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A good wechat group ...id: MoneyIsClever

Last call

Liihen 3.2 vs pohuat

Duit kopi hari

Speculate meh ? Pls ask yourself lah

Uptrend now, congrats all

Kasi lu satu like

TP RM 1.50 is ok for me

Topglov

This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on January 15, 2016.
 
Jaya Tiasa Holdings Bhd (

Valuation: 1.40, Fundamental: 0.30)
(Jan 14, RM1.62)
Maintain buy with a higher fair value (FV) of RM2.18: We maintain “buy” on Jaya Tiasa, with a higher FV of RM2.18 per share, based on an unchanged financial year ending June 30, 2016 (FY16F) (forecast) price-earnings ratio (PER) of 25 times, but with a higher earnings per share (EPS) of 8.7 sen. This is three notches below its 10-year forward PER of 28 times.
We have raised our FY16F earnings by about 11%, mainly to account for a higher crude palm oil price assumption at RM2,250 per tonne versus RM2,150 per tonne previously. We have also tweaked FY17F earnings downwards by 8% due to a revision in the foreign exchange rate from RM4 to RM3.85 to the US dollar. 
At current prices, Jaya Tiasa’s implied enterprise value (EV)/planted hectarage is at RM20,000 versus Ta Ann Holdings Bhd (

Valuation: 2.00, Fundamental: 2.30)’s RM26,000 — a discount of 21%. At our target prices, Jaya Tiasa’s implied EV/planted hectarage is at RM27,000 versus Ta Ann’s RM32,000 — a discount of 15%.
Both compare favourably to the current implied EV/planted hectarage range of RM50,000 to RM80,000 for mid-cap plantation companies. The big caps’ implied EV/planted hectarage is well over RM100,000. The market EV/hectarage for brownfield land bank in Sabah and Sarawak is reportedly between RM62,000 and RM68,000. 
Jaya Tiasa’s fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield is on a recovery path after achieving only 12.5 tonnes per mature hectare for FY15, due to a labour shortage that led to the neglect of about 10,000ha of planted areas. 
It is on track to meeting our FFB production projection of 900,000 tonnes for FY16F (+22% year-on-year [y-o-y] at 14.7 tonnes yield). For FY17F, we are projecting a 19% y-o-y growth to over one million tonnes (at 16.6 tonnes yield) and 12% increase in FY18F. 
Recall that Jaya Tiasa recently announced that it will discontinue planting on its remaining plantation land bank of 0.4% or about 280ha of its estimated plantable area of 69,873ha, after December 2015. 
This means the end of the group’s palm oil capital expenditure cycle, which will be positive for cash flows. Apart from its previously neglected areas, the productive areas are sizeable at  about 60,000ha. Notwithstanding the stock having risen 40% since our upgrade on Nov 27, 2015, we reiterate that it continues to be a cheap entry into the palm oil sector. It is an FFB recovery play, aided by the weak ringgit and strong log export prices. — AmInvestment Bank, Jan 14

Buffett’s oil bet
FOR those reading business news headlines nowadays, there’s not a day gone by without reports on global oil prices.
Recent headlines point to the “12-year lows” that prices have sunk to, the parity levels between the US crude benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and the global benchmark, Brent, as well as the rise in inventories.
The losers from weak oil prices are the oil and gas explorers and the companies that service the oil and gas infrastructure such as rigs. The winners are not only consumers but also oil refiners, whose margins are better.

So it comes as no surprise when value-investing guru Warren Buffett, who controls Berkshire Hathaway, acquired more shares in Houston, Texas-based oil refiner Phillips 66. Berkshire, which own businesses from banking and finance to railroads, bought a further 5.1 million shares in Phillips 66 earlier in the month, taking its stake to 12.3%.
Berkshire has been raising its stake in Phillips 66 since early last year, according to reports, after trading a substantial portion of its stake in the company to buy a business involved in making additives that help crude oil flow through pipelines. It crossed the 10% threshold last August.
What’s intriguing about the acquisition is that while oil refiners are making better margins with the weak oil prices, there is very little downside left to the prices, so the upside to margins is also limited. Since June 2014, WTI has fallen by nearly 45% and while prices could hit US$25 a barrel in the coming weeks, it won’t weaken further even as supply looks to outstrip demand for some time to come.
Interestingly, Berkshire sold off the last of its stake in Exxon Mobil in the last quarter of 2014 as oil prices fell. Analysts believe that Berkshire still sees value in oil investments and that smaller refiners may be better prepared to benefit from a recovery in crude oil prices compared to the oil majors.
Therefore, it’s a very typical move by Buffett, taking the long view. Investors who wonder about the stake acquisition will have to likewise look at it from a long-term perspective and prepare for more volatility in crude prices if they want to follow in his footsteps.

Let's celebrate next QR

Petron Malaysia Refining and Marketing Bhd ( Valuation: 0.30, Fundamental: 1.20) expects to chalk "positive numbers" for the financial year ended Dec 31, 2015 (FY2015).

The group operations manager Jimmy Lu said in a launching ceremony of the RON100 fuel that based on the latest numbers, the group is moving into the positive territory, and it is expecting some good numbers ahead, while hoping for future sales to grow by 5% annually.

For the nine months ended Sept 30, 2015 (9MFY2015), Petron recorded a net profit of RM204.36 million, as compared to net loss of RM16.89 million, on better operating efficiency, stable margin and growth in sales volume.

"We have yet to report our fourth quarter numbers, and you will be able to better gauge our performance, once it is filed with the stock exchange later," Lu added.

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/01/15/buffett-expands-oil-bet-buys-more-phillips-66/

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/01/14/jaya-tiasa-a-cheap-entry-into-the-oil-palm-sector

Happy trading all

2 weeks u r rite, but the management change it to 3 days

N not 2 week of keeping stock, is 3 days only actually.

Yuefei, is this a maintenance break or purposely cleared the stocks for a good defensive of CPO?

Jtiasa is a new trees, harvest time is just begin. Production assuming of 900,000 tonnes for FY2016. N For PE , EPS, RATIO,...etc..must rerateting ourself.

Yuefei, petronm is the only one who's r not keeping any expensive old stock. it's had cleared all b4 maintainance. Within this bad periods, petronm is the winners.

Rm8 is ok for me

Rm18 is ok for me

icon8, top articles loh, fishing lah, they call fishing

Big player is hoping us to play if not drop lah

Cut lah, no hope

Can't go far

Bahaya u know bahaya

Ya but

30cents

.......

Must break 4.5 to go 5

Yup

Yes drop like hell

Bad news coming run run run

Last call