@newbie8080 analyst briefing slide by Supermax management. This specific page on ASP was used as a reference by analyst i.e Lee Yin Leng a.k.a Leng Lui

Please correct me if I am wrong, EPS 20cents is in USD not in RM right? So need to multiple by 4
2 or 4.3

We all know ASP pre-covid 19 was USD20. Even if the average ASP in Q3 was USD25, now in Q4 is already USD 100 and above.

Revenue QTR 3 = 447 million is in RM?

@freetospeak. Just to check.
QTR4 sales = 6478 x 107.5 = 696 million

696 million in USD or in RM?

Lol

Derived blended USD98 based on USD100 (nitrile) & USD90(rubber). And this is not to take account of recent discovery by @freetospeak , retail price of USD250 for 1I pieces nitrite glove.

Sorry USD98 for 1k pieces.

If not Q4 2020, perhaps Q1 2020, EPS RM1 is possible.

@CharlesT, at blended ASP (about 69% nitrite & 31% rubber) of RM98 for 1,000 pieces, EPS=RM1 per quarter

@money888 I miss that point (50% production capacity until 28 Apr). But I have discount 50% EPS from RM1 to 50 cents just in case I might overlooked important points i.e production capacity.

@freetospeak you are right. Who going to believe 1 bil profit per quarter!

@Kok Wai, ASP $70 & $100 are based cross reference by those who attend to webinar with Maybank IB analyst a.k.a Leng Lui. So EPS RM1 for Q4 or if not Q1, 2021 is possible based on this assumption.

For margin of safety, can discount EPS 50% & new EPS = RM0.53

@iswara. Expenses should be same as only price does increase. Opex / Capex still same.

Earning Estimate - Q4 (01/04/2020 - 30/06/2020)

('000)
Revenue 2,261,867
Operating Expenses -353,018
EBITDA 1,908,849
Depreciation -13,088
EBIT 1,895,761
Profit before tax (PBT) 1,892,234
Taxation 455,272
Profit after tax (PAT) 1,436,963
EPS RM1.06

Based on assumption:
1) ASP per 1k pieces $101.83
2) USD1.00=RM4.30
3) Capacity 95%
4) Annual Capacity 21,750,000 (Additional 4.0 bil capacity on H2, 2020)
5) Quarter Capacity 5,437,500
6) Number of Shares 1,360,000 (1.36 bil)

7) ASP assumption $70 2 weeks (01/04/2020 -15/04/2020)
$100 4 weeks (16/04/2020 - 15/05/2020)
$110 4 weeks (16/05/2020 - 15/06/2020)
$121 2 weeks (16/06/2020 - 30/06/2020)
Average ASP $101.83

Manufacturer selling price $20 (Jan 2020)
$70 (18 March onward)

8) Operating expenses, interest expense, depreciation/amortisation similar to Q3

I run simulation in excel based on the above assumption. Q4 EPS = RM1.06

Disclaimer ; Simulation based on the above assumption which may be wrong/inaccurate. Need input from everyone for cross-checked / realistic assumption.

@Roslan67. If you have time, you can scroll back Supermax forum from mid-April. I follow this forum ; argument after argument and read comments especially @Pang72. The moment Supermax did sbb, I started to realise comments by @Pang72 made sense. Tqvm to sifu @Pang72 for sharing his thought/view on Supermax.

@Roslan67, I only invest in Supermax & Kossan. Now switch all to Supermax because OBM. Better pricing power than OEM.

@Total7, you are most welcome.

@freetospeak, after gathering all the information (disclaimer subject to information & assumption is correct) your 1.0 bil PAT is almost certain.
190 mil PAT is too conservative. I could be wrong but if we all are correct, we are sitting on the gold mines!
That is for sure.

I have a chit chat with friends at Sell-side at IB they even argued with analyst on TP that likely too conservative. Perhaps, analyst wanted to see the next actual quarter result as a better guidance to revise the TP.

@CharlesT & @probability, if you read Maybank IB report on Top Glove properly, the estimate PAT for Y21 increased about 9x vs Y19. What is most interesting even @ RM20, Top Glove is trading @ Forward PE 16.7 & +0.5 Standard Deviation of 5 years average PE. If you follow their report last month or last 2 months at TP RM6, Top Glove trading @ Forward PE45 & +2.0 Standard Deviation. What I suspect, now IB around the town just realised the actual situation and eventually revised their TP.

@probability, I think @freetospeak is really really conservative in his numbers similar to calculation by Maybank IB.

@Total7, full capacity p.a is 21.75 bil. 5.3. bil is per quarter equal 21.2 bil p.a. Remaining for contact lens business. This does not take into account 4.424 bil additional capacity that to be in commercial on H2, 2020.

freetospeak, Pang72, Calvintaneng all great sifu! Thank you for sharing useful info.

Thanks sifu @freetospeak.Yes, almost forgotten. Your profit estimate is conservative. Lol
Hahaha, keep the ticket tight tight Until at least Aug (Q4).

(5,300,000/1,000) x (USD80 - USD20) x RM4.30 x 0.76 = RM1,385 bil additional profit.
Not sure whether this is the right way to estimate the profit!!!
Hmmmm I could be wrong. Need sifu to check the assumption & numbers.

@ mrstrong, ASP from USD20 to USD80 is super crazy profit!

Anyway it is all about investment thesis. There is no outright right or wrong......until award announcements made by goverment or local telecom companies. In the meantime, the is a pocket of opportunity for day-traders or punters from now until the announcement day.

Big Shark Yes. China is exporting cements. If Malaysia import too many cements, country trade surplus will be smaller which is not good for MYR which eventually affect Msia sovereign standing. Supply of cements from both YTL Cement & Lafarge are ample and more than enough for our local infrastructure demand. I think government will given priority to local player and benefit the local eco-system. In the case of NFCF, Msia does not has 5G technology capabilities and make sense to rope in Huawei. For fiber optic cable, local player also capable to produce. Conclusion wise, RM4.2 billion for cable business is HUGE ENOUGH for everyone be local producer or China producers for that matter!

To implement mega projects i.e BM, we still need cements which YTL Cement & Lafarge will benefit. Using the same logic, we still need fiber optic cables and need more cables especially for NFCF.

Fiber optic cables will remain as backbone or internet highway regardless 5G or 4G or 3G or with or without NFCF.

Goverment to spend RM4.2 billion on fiber optic between 2020 to 2023 (4 years). That is HUGE!!!!

https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/487778

READ THE EXTRACT INTERVIEW CAREFULLY

" Lim said to support the digitalisation of the economy and wider adoption of Industry 4.0 technology in society, the government is also providing the necessary digital infrastructure by preparing to spend RM4.2 billion to provide high-speed fibre optic connectivity to schools and selected industrial zones."

Opcom only involve in fiber optic cable business. Not 5G. But all of these are related. See how serious government is. One announcement after another within this last one month.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/malaysias-5g-plan-advances-potential-boon-chinas-huawei

Jaden If you have bought, then hold tightly. Any price weakness is good to buy more. Still early to sell.

Opcom holds biggest marketshares in fiber optic business!

hiduphidup Yes very likely. Fiberisation requires fiber optic cables as backbone or "internet highway". Simply put, no fiber optic cables no NFCP. So hold Opcom shares tightly.

https://www.mcmc.gov.my/skmmgovmy/media/General/pdf/Industry-Consultation_NFCP_General.pdf