Good morning Friends,
The Law of motion tells us for every action there is a reaction.
In year 2019 Petronas pumped in Rm30 Billions for OGSE Upstream
And Upstream O&G Maintenance stocks like Carimin, Penergy, Uzma & Dayang jumped as high as 500%
Calvin lived through the exciting Bull years of OGSE in 2019
Many missed then chasing stocks of lesser momentum (But don't chase OGSE stocks now as Petronas will reduce capex & also pivot some funds to green solar energy now)
In year 2020 Corona Virus Worldwide Triggered the Once in a Century Glove Superbull
Topglove, Harta, Kossan & Supermax powered up more than 1,000%
Calvin went through that supersonic run when we bought Supermax at Rm1.73 chun chun & rode it to the peak of Rm24.44 (Over 1,000% upside)
Again many missed because they were preoccupied with Stocks of lesser catalyst or no catalyst at all
(And don't chase glove at wrong time now as there is HUGE GLUT Plus the China Factor)
Will You Be Missing The Palm Oil Bull Run?
THE CATALYST FOR PALM OIL BULL RUN ARE MANY (For OGSE the Single Capex of Petronas Rm30 Billions Cash infusion & Glove Bull catalyst was the raging coronavirus)
1) USA & BRAZIL DROUGHT CAUSED SHORTFALL IN CORN & SOYBEAN - LEADING TO VERY HIGH PRICES (AND PALM OIL A PROXY TO SOYBEAN OIL ALSO RISE IN TANDEM)
2) FAILURE OF CANADA'S CANOLA CROP DUE TO DROUGHT
3) CHINA'S VORACIOUS DEMAND FOR ITS DEPLETED SWINE HERD DUE TO SWINE FEVER
4) INDIA'S CROP FAILURE DUE TO MONTH LONG FARMER PROTEST & CROP FAILURE BY MONSOON FLOODS
5) RISE OF BIOFUEL REFINERIES IN USA AS THEY PIVOT TO GREEN ENERGY
6) NO MORE CONVERSION OF FOREST LANDS TO PALM OIL IN MALAYSIA & MORATORIUM IN INDONESIA
7) WHILE LANDS FOR PALM OIL STOPPED POPULATION GROWTH OF 80 MILLION PER YEAR CONTINUES (1% GROWTH OUT OF 8 BILLIONS MEAN 80 MILLION BABIES ARE BORN EACH YEAR
8) BEING A CONSUMER FOOD 50% OF ALL SUPERMARKET ITEMS CONTAIN PALM OIL
SO THERE IS ONLY ONE REASON FOR OGSE BULL RUN: ALSO ONE REASON FOR GLOVE BULL RUN
THERE ARE MANIFOLD REASONS WHY PALM OIL IS NOW GOING UP INTO A BULL RUN TIME AS CPO PRICES CROSSED RM5,000 A TON
ACTUALLY NO NEED RM5,000 : RM3,000 A TON ALREADY SUFFICIENT
RM5,000?
THAT IS AN EXTRA ORDINARY SUPER BONUS
Will you miss the Bull Run?
After missing OGSE Bull for 2019?
And missing Glove Bull last year?
Better stop & THINK
Best regards
Calvin Tan Research
Please buy/sell after doing your own due diligence or consult your remisier/fund manager
NOTE:
For CYCLICALS - RIGHT TIMING IS OF OUTMOST IMPORTANCE
Sell too early is bad
Buy too late also bad
You Should Buy A Cyclical At The Beginning of Upturn
Then Sit Still & Ride Through It
Buy during pessimism & Sell into Peak Euphoria
As of now only 20% to 30% of the Market is bullish on Palm Oil
So we can still safely buy
When 90% of the people are bullish on palm oil?
Then we must Refrain from buying & go contrarian & sell to Euphoria!
To do this needs lots of discipline & against the feelings & opinions of the masses - the masses of 80% who eventually lose in the market
Created by calvintaneng | May 02, 2024
Created by calvintaneng | Apr 29, 2024
Created by calvintaneng | Apr 27, 2024
Created by calvintaneng | Apr 06, 2024
Identifying a bull run stock a person's mind must be free from being beclouded by prejudice
Many did not believe in the Ogse bull run of year 2019 never realising that Petronas Rm30 Billions Cash Infusion into Ogse upstream maintenance companies could trigger bull run of strong earnings
By the time they found the truth it is already too late to chase.
2021-10-08 03:07
Again there were those who failed at TIMING
Last year when Topglove suddenly surged up to cross Rm8.00 there were those who SOLD too early and failed to see Topglove cross Rm25.00 later
But alot more timed it very wrongly buying Gloves just before the last leg of the downcycle
So they either made the mistake of letting go too early and again made the silly mistake of buying at the tail end of the Sliding Bull
Wrong on both counts because they failed to know Timing is of Utmost importance in a Cyclical
2021-10-08 03:13
Very happy morning
Yesterday in USA soyoil closed over Usd61 again
That means Fcpo prices will now find a new base at Rm5,000 a ton
And from new found level Fcpo will continue to move up into UNCHARTED TERRITORY
WILL THIS PALM OIL BULL RUN BE AS EXCITING AS LAST YEAR'S GLOVE SUPER BULL?
IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT PROBABILITY IS GOOD
2021-10-08 07:44
Go for it loh!
High cpo price loh!
Farmland very cheap now mah!
Plantation a protection against inflation mah!
2021-10-08 13:32
Thomas Chan Yeu Wai
not sure why KYY is silent on palm oil. I recalled in the past, cant recall exactly when but i think it was 2 years ago, he was bullish on Jaya Tiasa or WTK and palm oil in general.
2021-10-07 11:02