THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
WARNING SIGNS ON TECH STOCKS: BETTER SELL TECH STOCKS BEFORE YOU LOSE YOUR SHIRT: CHINA TECH SLUMP; KOREA TECH DROPPED & US STARTS TAPERING BOND BUYS
calvintaneng
Publish date: Fri, 13 Aug 2021, 03:34 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,794
Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
Dear Friends caught in Tech Frenzy
The Warnings are all there
CHINA TECH SLUMP
See
Chinese tech stocks slump after Beijing summons 34 companies in sign of heightened regulatory oversight
- Hang Seng Tech Index slumps by as much as 1.7 per cent in afternoon trading on news of summons
- Meituan and JD.com tumble by more than 4 per cent, while Tencent and Alibaba surrender most of their strong gains
China tech crackdown: Beijing’s soft touch on tax for Big Tech is set to end as it seeks more focus on science
- Beijing’s move to levy higher tax on internet companies would be the latest in a series of steps taken to rein in Big Tech in the country
- Regulators want to tighten qualification standard for so-called ‘key software enterprises’, making it harder for internet firms to enjoy tax reductions
SOFTBANK CAUTIOUS ON CHINA TECH
SoftBank unit behind risky multibillion-dollar tech bets dumps Microsoft, Facebook, Alphabet and Netflix shares
Hong Kong stocks clobbered with tech index in record plunge on China regulatory fears, US investment concerns
- Tencent and Meituan led losses among tech stocks in Hong Kong as traders opted to avoid the unknown in China’s ongoing regulatory clampdown
- Offshore investors dumped mainland stocks by the most in a year on Monday amid market meltdow
KOREA SAMSUNG DROPPING
Samsung sees 'challenges' ahead after profit drops 56% in second quarter
S.Korea's Krafton, maker of hit game 'PUBG', tumbles on debut
SEOUL/HONG KONG (Reuters) -Shares in KraftonSEOUL/HONG KONG (Reuters) -Shares in Krafton Inc, the Tencent Holdings-backed South Korean company behind blockbuster video game “PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds” (PUBG), fell as much as 20% on their trading debut on Tuesday.
USA TAPERING BOND PURCHASE
Fed to unveil bond-buying taper plan next month; jobless rate to fall slowly
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Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 50 of 87 comments
CynicalCyan
You are correct on local tech stocks
US's Apple looks ok
If Fed continues money printing Bitcoin and Ethereum will also go up
If not still local tech stocks now too high in valuation
Cepat earns 3.07 sen just like Greatec earning same 3.07 sen but Cepat is less than 10% of Greatec
That is why we should go for undervalue palm oil shares as a whole
Over a short term the stock market is a voting machine but over a longer term the stock market turns into a weighing machine
2021-08-14 11:25
Of course local tech will benefit mah!
What is good for Apple will be good for local tech mah, bcos alot of them get business servicing the very big boys mah!
Posted by calvintaneng > Aug 14, 2021 11:25 AM | Report Abuse
CynicalCyan
You are correct on local tech stocks
US's Apple looks ok
If Fed continues money printing Bitcoin and Ethereum will also go up
If not still local tech stocks now too high in valuation
Cepat earns 3.07 sen just like Greatec earning same 3.07 sen but Cepat is less than 10% of Greatec
That is why we should go for undervalue palm oil shares as a whole
Over a short term the stock market is a voting machine but over a longer term the stock market turns into a weighing machine
2021-08-14 11:34
Hahaha Sifu Stockraider must have invested in local tech stocks alot
Ok
Hope you do well
2021-08-14 11:45
Let it be rational loh!
I have some position in SAM, but this is small compare to my Palm oil stock company like FGV, Taan, tsh, jayatiasa loh!
But we must report & anlyse correctly mah!
Posted by calvintaneng > Aug 14, 2021 11:45 AM | Report Abuse
Hahaha Sifu Stockraider must have invested in local tech stocks alot
Ok
Hope you do well
2021-08-14 11:54
Talking so much about earnings peak in glove sector in last 6 months. Earnings peak of Nesdaq companies in next 6 months.
2021-08-14 12:11
Gloves no barrier of entry mah!
Cincai people like mahsing with no previous glove experience can set up gloves production & become one of top gloves producer in msia within 6 mths loh! Thus u can expect a glut in future gloves mkt loh!
In technology...u cannot do that...there are huge barrier of entry..in terms of technology knowhow mah!
Lu tau boh ?
Posted by treasurehunt > Aug 14, 2021 12:11 PM | Report Abuse
Talking so much about earnings peak in glove sector in last 6 months. Earnings peak of Nesdaq companies in next 6 months.
2021-08-14 12:15
Sam engineering is ok. It's forward P/E is 19.5
Others like Widetech, greactec, Mi and Frontken are way too high to chase
As for gloves the peak of earnings will be impacted by gross overproduction just like face masks
2021-08-14 12:19
Kau pandai dan tahu semua seluruh dunia berapa billion kali. Cukup tak?
2021-08-14 12:19
High bearer of entry in Technology sector but the sector is encountering serious shortage wafer supply. It takes more than 2 years to build extra capacity. How on earth technology companies able to increase robust turnover and earnings in year 2022?
https://techcet.com/wafer-supply-constrained-through-2024-likely/
2021-08-14 12:39
Thats why big prospect bcos of big demand & wafer shortage....very big existing back log orders to fulfil mah!
Posted by treasurehunt > Aug 14, 2021 12:39 PM | Report Abuse
High bearer of entry in Technology sector but the sector is encountering serious shortage wafer supply. It takes more than 2 years to build extra capacity. How on earth technology companies able to increase robust turnover and earnings in year 2022?
2021-08-14 12:41
No extra capacity, that would mean consumers electronic companies like Apple's turnover and earnings peaking in 6 months.
2021-08-14 12:45
Technology chips selling price won't increase like what had happened in glove sector.
2021-08-14 12:48
Itu kereta punya chips lah...mana apple punya chips leh ?
Posted by treasurehunt > Aug 14, 2021 12:45 PM | Report Abuse
No extra capacity, that would mean consumers electronic companies like Apple's turnover and earnings peaking in 6 months.
2021-08-14 12:48
Consumer electronics producers and atomative makers are fighting for chips.
2021-08-14 12:52
Actually people should worry about food more than computer chips shortfall
No chips won't die but no food will cause famine
Now already Aug 21 yet palm oil stocks only 1.5 million tonnes
Later if not enough palm oil, wheat flour, corn or soybean how ??
There will be panic buying
2021-08-14 12:53
" Now, the impact of the supply crunch is spreading to consumer tech. Apple CEO Tim Cook warned last week that a limited supply of semiconductors would hurt sales of iPhones. Microsoft is struggling to make enough Xbox consoles and Surface laptops. Elon Musk told a court last month that the chip shortage meant Tesla would only be able to manufacture about half as many Powerwall home batteries as it thinks it can sell. "
https://www.google.com.vn/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/recode/2021/8/5/22611031/chip-shortage-cars-electronics-automakers-gm-tesla-playstation-xbox
2021-08-14 12:57
Actually food is low tech & can get many substitute loh!
Bcos...we are technology so advance in food production...we can easily cover the food requirement mah!
These days...there is no famine....if there is a shortages...u just pay more loh...like palmoil u get supply mah!
but for chips....when there is a shortages mean shortages...cannot get supply even u willing to pay more mah!
Bcos not many can produce loh!
Posted by calvintaneng > Aug 14, 2021 12:53 PM | Report Abuse
Actually people should worry about food more than computer chips shortfall
No chips won't die but no food will cause famine
Now already Aug 21 yet palm oil stocks only 1.5 million tonnes
Later if not enough palm oil, wheat flour, corn or soybean how ??
There will be panic buying
2021-08-14 13:01
I would like to thank calvin tan for his warning he dished out timely so that many can get out as soon as possible to protect capitals
2021-08-14 13:03
so many mentions of palm oil counters. obviously another FUD to distract tech investors for his palm oil Pump & Dump scheme. KYY in the making
2021-08-14 13:04
Upstream players, Wafer & chips manufacturers will be fetching good profits next year as chips supply crunch has occurred and many tender high prices to secure their requirements. It doesn't mean downstream players would be benefited as well.
2021-08-14 13:15
Anyway, long haul investors of mid & downstream industries would ignore the short and mid term effect of the supply crunch. It is back to your investment horizon in the end.
2021-08-14 13:36
abang_misai I would like to thank calvin tan for his warning he dished out timely so that many can get out as soon as possible to protect capitals
14/08/2021 1:03 PM
Noted.Thank you.
2021-08-14 16:53
Y cry father cry mother warn ppl to sell tech? Even tech down, palm oil counters oso wont up. Wasting time only
2021-08-14 18:35
TSMC announces the turnover every month. It is a source to track bottleneck output volume and gauge the max capacity and the how long the crunch situation persist.
2021-08-14 19:08
IBs have been talking so much dropping of glove ASP until 2 years later. No IB mention the consequences of supply crunch semiconductor chips from now to 2 years later. All IBs are shouting technology growth nonstop without taking a breath in the middle.
2021-08-14 20:36
NOW SHOWING: THE TRILOGY OF FAST & FURIOUS SHOWS
PART 15
--- 1 - TOP PICK POSITIVE CORPORATE EXERCISE STOCK SIMILAR TO
IJM PLANTATION / 2216
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/see_research/2021-08-14-story-h1569741319-NOW_SHOWING_THE_TRILOGY_OF_FAST_FURIOUS_SHOWS_PART_15_1_TOP_PICK_POSITI.jsp
2021-08-15 13:21
TSMC output will be hitting max 3rd Qtr 2021. No room for adding new capacity over the next 2 years. What would happen to the mid and downstream players in next 2 years?
Revenue 'million
30 Jun 21 - TWD 13,289
31 Mar 21 - TWD 12,919
31 Dec 20 - TWD 12.676
30 Sep 20 - TWD 12,138
30 Jun 20 - TWD 10,385
2021-08-15 13:56
Guess how many of mid and downstream players would achieve double digit growth in next 2 years...
OSAT ( MPI, Unisem, Inari & Gtronic )
ATE ( Aemulus, Greatec, MI, Penta, Qes,Vis, Vitrox )
EMS ( Ataims, Eg, PIE, SkPres & VS)
Led ( D&O, Jhm)
HDD ( Dufu, Genetec, Jcy, Notion)
2021-08-15 14:11
Global OSAT & ATE & EMS players valuation.
OSAT (PER)
ASE 15x
Amkor 14x
ATE (PER)
Teradyne 23x
Advantest 23x
Chroma 19x
EMS (PER)
Foxconn - PER 17x
Wistron - PER 8x
Jabil - PER 16x
2021-08-16 10:26
Global HDD players valuation.
HDD (PER)
Seagate 16x
Western Digital 24x
2021-08-16 11:07
The market has priced in semiconductor companies to report better profits in the next 2 quarters max. No big deal. Everyone knows well and it is similar with the investors know glove ASP decreasing as new supply capacity emerged.
2021-08-16 15:10
Correct
Gloves have gone up into peak cycles and now gradually descending
2 factors
1. All glove companies saw peak earnings and some gave bonus issues and many spending money in bullish expansion
New glove wannabees joining in will end in glut
China also join the glove bandwagon
As a result the future will be flooded with gloves everywhere
2021-08-16 16:25
Tech has its futures all priced in
Little upside as the balloon so bloated and in danger of explosion or implosion
2021-08-16 16:26
Palm oil?
Still so unloved
So since still so cheap downside will be limited
Upside potential is immense
2021-08-16 16:27
Bursa Malaysia's OSAT & ATE & EMS players valuation.
OSAT (PER)
Gtronic - 27x
Inari -35x
MPI - 35x
Unisem - 33x
ATE (PER)
Aemulus - 82x
MI - 50x
Penta - 55x
QES - 52x
VIS - 35x
Vitrox - 63x
EMS (PER)
Ataims - 21x
EG - 31x
PIE - 18x
SKpres - 22x
VS - 22x
HDD (PER)
Dufu - 35x
LED (PER)
D&O - 108x
JHM - 48x
Hybrid
Greatec - 66x
Kobay -64x
SAM - 31x
UWC - 70x
2021-08-16 17:31
TSMC is the price setter of semiconductor chips and the market offers merely PER 30x. The company will keep growing in next 2 years as they can simply increase prices of the products. TSMC, Samsung and Intel had their plans for the new chips factory. Unfortunately, the new capacity will only be ready after 30 months.
In the absent of new chips capacity, how on earth our Bursa OSAT, ATE and EMS to grow the business in year 2022 and 2023?
2021-08-16 19:49
Global chip shortage may last until 2023, says Infineon CEO
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Tue, 17 Aug 2021, 10:37 AM
FRANKFURT: The global chip shortage that’s hampering companies from carmakers to computer manufacturers may linger for years, according to Germany’s biggest semiconductor company, Infineon Technologies AG.
The scarcity “may stretch into 2023” in areas where capacity expansion is slow to catch up with consumer demand, Reinhard Ploss, chief executive officer of Infineon, said in an interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
“Building new facilities and clean rooms in which the silicon wafers are processed into chips can take two to two and a half years; upgrading existing facilities three quarters to one year,” he said.
The chip crunch this year is hurting production at companies from Tesla Inc to Apple Inc and Microsoft Corp.
The amount of time it’s taking for manufacturers to get orders filled stretched to more than 20 weeks in July, worsening from the previous month, research by Susquehanna Financial Group showed.
Increased work-from-home needs and the catch-up effect in the automotive industry following pandemic-fuelled delays have become major drivers for the chip industry, according to Ploss. He also cited faster adoption of electric cars and growing demand for renewable energy among factors contributing to the shortage.
Among European companies affected is Volvo Car AB.
Its plant in Ghent, Belgium plant won’t run for three days next week due to chip shortages with some 5,000 workers being temporarily unemployed, the De Tijd newspaper reported, citing a company spokesperson.
The plant had shut for five days in the first half for similar reasons.
Ploss called for more efforts in Europe to reduce the continent’s dependence on foreign exporters in the semiconductor business.
He’s “open” to cooperating with other companies as long as it fits Infineon’s business strategy, he said.
2021-08-17 10:56
China Tech Fanatics already lost USD1.2 TRILLIONS (RM5 TRILLIONS WIPED OUT!!)
Still want to play Tech Bubbles?
See
https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3144807/alibabas-40-price-downgrades-us12-trillion-tech-wipeout
2021-08-17 22:10
Shortage of microchips to fuel the growth of 5G,Iot and Electric Vehicles. Come back to semiconductor 2 years later
2021-08-17 22:42
After tech bubble burst will come banks
Sell all bank stocks before they crash like Tech
2022-01-13 22:21
Tech touted by do many Experts and Gurus now bursting like a huge bubble "POPPING"!!!
RUN FROM TECH TO THE SAFETY OF PALM OIL STOCKS LIKE
MID CAP PALM OIL
SOP
TAANN
TSH RESOURCES
SMALL CAP PALM OIL
THPLANT
BPLANT
JTIASA
PALM OIL SURVIVED THE ASIAN FINANCE CRISIS OF 97/98
PALM OIL WILL ALSO DO EXCEEDINGLY WELL ALL THROUGH YEAR 2022 UNTIL 2023
2022-01-14 05:55
Ah Tan. Your mind is over cloud with palm oil and see nothing else outside. Bubble hasn't even starting forming in Banking sector.
2022-01-14 08:09
Sime Darby Plantation warns labour shortage may get worse for plantation companies in 1Q
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/sime-darby-plantation-sees-labour-shortages-worsening-early-2022
[[The shortage of workers has been identified as the cause of the 20% to 30% decline in the production of fresh fruit bunches.
"Our palm oil (industry) may not grow as stellar as before, due to limitation of plantation areas and we cannot compare the volume with Indonesia]]
Management already given performance warning so need more alert
2022-01-14 08:29
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