose money

Rule No. 2

Rule No. 2 is to remember rule number 1, that is, never to lose money

SO ONLY FGV GOT SUCH A GOOD SAFETY RIGHT NOW

2020-12-19 00:36

lcw6100

10% investment margin s
hould be good.don't wait

2020-12-19 09:35

calvintaneng

yes
10% was the base Warren Buffet bench marked

2020-12-20 00:17

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