2020covid19

2020covid19 | Joined since 2020-04-30

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2020-09-23 09:31 | Report Abuse

solution, biohldg can go above RM5 like dpharma???

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2020-09-01 23:46 | Report Abuse

yeah, every hot counter sure have jokers to make us feel joyful everyday

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2020-08-24 10:15 | Report Abuse

up down up down first... do wave trading

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2020-06-23 13:21 | Report Abuse

"Fake" rebound, teasing gooshen, got it?

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2020-06-15 20:04 | Report Abuse

15-Jun-2020 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 753,000 shares on 10-Jun-2020.
15-Jun-2020 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 132,900 shares on 10-Jun-2020.
15-Jun-2020 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) acquired 27,000,000 shares on 10-Jun-2020.

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2020-06-15 15:27 | Report Abuse

proved, connect oh ya !!!!

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2020-06-04 01:01 | Report Abuse

RSAWIT vs TDM, who is better, faster?

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2020-06-01 02:49 | Report Abuse

easily breakout rm14

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2020-05-28 22:50 | Report Abuse

so comfort sold out huge, must have bought supermax too

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2020-05-28 05:03 | Report Abuse

VERY NICE AND NEAT forecasting from you, YTH888. TQ

YTH888 Don’t ask TP. Just read.

May 27, 2020 5:56 PM | Report Abuse

This is my assumption, Supermax is achieving the same profit as per last quarter Jan- March 2020. The mass of Covid Cases is April onwards.

To be really careful, I consider profit is constant in the coming 3 quarters. Therefore, EPS from Jan- Dec 2020 is assumed to be 5.42 x 4 = 21.68.

At current price, forward PE of 26.48 (5.75 / 0.2168) is really cheap.

Price = Future PE
6.00 = 27
6.20 = 28.59
6.50 = 29.98
6.80 = 31.36
7.00 = 32.28
7.20 = 33.21
7.50 = 34.59
7.80 = 35.97
8.00 = 36.90
8.20 = 37.82
8.50 = 39.20
8.80 = 40.59

You can see what PE you want to exit or enter or what PE you are willing to pay.

Quarter ending 31 March 2020
EPS / NP Margin / ROE / past 4 qtr PE
Supermax 5.42 / 16.18% / 5.90% / 55.46
Kossan 5.07/ 10.67% / 4.37% / 46.87
Harta 3.43 / 14.97% / 4.58% / 77.86
Top Glove 4.52 / 9.43% / 2.92% / 79.53 (result out next month)

Average PE of all four glove player = 64.93
At PE 64.93, price should be RM14.

Let’s just discount the PE at 20% for all the hype and overvaluation = PE realistically should be 51.30 end of 4 quarters

PE x EPS 51.30 x 0.2168 = price should RM11.12

ASSUMPTION
1. EPS is constant for 3 quarters
2. Hype and overvaluation, therefore, discount 20% of the PE.

I believe my calculation is very conservative and cautious.

Therefore, smart investor are putting huge funds in Supermax now. As the time goes, they sell of 30%-50% to realise cash profit. Finally, leaving 50%-70% to run its course.




——————————————————————————————————————————-
More explanation
Let’s say you think that 20% discount of PE is not fair or you don’t feel safe.

You can discount the PE by 30-50% or more,

Discount
20%- PE 51/TP 11.12/ Profit 93%
25% - PE 48/ TP 10.40/ Profit 80%
30% - PE 45/ TP 9.75/ Profit 69%
40% - PE 38/ TP 8.23 / Profit 43%
50% - PE 32/ TP 6.93/ Profit 20%

This is how they come out with your Target price.

That is why I think big funds will come in and happily make 20% profit.

I think PE 32 for a glove defensive stock during pandemic is an absolute bargain!

Also, you must remember that I discounted the current average PE of all the top 4 glove shares by 50% just in case, you think that it is overvalued. Not need for me to check the Weighted average for the whole glove industry.

I think I am beyond conservative and ambitious. PE discounted by 50%, you don’t feel safe, I don’t know what to say.





——————————————————————————————————————————-


Let’s all be logical

We all know the result for quarter ending March 2020

Market Capitalization / Profit March 2020/ Benchmark to Harta
Supermax 8733 Mill/ 71,056 Mil / 61%
Harta 36,762 Mill /115,579 Mil/ 100%
Kossan 11,344 Mil/ 64,903 Mil / 53%
We cannot count top glove because we don’t know the result

Market cap detemines How much the company should be sold for.

Supermax achieve 61% of Harta Earnings in the last quarter
Kossan achieve 53% of Harta Earnings.

Market capitalization for Supermax should be 61% of Harta at 36,762 mil x 61%= 22,424 Mil

Now market cap supermax is 8733 Mil. The variance between supermax market cap now and target market cap is 22,424 Mil- 8733 Mil = 13691 Mil

Let’s calculate to price
The formula to calculate price is market capitalization divided by number of outstanding share.

22,424 Mil / 1360 Mil share= RM16.48

————————————————————————
Overvaluation and hype

Let’s be very safe and conservative and for any under foreseen circumstances, Let’s discount.

Price should be after:
Discount 20% = RM13.19
Discount 30% = RM 11.53
Discount 40% = RM 9.88
Discount 50% = RM 8.24


————————————————————————
Logically earning determines how much the company should be worth.

If I bought a business that makes 200k a year, Valued at RM1 MIL

Let’s say I made the business make 400k, I should sell My business for RM2 mil.

Would you sell a business that made 400k for one mill, you wouldn’t.
—————————-—————————————————-

There’s a big gap with How much harta is worth and supermax is worth.

Almost 4.2 times the value, when supermax achieves 61% of Harta’s earning.

Based on this, either Harta has to be worth 16B or Supermax has to be worth 8B

Or harta worth 36B and supermax worth 16B.

Can Harta drop a bit and Supermax come up and meet in the middle?
28/05/2020 2:01 AM

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2020-05-23 11:29 | Report Abuse

To joyvest no why .Mr.why...... it is better to be sure than sorry............
23/05/2020 11:01 AM

you are the Mr.WHY here.
How about you share with us here, what's your success story (Which Counter) since you doing thing with 100%/Sure Confident. We all would like to know and invest into the Counter too

Stock

2020-05-23 10:53 | Report Abuse

joyvest TA is quantitative but where is the qualitative ??
23/05/2020 10:32 AM

Let me ask you, why there are still number of folks here trying to answer you, help you to understand?
Why they do that? Tell us WHY?

Stock

2020-05-23 10:31 | Report Abuse

joyvest i am not promoting or demoting any counter with on agenda. No one likes to listen to negative news. what i am doing is only create awareness of fear factor ( to you it may not be the fear factor ) . but coin is of two sizes.....head or tail....we just look at the head and ignore the tail?
23/05/2020 10:18 AM

Hi joyvest, counters going up because of people buying and keep pushing.
Using TA could forecast the price movement but still not 100% confidence level. As long as TA wise still good, people still holding.

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2020-05-01 18:58 | Report Abuse

wonderful achievement, congrats