Why is TSH priced at 1.08 today and not a multiple of this, as calvintaneng so generously or kindly predicted?

>>>
Posted by calvintaneng > 3 hours ago | Report Abuse

Zhuge_Liang

Calvin does not condemn or attack people

To brainstorm for the best ideas ok

Keep the peace even though we might differ
>>>>>


Not true based on his past behaviour: just have to review his old posts. calvintaneng is no saint.

In 2019, I think calvintaneng probably also said the same thing about NETX ... that no one knew about NETX the way he did. :-)

calvintaneng

I am surprised that you cannot see you are not so ethical in your posts.
I have been holding DLady for many years. It was never promoted, though I shared how DLady has been a very rewarding stock to have for these years.
As was in previous cases too, stock prices can go up or down for various reasons. It is not unusual for a stock to go up 50% or down its equivalent 1/3rd in a 52 week period.
Yes, DLady has hit a difficult patch the last few years. Its earnings are down, its dividends cut, profit margins shrunk, cost of goods gone up ... etc. It also has to spend a great deal of money (capex) for its new manufacturing plants. All these are known.
The question to answer is: Will DLady's business be better in 2 to 5 years from now? At the present price, will you be happy to buy, hold or sell the stock?

I always go through these thinking process, often keeping these to myself.

We had a long discussion on Netx for almost 2 years. calvintaneng should be ashamed of himself for all the remarks he made on so many people who participated in Netx. Did you even admit you were wrong or you have made a very big mistake in Netx? Of course, not. Pride and arrogance are your trademarks. We do not expect to have a good dealing with people lacking integrity.

Have a great day. My participation in i3 is purely investing for gains.

3iii

My friend was elated. Bumper income from his 100 acre plantation for a few months last year.

Another friend with 10,000 acres of oil palm plantation remarked it was painful seeing the fruits rot on the trees during the high price period as there was a shortage of labour in his plantation.

This month, my friend with a 3000 acre plantation mentioned he had a great income last year due to the very high price of palm oil and he does not expect to witness the same this year.

December 30, 2022

CPO expected to average at RM5,100 a tonne in 2022, seen at RM3,800 a tonne in 2023, says MPOB.

Profits of Malaysian plantation companies are heavily influenced by external factors

Conclusion:

Profits of plantation companies are affected by crude palm oil (commodity) prices which are heavily influenced by many external factors:

- seasonal fluctuation on palm oil production,
- weather conditions
- availability of supply of other major vegetable oils e.g. soya
- labour supply in oil palm plantations' FFB harvesting and unloading activities.
- strength of the ringgit
- increase in the oil palm productive areas
- tariffs for palm oil products

What does intelligent means in investing?

Benjamin Graham

Intelligent investor: this is an investor "endowed with the capacity for knowledge and understanding."

Intelligent here is not to be taken to mean "smart" or "shrewd" or gifted with unusual foresight or insight.

The intelligence here presupposed is a trait more of the character than of the brain.


The first rule of intelligent action by the enterprising investor must be that he will never embark on a security purchase which he does not fully comprehend and which he cannot justify by reference to the results of his personal study or experience.

Strong, thorough research is the most important part about owning stocks. (Benjamin Graham)
The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham


There’s one big underlying theme to this book. Yet, it keeps coming to the forefront again and again. It’s the one point that I believe Graham wants people to take home from this book.
Strong, thorough research is the most important part about owning stocks.
If you can’t – or aren’t willing to – put in a lot of time studying individual stocks, identifying ones that genuinely have potential to return good value to you over time, and keep careful tabs on those individual stocks, then you shouldn’t be investing in stocks.
Over and over again, Graham makes this point, in both obvious and subtle ways. He’s a strong, strong believer in knowing the company. If you don’t have clear, concrete reasons for buying a stock, then you shouldn’t be buying that stock, period.

Are You an Intelligent Investor?
Graham believed someone could be an intelligent investor in two ways:

ACTIVE OR ENTERPRISING INVESTORS - These types of investors have a lot of time to spend on building and managing their portfolios and also have a high risk tolerance. They must continually research, select, and monitor a dynamic mix of stocks, bonds, or mutual funds.

PASSIVE OR DEFENSIVE INVESTORS - These types of investors don't have a lot of time to spend on a portfolio or can't tolerate much risk. They must create a permanent portfolio that runs on autopilot and requires no further effort. This type of passive portfolio won't be very exciting, but it will get you steady returns over your lifetime.

This post just shows why calvintaneng is such an unintelligent Investor as defined by Benjamin Graham in his classic book, “The Intelligent Investor”.

calvintaneng, the hero of Netx is just rude.

Is i3 forum for the naked hero of Netx only?

:-)

This assessment of the integrity of the fund manager can best be summed up as difficult, subjective and based on your personal views. This view is also influenced by your interactions with others and this fund manager in the same industry. Eventually, in the majority of situations, it is a personal opinion.

Size of Holdings as at 31 May 2022
Company (‘000 shares)
Bioalpha Holdings 49,058


Interesting to see Bioalpha is in iCap portfolio.

Gruesome company by my definition.
However, net cash positive.
Balance sheet is good.
Will this company do better post-pandemic and also now that China has opened up?

Value investing by ttb.

CA 81.7 m
TL 29.5 m
Net net 52.2 m

NCA 115.5 m

Cash 39.7m
ST Borrowings 4m
LT Borrowings 7.4m
Lease liabilities 4.2m




Price per share 8.5 sen
Market Capital (RM)
: 117.14m
Number of Share
: 1.378b
EPS (cent)
: -3.35 *
P/E Ratio
: -
ROE (%)
: -27.46
TTM Profit Margin (%)
: -129.1
CAGR - Revenue (%)
: -
CAGR - PAT (%)
: -
Dividend (cent)
: 0.000
Dividend Yield (%)
: 0.00
NTA (RM)
: 0.122
P/B Ratio
: 0.70

Probably more shareholders burnt than benefited.

Peter Lynch delivered great returns while managing the Magellan fund for 13 years. Yet, when he analysed the returns to the shareholders, the majority lost money!

Similarly, I am of the opinion, even today, the majority of shareholders who had bought and sold icapital close end fund were losers. The winners are probably a minority who bought in the early years especially the initial investors into the fund at the time of launch, and who have held onto the stocks till today.

A Strategy for Losing Money

When a premium, particularly a high premium, is paid to own closed-end funds, the investor is hoping there is someone willing to pay an even higher price for the same shares. This fact invokes the greater fool theory.


Two events could cause this investor to incur a loss in their investing into closed-end funds too.
1. The first is the fund’s net asset value DECLINING, which should cause the share price to decline and is an inherent risk with any type of fund.
2. The second is a decrease in the premium. Should the premium decline FASTER than the fund appreciates in value, the investor could lose even though the underlying net asset value of the shares increased in price.

The WORSE-CASE scenario, of course, is for the fund’s NAV to decline and its premium to shrink—a double whammy.

Closed-end funds differ from mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by having a fixed number of shares.

Mutual funds and ETFs
As money flows into and out of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, the number of outstanding shares is adjusted. Mutual funds directly issue shares to and redeem shares from shareholders. ETFs adjust their share counts through creation units, which are large blocks of shares issued to and redeemed from institutional investors and large traders.


Closed-end fund
If there are more investment dollars flowing into a closed-end fund than the net value of its assets, shares of the fund will trade at a premium to their net asset value (NAV). It’s the law of supply and demand. More dollars will drive up the share price because transaction proceeds go into the pockets of selling shareholders, but never into the closed-end fund. (New investor dollars only flow into a closed-end fund when an offering occurs, which is not very often.)

ttb versus Laxey

iCapital.biz's ethos is to allow long-term shareholders to benefit from value investing, helmed by the respected ttb.

Laxey though is likely to put forward a simple and pragmatic suggestion to iCapital.biz shareholders: liquidate your company and cash in at its NAV (or close to it).

By definition, an open-end mutual fund trades at a price that reflects the market value of its holdings. So the price of an undervalued closed-end fund will rise if the fund is converted to an open-end fund.

Closed-end fund managers may oppose conversion for several reasons.

- First, they receive a management fee that is a percentage of total fund assets. After a fund is converted to open-end and the price rises, many fund investors typically sell, shrinking assets under management and management fees by one-third.

- Fund managers may also oppose conversion because of a belief that an open-end structure--which requires them to redeem investor shares on demand in cash--will hurt the fund in the long run, by forcing it to raise cash by dumping stocks of small, growing companies at inopportune moments.

How can the shareholders of a publicly traded closed-end fund narrow the discount of its share prices to its NAV?

Among the methods are the forced conversion of publicly traded closed-end fund to open-end mutual fund, or, in extreme case, the forced liquidation of closed-end fund.

iCap is not a new closed end fund. A new closed end fund can be expected to trade at a discount due to substantial underwriting fees paid to the brokerage firms that market the shares. Also, these brokerages may support the price through active trading in the days immediately following the offering, the firms typically retreat soon after and use their capital elsewhere. Once the firms are no longer supporting the price of a closed-end fund, it typically drops.

Another common factor affecting prices of closed-end funds are high management fees, which reduce returns.

The price for a fund's shares is primarily determined by the demand for the fixed number of shares. Investors consider the underlying market value of a fund's holdings, but share prices for the funds are also influenced by expectations, emotions and other factors that often affect prices in the stock market.

Closed end fund trading at huge discount is vulnerable to hostile raid, often by predators that are after short-term quick gains, rather than long-term bigger gains.

Is iCap facing a similar situation?

Fiscal year is July-June.
All values MYR Thousands.
2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 5-year trend
Net Income
200,558.0 76,129.0 (129,572.0) (191,011.0) (79,686.0)
Net Operating Cash Flow
322,551.0 146,361.0 184,580.0 67,239.0 156,776.0
Capital Expenditures
(21,055.0) (13,795.0) (23,206.0) (54,061.0) (80,785.0)
Free Cash Flow
301,500.0 132,566.0 161,374.0 13,178.0 76,511.0

Cash Dividends Paid - Total
- - - (4,840.0) (4,840.0)
Net Financing Cash Flow
(14,413.0) (110,691.0) (143,348.0) (71,090.0) (98,616.0)

4.94 per share

PENTA Financial Information
Market Capital (RM)
: 3.519b
Number of Share
: 712.32m
EPS (cent)
: 11.57 *
P/E Ratio
: 42.70
ROE (%)
: 13.13
TTM Profit Margin (%)
: 13.7
CAGR - Revenue (%)
: 16.1
CAGR - PAT (%)
: 18.1
Dividend (cent)
: 2.000 ^
Dividend Yield (%)
: 0.40
NTA (RM)
: 0.881
P/B Ratio
: 5.61

Segmental Information
The Group has three operating segments which are involved in different activities and are managed by segment managers who report directly to the Group’s executive directors.

The operating segments are as follows:
(i) Automated test equipment (“ATE”): Designing, development and
manufacturing of standard and nonstandard automated equipment;
(ii) Factory automation solutions (“FAS”): Designing, development and installation
of integrated factory automation solutions;
(iii) Smart control solution system: Project management, smart building solutions and trading of materials.

The Group’s revenue was mainly contributed by the ATE and FAS segments, constituting
approximately 70.1% and 29.9% respectively of the Group’s total revenue in FYE 31
December 2022.

The Group closed its 12M2022 with a profit before taxation of RM132.1 million, representing an increase of 10.6% from a profit before taxation of RM119.5 million recorded in 12M2021.

Basic earnings per share increased from 2.79 sen in 4Q2021 to 3.20 sen in 4Q2022 and increased from 10.24 sen in 12M2021 to 11.58 sen in 12M2022.


Automated test equipment
During the year, backed by the electrification in the automobile industry and the
proliferation of the electric vehicles (“EV”) ecosystem, the automotive industry
emerged as the leading segment within the ATE business unit, contributing
approximately 58.4% as compared to 27.6% in the previous year.

Underpinned by a massive wave of developments in automotive electrification and the various global decarbonisation policies which accelerated the adoption of EV, the Group’s broad array of automotive test solutions specifically the front-end tester for SiC and back end solutions for power devices made a meaningful breakthrough in the addressable market.

On the other hand, while the semiconductor industry is inherently cyclical, the ATE
segment also benefitted from the semiconductor industry with its revenue contribution rate of 19.9%, representing an overall 17.6% growth as compared to 2021.

In contrast, revenue from the electro-optical within the ATE segment contracted to
19.0% in 2022, from 49.7% in 2021,

Overall, the Group’s strong presence in the automotive industry has complemented
its ATE business and such positive development will continue to provide impetus for
growth to the overall Group’s ATE segment in the mid-to long term.

Factory automation solutions
The FAS segment of the Group has been gaining its traction over the last few years.
Since the listing of the Company, the FAS segment has been consistently recording
years of double-digit revenue growth with the exception of 2019 where a decrease of
18.4% was recorded.

The medical devices segment leading and driving the Group’s FAS growth this year
with its revenue contribution rose to 41.5% from 19.3% in the previous year. The
strong year-on-year revenue growth of 154.6% from the medical devices segment
was mainly driven by global manufacturers of medical products in adopting the
various process and assembly automation in their manufacturing processes for better
productivity and efficiency.

The emergence of digital technologies has accelerated the adoption of automation.
Many companies across various industries are seen adopting automation in a broader
manner especially in a post-pandemic environment in achieving efficiency and
productivity within a safe operating environment.


Smart control solution system
The products and solutions in this segment entail project management, smart building
solutions and trading of materials. There was no external revenue from this segment during the financial year.

Bought Heim ( Guinness) many years ago for just below RM6. For first 10 years, its share price was below my buying price. At the 10th year or so, its share price was at my buying price. However, due to its very high DY of 8% or thereabout, when its price was at my buying price, taking dividends into account, this stock had returned 100% at that point.

Today, its DPS is 81 sen. At buying price of about RM6, this is a DY of 13.5% based on historical cost.

HEIM

28.72 per share

HEIM Financial Information
Market Capital (RM)
: 8.676b
Number of Share
: 302.10m
EPS (cent)
: 136.65 *
P/E Ratio
: 21.02
ROE (%)
: 84.35
TTM Profit Margin (%)
: 14.5
CAGR - Revenue (%)
: 8.2
CAGR - PAT (%)
: 8.9
Dividend (cent)
: 81.000 ^
Dividend Yield (%)
: 2.82
NTA (RM)
: 1.620
P/B Ratio
: 17.73




FY 2022

PBT 594 m
Net CFO 488 m
Capex 193 m
FCF 295 m

Dividend paid 320 m

FCF yield 3.4%






Bought Heim ( Guinness) many years ago for just below RM6. For first 10 years, its share price was below my buying price. At the 10th year or so, its share price was at my buying price. However, due to its very high DY of 8% or thereabout, when its price was at my buying price, taking dividends into account, this stock had returned 100% at that point.

Today, its DPS is 81 sen. At buying price of about RM6, this is a DY of 13.5% based on historical cost.

FY 2022

PBT 594 m
Net CFO 488 m
Capex 193 m
FCF 295 m

Dividend paid 320 m

FCF yield 3.4%

28.72 per share

HEIM Financial Information
Market Capital (RM)
: 8.676b
Number of Share
: 302.10m
EPS (cent)
: 136.65 *
P/E Ratio
: 21.02
ROE (%)
: 84.35
TTM Profit Margin (%)
: 14.5
CAGR - Revenue (%)
: 8.2
CAGR - PAT (%)
: 8.9
Dividend (cent)
: 81.000 ^
Dividend Yield (%)
: 2.82
NTA (RM)
: 1.620
P/B Ratio
: 17.73

>>>>
Posted by SEE_Research > 33 minutes ago | Report Abuse

From calvintaneng ___ boh liau fella /

Means in Malay = HABIS THE GREAT K ON ARTIST, CALVINTANENG OF KLSE AND SGX

THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
CALVIN WANTS TO TELL ALL AT NETX (0020) , I AM KEEPING ALL NEXT SHARES TIGHTLY, Calvin Tan Research

calvintaneng
Publish date: Mon, 21 Oct 2019, 01:40 PM
Dear Friends, Investors & Traders

>>>>

Thanks for reminding calvintaneng and his side-kick, stockraider.

Pre-tax profit for FY2022 increased by 50% to RM2.25 billion (FY2021: RM1.50 billion) with contribution from Wilmar International Limited ("Wilmar") which increased by 40% to RM2.10 billion. All key segments recorded improvement in revenue and profitability.

The Board of Directors is pleased to recommend a proposed final dividend of 28 sen per share for the financial year ended 31 December 2022 (2021: Final dividend of 25 sen per share) payable on Thursday, 8 June 2023 to shareholders.

Together with the interim dividend of 12 sen per share paid on 28 September 2022, total dividends paid and payable for the financial year ended 31 December 2022 would amount to 40 sen per share (2021: 35 sen per share).


Price per share RM 17.50
Market Capital (RM)
: 24.895b
Number of Share
: 1.423b
EPS (cent)
: 154.42 *
P/E Ratio
: 11.33
ROE (%)
: 8.50
TTM Profit Margin (%)
: 35.3
CAGR - Revenue (%)
: 7.6
CAGR - PAT (%)
: 12.8
NTA (RM)
: 18.160
P/B Ratio
: 0.96

COASTAL Financial Information
Market Capital (RM)
: 1.282b
Number of Share
: 545.40m
EPS (cent)
: 78.61 *
P/E Ratio
: 2.99
ROE (%)
: 25.71
TTM Profit Margin (%)
: 149.5
CAGR - Revenue (%)
: 24.2
CAGR - PAT (%)
: 132.3
COASTAL Financial Information
Market Capital (RM)
: 1.282b
Number of Share
: 545.40m
EPS (cent)
: 78.61 *
P/E Ratio
: 2.99
ROE (%)
: 25.71
TTM Profit Margin (%)
: 149.5
CAGR - Revenue (%)
: 24.2
CAGR - PAT (%)
: 132.3


Cumulative 6 months ended 31.12.2022
RM'000
Net cash flows from operating activities 81.762 m
Purchase of property, plant and equipment (0.101m)

FCF 81.7m

In accommodating long term demand for fossil fuels, Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) technology has been practised immensely since the past few years to ensure optimum exploitation of oil resources. With the Jack-up Gas Compression Service Unit (“JUGCSU”) charter contract secured by the Group, which is currently in operation, the Group is able to effectively leverage its competitive advantage and strong foothold in this sector with promising prospects. Recently, Coastal Group diversified its earnings portfolio in Mexico by venturing into gas sweetening processing plant project. The Management is optimistic with the prospect of our Gas Processing Division.

The Management believes that the OSV market remains oversupplied but the market equilibrium has improved since FY2019 mainly due to the gradual increase in upstream activities and also due to increasing consensus that a large number of vessels
which have been laid up during the downturn may not return to service due to high reactivation costs and the reluctance of oil companies to contract vessels which have been out of service for longer period.

While waiting for the
recovery of OSV market, Coastal Group has embarked into liftboat chartering with a long term plan to tap into the wind farm renewable energy sector which is currently the fastest growing energy sources in the world.

Coastal Group shall still continue to pursue new business that suits its growth strategies, such as Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO), Floating Production Unit (FPU), Floating Storage and Offloading (FSO), Floating Storage and Regassification Unit (FSRU) and other O & G related projects.

Prospect

In view of the most rapid vaccine rollout globally, the global economy is expected to recover quickly from the Covid-19 pandemic triggered recession. At the meantime, joint commitment of Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plus non-OPEC major producers in tightening their supply shall further stabilise the global oil market. Given the strong recovery of oil prices driven by vaccine optimism and oil producers’ supply cuts, Coastal Group shall have *plenty of opportunities to materialise more deals in the short to medium term*.

stockraider is not honest.

Many years ago, this was already known.

On one occasion a few years back, he declared he bought a lot of a certain stock on a certain day. Alas, my good friend pointed out to him that this was impossible, as the total volume of the stock transacted for that counter was less than what he claimed he bought.

No need to have more example. One instance is all you need to reach a conclusion.

Have a great day, folks.

>>>>
Well, I know of many who own Nestle and DLady too. One got ESOS. every time the Nestle share was up by 10 to 20%, he sold. Though working in the company, he does not own any of the shares long term.
>>>>
I opine this friend was not knowledgeable in shares. He was extremely risk averse. Just fear he will lose money in stock. At the earliest profit, he sold to pocket the gains. All his Nestle shares were disposed below $20s which were the prices during that period. What he needed was perhaps some education and guidance.


>>>In the early 2000, Nestle shares stagnated. There was not much growth in the company. Nestle wasn’t investing into the company. On the other hand, DLady was doing a lot better. It’s growth was better and it’s returns eclipsed that of Nestle by a large amount. My friend advised, he bought DLady in preference to Nestle. In fact, he advised sincerely to sell Nestle and parked the money in DLady.>>>>

This friend was right during that period. DLady performed so much more than Nestle. In fact, it was painful to be stuck in Nestle during that period. But then, one was still receiving dividends from Nestle consistenly. Another reason for not selling Nestle was DLady was alreaddy in my portfolio too at that time.

There is only one strategy that works for value investors when the market is high – patience. The investor can do one of two things, both of which require steady nerves.

· Sell all stocks in a portfolio, take profits, and wait for the market to decline. At that time, many good values will present themselves. This may sound easy, but it pains many investors to sell a stock when its price is still rising.

· Stick with those stocks in a portfolio that have long-term potential. Sell only those that are clearly overvalued, and once more wait for the market to decline. At this time, value stocks may be appreciating at slow pace compared with the frisky growth stocks, but not always.

But come the correction, be it sudden or slow, the well-chosen value stocks have a better chance of holding their price.

As for the hot stocks, when they take a hard hit the investor is cornered. If the stock is sold, the loss becomes permanent. The lost money cannot grow. If the investor hangs on to the deflated stock, the long trail back to the original purchase price will deeply erode the overall return.

BELIEVING A BULL MARKET

When markets are rapidly rising, value investing invariably falls out of favor with the investing public. In an upward racing market, value stocks appear dull and stodgy as the more speculative issues rush toward new market highs. But come the correction, it all looks different. Stable value stocks seem like trusted friends.

Most bull markets have well-defined characteristics. These include:


Price levels are historically high.
Price to earnings ratios are high.
Dividend yields are low compared with bond yields (or compared with a stock’s particular dividend yield pattern).
Margin buying becomes excessive as investors are driven to borrow to buy more of the high-priced stocks that look attractive to them.
There is a swarm of new stock offerings, especially initial public offerings (IPOs) of questionable quality. This bull market is what investment bankers and stock promoters call the “window of opportunity.” Because IPOs so often occur when Wall Street is primed to pay top dollar, seasoned investors joke that IPO stands for “it’s probably overpriced.”

SIGNS AT THE BOTTOM

The bottom – or near enough the bottom – of a market cycle theoretically should be easier to call than the top or near top. The evidence is found in the corporate balance sheets, income statements, PE ratios, dividend yields, and other quantitative measures. It is likewise reflected in low ratios for the market as a whole. The quantitative factors speak for themselves.

The dividend yield on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, for example, usually cycles between a high yield of 6 percent at the market’s bottom and a low yield of 3 percent at the top. The Dow’s average dividend yield sometimes stretches beyond these boundaries, but historically this is a trustworthy parameter of undervalue and overvalue.

Unfortunately, this is the time when investors are feeling most beat up by the markets. Fear and negative thinking prevail, and anyone who has faced down a bear knows how paralyzing fear can be. This, at the depths of a bear market, is the time to buy as many stocks as are affordable. “Value bargains aren’t found in strong markets,” writes money manager Charles Brandes. “A good rule is to examine stock markets that have reacted adversely for a year or so.”

Undervalued stocks quite often lie dormant for months – many months – on end. The only way to anticipate and catch the surge is to identify the undervalued situation, then take a position, and wait, Graham said.

-----
Buying a neglected and therefore undervalued issue for profit generally proves a protracted and patience-trying experience.

Though market conditions are easy to see in hindsight; they are, according to Security Analysis, almost impossible to predict in the near or distant future:

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test
Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

DLady versus Nestle


SSLee prefers Nestle to DLady. Just like the way he thinks.

Let us look at these 2 stocks from the mid 1990s. For those who hold these 2 stocks from then to now, the total returns from both stocks have been superlative. These returns are superlative even though DLady has dropped from 65 to 30 the last 2 years and Nestle has dropped from its highest price of 165 to present 130. Note, the long term hold for almost 30 years.

Well, I know of many who own Nestle and DLady too. One got ESOS. every time the Nestle share was up by 10 to 20%, he sold. Though working in the company, he does not own any of the shares long term. In the early 2000, Nestle shares stagnated. There was not much growth in the company. Nestle wasn’t investing into the company. On the other hand, DLady was doing a lot better. It’s growth was better and it’s returns eclipsed that of Nestle by a large amount. My friend advised, he bought DLady in preference to Nestle. In fact, he advised sincerely to sell Nestle and parked the money in DLady.

Nestle started to grow is business when it identified Malaysia for its halal hub. Soon it invested more into its business.

The price of Nestle climbed fast the last 5 years. When it’s price rose to 80, another friend who owned Nestle shared the price of Nestle was too overvalued by his assessment. He sold. A few short months later, Nestle price shot up to 163. Yes, today, it has corrected over the last 2 years to 130.


Can you teach us how to capture the long term gains (an assumption you need not have to agree with) of these stocks or companies?

How good are you in selling at the top of a price chart?
How good are you at buying at the depth of a price chart?
How good are you in selling at the high and buying back the SAME stock at the low in your real life investing?
How certain are you in selling at the high and able to buy back the SAME stock at lower price, but find the price never dropped low enough or below your selling price?


LOOK FOR BROKEN STOCKS, NOT BROKEN COMPANY. (Jim Cramer)

Net Asset Value per share of icapital.biz Berhad as at 22 February 2023 is 3.39.

4.16 per share

PBBANK Financial Information
Market Capital (RM)
: 80.748b
Number of Share
: 19.411b
EPS (cent)
: 31.53 *
P/E Ratio
: 13.19
ROE (%)
: 12.20
TTM Profit Margin (%)
: 28.6
CAGR - Revenue (%)
: 0.5
CAGR - PAT (%)
: 2.3
Business+
: Member Only
Dividend (cent)
: 12.000 ^
Dividend Yield (%)
: 2.88
NTA (RM)
: 2.585
P/B Ratio
: 1.61


PBB is trading at fair value. With rising interest rate, investors demand a higher equity risk premium.

>>>>>
Sslee

3iii,
Have you sold your Dutchlady? Dutchlady can never compete with Nestle.

>>>>



Selling is often a harder decision than buying

"If you have bought a good quality stock at bargain or reasonable price, you can often hold forever."

Investing is fun. For every rule, there is always an exception.

The main reasons for selling a stock are:

1. When the fundamental has deteriorated permanently, (Sell urgently)
2. When it is overpriced, whereby the upside gain will be unlikely or very small and the downside loss will be big or certain.


So when should you sell?
Here are the five questions you should run through whenever you think about selling a stock, and you'll be in good shape.

Did you make a mistake?
Have the fundamental deteriorated?
Has the stock risen too far above its intrinsic value?
Is there something better you can do with the money?
Do you have too much money in one stock?

When you SHOULD NOT sell
By themselves, share-price movements convey no useful information, especially becasue prices can move in all sorts of directions in the short term for completely unfathomable reasons. The long-run performance of stocks is largely based on the EXPECTED FUTURE CASH FLOWS of the companies attached to them - it has very little to do with what the stocmk did over the past week or month.


The Stock Has Dropped

Always keep in mind that it does't matter what a stock has done since you bought it. There's nothing you can do to change the past, and the market cares not one whit whether you have made or lost money on the stock. Other market participants - the folks setting the price of the stock - are looking to the future, and that's exactly what you should do when you're deciding to sell a stock.

The Stock Has Skyrocketed

Again, it matters little how those stocks have done in the past - what's important is how you expect the company to do in the future. There's not a PRIORI reason for stocks that are up substantially to drop, just as there's no reason for stocks that have tanked to "have to come back eventually." Most of us would be better investors if we could just block out all those graphs of past stock performance because they convey no useful information about the future.

>>>>

Company X (US).
For illustration purpose only.


Trailing returns.%

1 day. (1.12)
1wk. (2.76)
1mth (6.66)
3mth (11.25)
YTD (11.07)
1 yr 1.49
3 yr 4.97
5 yr 6.04
10 yr 9.63
15 yr 8.05


What lessons can you derive from these data?
From the perspective of a short term investor.
From the perspective of a long term investor.


The latest newsletter of Berkshire Hathaway is extremely good. Warren Buffett shares his long term 80 years investing journey.

>>>

How you will analyse Dutch Lady?
The expected return of a stock is also impacted by the company's financial performance. Changes in a company's performance can affect the expected return of its stock in several ways, including:

Earnings: The company's earnings are a key driver of its stock price and can impact the expected return of the stock. If the company reports strong earnings, the stock price may increase, leading to a higher expected return. Conversely, if the company reports weak earnings, the stock price may decrease, leading to a lower expected return.

Revenue: Changes in the company's revenue can also impact the expected return of its stock. If the company's revenue increases, investors may anticipate higher earnings and a higher stock price, leading to a higher expected return.

Growth prospects: The growth prospects of a company can impact its expected return. If investors believe that the company has strong growth prospects, they may be willing to pay a higher price for the stock, leading to a higher expected return.

Management changes: Changes in company management can impact the expected return of a stock. If investors believe that new management will be more effective at running the company, they may anticipate higher earnings and a higher stock price, leading to a higher expected return.

Competitive landscape: Changes in the competitive landscape of a company's industry can impact the expected return of its stock. If new competitors enter the market or existing competitors gain market share, investors may anticipate lower earnings and a lower stock price, leading to a lower expected return.

It is important for investors to monitor changes in a company's financial performance and how they may impact the expected return of its stock. This can help investors make informed decisions about buying, selling, or holding the stock in their portfolios.

Company X (US).
For illustration purpose only.


Trailing returns.%

1 day. (1.12)
1wk. (2.76)
1mth (6.66)
3mth (11.25)
YTD (11.07)
1 yr 1.49
3 yr 4.97
5 yr 6.04
10 yr 9.63
15 yr 8.05


What lessons can you derive from these data?
From the perspective of a short term investor.
From the perspective of a long term investor.


The latest newsletter of Berkshire Hathaway is extremely good. Warren Buffett shares his long term 80 years investing journey.

When you find you are in a hole, stop digging and think what you should do. This should not take an undue length of time.

In investing, when you have made a mistake or in your own assessment, the fundamentals of a company have deteriorated permanently, your action is to sell urgently.