Posted by Kukuman > Aug 9, 2020 9:44 AM | Report Abuse X

Let do a survey on profit for coming qtr result. See who has the balls to put their name here

1)MYR200mil
a)
b)
2)MYR300mil
a)
b)
3)MYR400mil
a) Goldberg-428m
b)
4)MYR500mil
a)inPeace
b)
5)MYR600mil
a)
b)
6)>MYR700mil
a)Kukuman
b)

Supermaxx shipment to USA increased by > 100% - Q on Q.
Q4 turnover may be double or more - Rm1,055 mil turnover does hold water.
Pls refer to link below.
----------------------------------------------
https://importkey.com/i/supermax-healthcare-inc

Supermaxx shipment to USA increased by > 100% - Q on Q.
Q4 turnover may be double or more - Rm1.055 mil turnover does hold water.
Pls refer to link below.
----------------------------------------------
https://importkey.com/i/supermax-healthcare-inc current Q sHipment is bigger than sum of last 3 Q to US

Interesting article by pBlue on Vaccines- re: Sinovac

What we need is a Phase II trial and none of the vaccine companies have done that, most have compressed the trial process and went to a phase II/III hybrid trial to save time.

Phase II trial is to determine if the vaccine works. If it can prevent SARS-COv2 infection and how long it is protective. This trial usually last 1 year and have a few hundred people in the trial

Phase III trial is to determine if there are any rare but serious side effects of the vaccine. Usually last 1 year and has a few thousand people in the trial.

Sinovac like all other vaccine companies (Moderna/AstraZeneca) have decided with approval of their host nations to implement a hybrid phase II/III trial. So unlike a regular phase III trial, we do not know if the vaccine works and for how long.

Strong antibody production is one thing, strong antibody reaction after 6 months is another, and 1 year later is also another. I hope Sinovac vaccine performs better, because the other vaccine appear to start to lose potency within 2 weeks after the vaccine's second boaster shot. Unfortunately Sinovac has not released any data about its vaccine. Nothing from its phase I safety trial and nothing to backup it antibody production claim. Furthermore Sinovac is still submitting Phase II trial protocol to China’s National Medical Products Administration, even as they start 'phase III' trials abroad.

So chances of survival maybe not be 60/40, it maybe 0%, because the vaccine fails to give immunity lasting more than 2 months. I hope this is not the case, but we do not know.

Also I found mention Sinovac vaccine requires two doses. 200 million doses is not enough for 267 million Indonesians. That is only enough for 100 million people.

I just want everyone be clear where we are. These Sinovac trials in Indonesia and Brazil are really phase II trials. This trial in Indonesia is expected to finish in half a year at the earliest, Feb 2021. It may take longer.


https://www.fiercepharma.com/vaccines/china-s-sinovac-says-covid-19-va...-2

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/08/07/indonesia-to-start-phas...

A George Soros bet? Well, far from it. In fact I would regard it a safe bet. This is mainly due to 6 factors

1- Supermax's business model ie OBM- very high profit margin compared to the OEM model.
2- Supermax's ability to increase the ASP probably on a weekly basis.
3- Sell in forward and collecting 30-50% deposit to lock in sales. Apparently the lead time now is 12-15 months.
4- Glove are in short supply and the pandemic is spreading aggressively with no easing in sight.
5- Supermax's share price will be well supported by exponential growth in earnings for the next 4 quarters or so.
6.-Most scientists believe that Covid 19 will be around for a long time.

The projected PAT of RM475 is realistic.

A good article to mull over before the results are out on Monday.

Thank you CIA. Cheers!

KNM's Impress Ethanol set to soar as ethanol is the main ingredient for Hand Sanitiser-
Another Covid 19 beneficiary.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
KNM's Impress Ethanol Co., Ltd. (Impress Ethanol) is based in Bangkok, Thailand and operates a fully integrated ethanol production plant located in Chachaengsao province, Thailand. We manufacture and supply Biofuel Ethanol, 95% to 99% Denatured Ethanol and Industrial Ethanol from Green Feedstock using Cassava. Our capacity currently is at 400,000 litres per day ( 1.2 m litres per month ).

Thai ethanol producers are now allowed to sell alcohol to hand sanitiser and cleaning agent manufacturers without seeking government permission.

The energy ministry announced the change as part of measures in response to the Covid-19 outbreak. Only a small number of plants previously could sell their product to companies outside the fuel industry, but the Thai government is seeking to reassure the public that enough ethanol is available for medical purposes.

@Jinnieve, I have this gut feel that you have privilege information. You are keeping your cards close to your chest as saying more may put you in a bind. cheers mate!

@Jinnieve, you mean ASP raised 5 times after the pandemic?

@Jinnieve. Well written article on Q4 expectations. Yup, can't be lower than RM355m, totally agree with you.

Adventa is no longer a glove manufacturer, they sold their glove manufacturing subsidiary
( Aspion ) to Top Glove a few years ago. I believe they are a glove distributor now.
--------------------------------
Posted by wallstreetrookie > Aug 8, 2020 11:05 AM | Report Abuse

Aspion is under adventa partnership with TopGlove

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/freetospeak/2020-08-07-story-h151158...

Good article to ponder

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/freetospeak/2020-08-07-story-h151158...

Comfort's management need emulate the " New Normal" .

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/freetospeak/2020-08-07-story-h151158...

Good article to ponder, hopefully HLT adopt the same business in future.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/freetospeak/2020-08-07-story-h151158...

Careplus share the same business model, albeit to small extent.

I'm afraid you have to wait. Short selling suspended till year end and may be extended further.
--------------------------
Posted by shpg22 > Aug 8, 2020 10:01 AM | Report Abuse

Big money to be make from shorting Supermax.

@KL Liew, lets say we be super conservative by giving a 30 % discount, we can still achieve a whopping Rm402 mil PAT.

Thanks for sharing Bro.!
--------------------------------------------------
1. Jan 2020 Before covid
Manufacture selling price at USD 23/1000pc
Distribution selling price at USD 37/1000pc.

2. 18 Mar - 15 April
Manufacture selling price marked up to USD 50/1000pc, ASP hike 117%
Distribution marked up selling price up to USD 50/1000pc, ASP hike 43%

3. 15 April - 15 May
Manufacture selling price marked up to USD 70/1000pc, ASP hike 205%
Distribution marked up selling price to USD 80/1000pc, ASP hike 116%

4. 15 May - 15 June
Manufacture selling price marked up to USD 100/1000pc, ASP hike 335%
Distribution marked up selling price to USD 60/ 1000 pc, ASP hike 62%

Remark: Harta latest Q result only increase selling price at manufacture ASP 5.6%
Remark: topglove in earlier Q result only increase selling price at manufacture ASP 5%

-capacity … let’s say 24bil pieces / yr

-so per quarter >> 24/4 = 6 bil pieces

-equal to 6mil boxes of 1k per box

-For Q4 (Apr, May & June), with new biz model to do away with middleman and also increase in ASP, average ASP increase by only USD30 per box (net of incremental distribution & admin expenses)
.
-USD forex rate : 4.20

-So total impact easily : 6,000,000 x 30 x 4.2 = RM756,000,000

-Tax at 24%

-So PAT impact for Q4 shd be RM756mil x 76% = RM574,560, 000So total impact easily : 6,000,000 x 30 x 4.2 = RM756,000,000

Dr. Anthony Fauci says chance of coronavirus vaccine being highly effective is ‘not great’
PUBLISHED FRI, AUG 7 2020

KEY POINTS

1-White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci that the chances of scientists creating a highly effective vaccine — one that provides 98% or more guaranteed protection — for the virus are slim.

2-Scientists are hoping for a coronavirus vaccine that is at least 75% effective, but 50% or 60% effective would be acceptable, too, he said.

3-The FDA has said it would authorize a coronavirus vaccine so long as it is safe and at least 50% effective.

Dr. Anthony Fauci says chance of coronavirus vaccine being highly effective is ‘not great’
PUBLISHED FRI, AUG 7 2020

KEY POINTS

1-White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci that the chances of scientists creating a highly effective vaccine — one that provides 98% or more guaranteed protection — for the virus are slim.
2-Scientists are hoping for a coronavirus vaccine that is at least 75% effective, but 50% or 60% effective would be acceptable, too, he said.
3-The FDA has said it would authorize a coronavirus vaccine so long as it is safe and at least 50% effective.

I'm sure all of you will all agree with the calculation courtesy of sifu freetospeak.

SUPERMAX - HOW MUCH PROFIT FOR NEXT RALLY ?
Author: freetospeak


SUPERMAX capitalisation is at 31 bil. Assuming PE 25. Supermax need to make Annual profit of 1.25 billion or an average QTRLY profit of 312 million. (extracted from THE EDGE. This is for FY2021)

For Q4 FY2020 Bloomberg consensus estimate is 382 m - 71-30-24 = 257 millions

With the upcoming QTR 4 result.My estimate is about 447 mi > 257 m Bloomburg consensus
-----------------------------------------------------
(PAT 336 million - PAT 558 million (AVG 447 million)
------------------------------------------------------
For FY2021. My latest projection for SUPERMAX QTR 1 is about 800 m PAT to 1 billion PAT.

That is about 3.2 bill ANNUALLY (2.56x of Bloomber consensus)

or eps of RM2.46 x pe 20 = TP50.00 (ex-bonus tp 25)
--------------------------------------
I feel the announcement on Monday for Q4 will be pretty close to RM420 mil or thereabouts.

Watch the Panther roar and sour grapes suddenly disappear.

rr88 & Myoda - "You ain't seen nothin yet"

Nevertheless have a great weekend.!

A back door listing would be wise instead of an IPO.

Aaron_tan, aka A Troll.
----------------------------------
In Internet slang, a troll is a person who starts flame wars or intentionally upsets people on the Internet by posting inflammatory and digressive, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community (such as a newsgroup, forum, chat room, or blog) with the intent of provoking readers into displaying emotional ...

Upper limit today RM2.56.

Hexza's equity investments has increased substantially. Latest share prices of APPLE, NVIDIA, FACEBOOK and ALIBABA show the value would be about RM150 million, assuming the company is still holding these stocks.

“With the current outbreak of a new coronavirus strain, the demand for our ethanol products has increased substantially. Our ethanol segment’s financial results is expected to benefit significantly which should help offset any potential downturn from the resins segment.”

“There were no group borrowing and debt securities as at the end of the current quarter. It has a net cash balance of RM62.1m (RM0.31 per share), liquid assets (net cash and equity investments) of around 200 million.”

Focus will shift to hand sanitisers counters.

Focus here Bro, I'm sure you will agree ya.

SUPERMAX - HOW MUCH PROFIT FOR NEXT RALLY ?
Author: freetospeak


SUPERMAX capitalisation is at 31 bil. Assuming PE 25. Supermax need to make Annual profit of 1.25 billion or an average QTRLY profit of 312 million. (extracted from THE EDGE. This is for FY2021)

For Q4 FY2020 Bloomberg consensus estimate is 382 m - 71-30-24 = 257 millions

With the upcoming QTR 4 result.My estimate is about 447 mi > 257 m Bloomburg consensus
-----------------------------------------------------
(PAT 336 million - PAT 558 million (AVG 447 million)
------------------------------------------------------
For FY2021. My latest projection for SUPERMAX QTR 1 is about 800 m PAT to 1 billion PAT.

That is about 3.2 bill ANNUALLY (2.56x of Bloomber consensus)

or eps of RM2.46 x pe 20 = TP50.00 (ex-bonus tp 25)

Hygiene segment receives a blessing in disguise from Covid-19 pandemic

Good earnings recovery for OCP’s hygiene segment from the gradual ramp-up production of non-woven products. Management guided that the orders from the key customer that was secured in late-2019 remain robust and OCP had also received additional orders from abroad due to disruption faced by its former supply chain, caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Finally Hexza woke up from long hibernation and in style going limit up.

The hand sanitiser power house.

Don't worry ocean cash will give you lots of cash.

Good business they are in for this pandemic.

Hoseh!

Don't sell so fast let limit up first, then sell tomorrow.

Most likely limit up around 4.30 pm.

@cjp, thats absolutely hilarious. !

We don't trust anyone with a dodgy bird name.

We are savvy investors here, not short term trader /gamblers.

We are happy with our Golden Supermaxx here.

Collect below Rm5.

Hold your horses Harry. Results not out yet. He may be right. Tunggu lah.

Not late to buy Harry, market is talking about PAT Q4 of RM420-460mil.

By the way you remind me of the movie Dirty Harry - starring Clint Eastwood.

@ powerla- read this if you intend to buy.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/freetospeak/2020-08-06-story-h1511558505-

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/freetospeak/2020-08-06-story-h1511558505-

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/freetospeak/2020-08-06-story-h1511558505-

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/freetospeak/2020-08-06-story-h1511558505-

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/freetospeak/2020-08-06-story-h1511558505-

Well said geary !
------------------------
Do not be deceived: God cannot be mocked. A man reaps what he sows. The one who sows to please his sinful nature, from that nature will reap destruction; the one who sows to please the Spirit, from the Spirit will reap eternal life.

Human beings just don't understand...all great religions preach it...KARMA...But people think otherwise...human beings are ignorance by nature...¯\_( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)_/¯

@investorbat . FYIE 2021 Eps at RM2.15

PE of 30x works out to Rm64.50. wow!

PE of 40x - RM86 - wow!

Oceancash - A Favourable Tide in 2H20
------------------------------------------
Robust orders from hygiene key customer and received fresh orders from abroad, benefiting from the rerouting of supply chain caused by the Covid- 19 pandemic.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/freetospeak/2020-08-06-story-h151155

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/freetospeak/2020-08-06-story-h151155

You sound like a loser Ricky Yeo. Sad.

Totally agree with your projection for Q4 PAT of Rm447. I just want to add rm1 mil to it to make it RM448.- Die die lucky LOL.

Team Rocket, rr88 & masteryoda. You may be in violation of the following law. Be mindful of whatever you position this forum.

The Anti-Fake News Act 2018 defines "Fake News" as including any news, information, data and reports, which is or are wholly or partly false, whether in the form of features, visuals or audio recording or in any other form capable of suggesting words or ideas". A court may order that a person convinced under this provision after knowing or having reasonable grounds to believe that such publication contains fake news is punishable by a fine of up to one hundred thousand ringgit under the Act