Red packet coming! Will the buyers of today & tomorrow be rewarded next week prior to the CNY celebration?

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm.....

Latest Shareholder's Interest by EPF & Tune Air dated 30/01/2013:

As of 29/01/2013 - Total held by EPF: 212,753,500 units = 7.76%
As of 25/09/2012 - Total held by EPF: 273,585,900 units = 9.84%

As 0f 29/01/2013 - Total held by Tune: 710,931,282 units = 25.57%
As of 24/09/2012 - Total held by Tune: 642,901,282 units = 23.14%

Folks, Tune Air has acquired a total of 44,080,000 units at an average price of 2.904 costing Rm128 million from 15 Oct 2012 till 29/01/2013.

Mewanwhile as at 31 December 2012, 48.29% were held by foreigners. Any "ANGPOW" from Airasia for this coming CNY?

Airasia X IPO

1. Dated 10,Nov 2011 Airasia X, the long-haul low-cost arm of Malaysia's AirAsia, said in October 2011 that it would make an initial public offering of shares in 2012.

2. Dated 02, Nov 2013 Airasia X, is offering up to 790.12 million shares in an IPO expected to debut by January 2013.

Well folks, 2013 CNY is coming. Any news on the IPO?

Airasia Japan also may not have targeted its flights effectively. The carrier charged a JPY1,000 (USD11) fee for passengers checking in at counters as opposed to kiosks or online, before dropping it on 19-Dec-2012 in the wake of the CEO changeover.

The carrier on 23-Jan-2013 expanded its distribution channels by accepting payments from half a dozen convenience store chains whose countless outlets dot the country.

Airasia Japan also incorporated payments direct from bank accounts. Credit cards are usually the staple of online ticket purchases but credit cards have a low take-up rate in Japan.

Cash is popular, as are re-loadable chip cards associated with public transport but available for use at other stores.

Australia's Jetstar, which commenced long-haul services international operations to Japan mid-last decade, has had time to build up its distribution and its brand recognition.

In launching Jetstar Japan, the Jetstar Group routinely noted its experience in the country and the Jetstar brand ranking in the top 100 in Japan, a respectable feat for a young and foreign airline.

What went wrong at Airasia Japan?

The market, looking for explanations on the performance of Airasia Japan, has focused on the professional career of the former CEO, Mr Iwakata. A storied ANA veteran who joined the carrier in 1988, Mr Iwakata in 2010 was the head of strategic planning Asia Pacific, the very department that examined the potential of LCCs in Japan and created the base for how ANA could enter.

Some believe that Mr Iwakata was judged as a natural fit for the Airasia Japan CEO position given his analysis of the market, but in the end did apparently not have enough of a naked LCC mindset after over two decades at full-service ANA, which can be a common problem in the industry.

But his successor as AirAsia Japan CEO, Mr Odagiri, was also a member of the strategic planning Asia Pacific division before joining AirAsia Japan.

The CEO position at Airasia Japan is not an easy one. Besides the typical competitive challenges, there is the need to balance the interests of ANA and the Airasia Group.

ANA has theoretical control with its 51% shareholding but, as is typically the case in these cross-border JVs, it is the branding airline (in this case, Airasia) that seeks to control operational activities.

Some strategic elements are even carried out at its main office in Kuala Lumpur. Cultural clashes are inevitable, given Airasia's shoestring nature versus ANA's more bloated organisation. Airasia Japan may have sought to reduce the number of hands involved when, at the time of the CEO switch, it reduced its directors from 10 to seven.

The ownership challenges are less at Peach and Jetstar Japan. Peach has a minority stake from ANA and is adamant, publicly at least, that ANA does not interfere.

Jetstar Japan has the most formalised relationship with JAL and Australia's Jetstar Group, which are some of the investors in Jetstar Japan.

The carrier replicates the Jetstar-Qantas "flying committee" to determine which unit should fly where in an effort to optimise profits and the strategy of each carrier.

Cancellation rates were also high at Airasia Japan.

The highest rate across Japan went to Japan Transocean Air (JTA), majority owned by JAL, with a 6.4% cancellation rate, but this was attributed to the typhoon that hit Okinawa, the hub of JTA.

AiaAsia Japan had a 3.5% cancellation rate while Jetstar Japan was at 1.4% and Peach 1.1%.

While Airasia Japan and even Jetstar Japan have clearly had operational problems – for one, they have under-estimated their home hub of Tokyo Narita's 23:00h curfew (Peach's hub at Osaka Kansai has no curfew) – part of the problem is also that Japanese travellers have been exceptionally pampered, as they have been in other aspects of daily life.

The near perfect on-time performance of ANA and JAL stands out, but this is nearly expected: the high-speed rail shinkansen is seldom late and apologies are often issued for trains running a mere few minutes behind schedule.

This high performance at ANA and JAL has come at considerable costs, in terms of utilisation and other areas that the LCCs are now trying to strip away. Airasia has clearly not found the balance while Peach and Skymark, with mid-80 precentages on time performance, appear to be doing better.

Airasia has also had poor on-time performance and cancellation rates.

ANA and JAL have on-time performance rates (within 15 minutes) typically in the high 90s, although this is at the expense of low utilisation rates.

Airasia Japan has been a stark contrast with local reports citing ministerial data of an on-time performance rate of 43%. Jetstar Japan has been at 74%, Peach 84% and Skymark 86%.

These poor operational figures as well as stories of substantial delays have received considerable attention in the local Japanese press, which has extensively reported on the formation and launch of the LCCs with impeccable detail.

While some outlets are embracing the long-term potential of LCCs for Japan, others are firing short-term warning shots.

Jetstar Japan had a stronger launch than Airasia Japan, beginning with an initial three A320 aircraft and building up to its present seven. Airasia Japan launched with two A320s and as of Jan-2013 has three.

Airasia and Jetstar launched during the peak summer travelling season and enjoyed high load factors before those fell as the off-season kicked in. Initial load factors would also have been higher given the extensive promotions ahead of their launches that included extremely low lead in fares.

A critical difference, however, is that Airasia's load factor dropped to around 10ppt below Jetstar's despite the two having a very similar network strategy.

In Oct-2012 and Nov-2012 (latest months for which data is available), Airasia even dropped around 8ppt lower than ANA and JAL, a somewhat worrying trend, as Airasia's typical break-even load factor is significantly higher than the full-service carriers.

Mr Iwakata's elevation to the position of chairman may have had something to do with this.

Official statements about the change were vague, but in the mere four months since Airasia Japan launched in Aug-2012, it had clearly under-performed compared to Jetstar Japan, which launched one month prior in Jul-2012.

Both LCCs are based at Tokyo Narita and offer an almost identical route network. The core network – services on trunk routes to Fukuoka, Naha (Okinawa) and Sapporo – is the same but with Jetstar typically having greater frequency than Airasia.

Jetstar Japan also has a smaller operation at Osaka Kansai and Airasia Japan in Oct-2012 launched international services to Seoul Incheon and later Busan, also in South Korea. Jetstar Japan remains an entirely domestic operation for now.

Airasia Japan, lagging behind Jetstar Japan, appoints new CEO!

Airasia Japan received a jolt on 17-Dec-2012 with the resignation of CEO Kazuyuki Iwakata. Mr Iwakata was at the helm of Airasia Japan since 2011 when the project was launched as a joint venture between ANA (51%) and Airasia (49%).

The abrupt change was smoothed over by Mr Iwakata taking up the position of chairman, largely a ceremonial one. In his place Yoshinori Odagiri was appointed, was previously Airasia Japan's head of operations division and safety management.

Folks, as at 31 December 2012, 48.29% of the issued and paid-up share capital of Airasia of 2,779,906,580 ordinary shares of RM0.10 each were held by foreigners.

The percentage of ownership of shares in the Company by foreigners has exceeded the limit of 45% of the Company's total issued and paid-up share capital.

Meanwhile EPF interest has reduced from 9.84% on 25/09/2012 to 7.66% on 28/01/2013 while Tune Air on the other hand has increased it stake from 23.14% on 24/09/2012 to 25.57% on 28/01/2013.

Peach Aviation, Japan's first new LCC, launched with services to a number of secondary cities whereas Airasia and Jetstar entered only trunk routes.

But now Jetstar will launch some secondary city routes of its own, suggesting an evolving route network strategy as well as responding to the market with agility, which airlines – especially in Japan – do not typically have strength in.

Finally, Jetstar looks as if it will steal Airasia's thunder by opening a base in Nagoya, Japan's third-largest metropolitan area. Airasia since nearly its launch has talked of a Nagoya base, making it likely Asia's two leading LCC groups will continue to battle head on in Japan.

Latest Shareholder's Interest by EPF & Tune Air:

As of 28/01/2013 - Total held by EPF: 212,753,500 units = 7.66%
As of 25/09/2012 - Total held by EPF: 273,585,900 units = 9.84%

As 0f 28/01/2013 - Total held by Tune: 710,931,282 units = 25.57%
As of 24/09/2012 - Total held by Tune: 642,901,282 units = 23.14%

Folks, Tune Air has acquired a total of 44,080,000 units at an average price of 2.904 costing Rm128 million from 15 Oct 2012 till 28/01/2013.

Any "ANGPOW" from Airasia this coming 2013 CNY? Well folks, only time will tell!

Airasia Japan and Jetstar Japan are about six months old now and already there is significant change at the fledging carriers:

AirAsia Japan has switched CEOs after sagging performance while Jetstar Japan will reduce its second base at Osaka Kansai, the home of Peach Aviation, Japan's first new LCC, which launched in Mar-2012 - suggesting Peach has efficiently maintained its presence in Japan's second-largest metropolitan area.

1. Parliament Dissolved on Friday, 22/02/2013

2. Candidate Nomination on Saturday, 16/03/2013

3. Voting Day on Saturday, 30/03/2013

In some markets, yes, the competition will be intense and that could have an impact on yields, leading to consolidation, likely impacting the smaller players rather than the big powerful groups.

Airlines have the flexibility to re-schedule deliveries, or enter into sale-and-lease back of their fleet. They generally pay for aircraft on delivery, not when they order them.

Folks, a "Happy Thaipusam" for those celebrating!

Budget carriers including Airasia Bhd , privately-held Lion Air, Cebu Air and Tiger Airways have 700-plus new planes on order.

These book orders are far too big as many of these new orders will prove to be too optimistic.

Folks, do not be shocked if from 700 for those carriers, the orders will go down to 400, 450.

There could be cancellations, there could be deferrals and this will happen, almost certainly!!

Folks, any "angpow" from Airasia prior to the CNY? Believers & non-believers any idea? Hahahahahahahahah!!!

Lion Air has an advantage over rivals because it already controls about half of Indonesia's domestic market, which has much further to expand.

Airlines and their suppliers alike have staked much on air travel in a region where passenger growth outpaces that of developed nations.

Currently, Airasia is growing at a pace of 25 new aircraft per year. With the new order of 100 jets, it will have a total of 350 new A320/320Neos delivered in the next 14 years.

The market of Asia Pacific is rapidly growing, and these two companies will continue to fight for it.

The rivalry between Airasia and Lion Air will continue to capture headlines from the Asian airline industry. The competition will be on price, which is good news for the customers but terrible for investors.

This is evident in Airasia’s stock on the KLSE which is down by 23.5% in the past six months. Both firms will be willing to compromise on profits for greater market share now.

So how now, folks?

Fernandes’ remarks come amid a backdrop of negative comments from some financial analysts concerned that Airasia may be overextending itself.

Airasia’s recently established affiliates in Japan and the Philippines have posted quarterly losses, and AirAsia faces the prospect of a costly price war in Malaysia.

Indonesia’s Lion Air is establishing an affiliate in Malaysia called Malindo Air, which aims to start flying in March.

Airasia’s affiliate in Indonesia, meanwhile, faces an uphill battle winning domestic market share.

It has also delayed its initial public offering (IPO) several times. Fernandes, in his Facebook entry, stresses that the IPO of Indonesia AirAsia is still on the agenda.

Folks, any news on the IPO for Airasia X?

21/1/13 - AirAsia, Asia's largest low-cost carrier, has scrapped plans for a Singapore joint venture due to high operating costs and lack of domestic market potential in the island republic.

BEFORE: Airasia was initially keen to establish a unit in Singapore, which would have allowed it to compete with rivals including Jetstar and Tiger Airways and fly to more destinations from the city state.

Latest disposal by EPF on 18/01/2013 2,603,300 units.

As of 25/09/2012 - Total held by EPF: 273,585,900 units = 9.84%
As of 25/01/2013 - Total held by EPF: 208,191,700 units = 7.49%

As of 24/09/2012 - Total held by Tune: 642,901,282 units = 23.14%
As 0f 24/01/2013 - Total held by Tune: 710,931,282 units = 25.57%

Folks, Tune Air has acquired a total of 44,080,000 units at an average price of 2.904 costing Rm128 million from 15 Oct 2012 till todate.

Any "ANGPAW" from Airasia this coming 2013 CNY? Well, only time will tell!

Airbus and Boeing Co have both issued brisk demand forecasts for the next 20 years, predicting 4 trillion dollars of aircraft deliveries, mainly on the back of emerging markets led by Asia. The bulk of that money will come from banks such as DVB, or leasing companies.

"Everybody thinks that not only the market will grow, which is a legitimate assumption, but 'my share will also grow,'" Grabowski said. "And 'by the way, if the guy next door grows, I need to make sure that I have the capacity to fight my market share,'" he said.

AirAsia and Cebu were unable to provide any immediate comment for this report, while Lion Air and Tiger could not be reached for comment, folks!

A glut of new capacity will force airlines to ply some less profitable routes, their margins.

Budget carriers including Airasia, privately-held Lion Air, Cebu Air Inc and Tiger Airways Holdings Ltd have 700-plus new planes on order.

These book orders are far too big, folks!

Many of those carriers are making the wrong decisions by trying to grow market share without anticipating pressure on profit margins.

For most of these airlines, the peak is over and they need to be more frugal in terms of capacity growth, otherwise they are going to kill themselves in terms of profitability.

Is Airasia one of them, folks?

Bursa website & other news report.

The fact is Tune Air has acquired a total of 44,080,000 units at an average price of 2.904 costing Rm128 million from 15 Oct 2012 till todate.

Across the region, discount carriers have placed orders over the past two years for at least $50 billion worth of aircraft, taking new Boeing and Airbus jets to serve dozens of fresh routes and replace their fleets.

They are betting the region's expanding middle class will demand more and more frequent air travel for years to come.

So folks, are you one of the middle class?

Low-cost Southeast Asian airlines risk jeopardizing their margins by buying too many planes too quickly - Influential aviation banker said

What say you, folks?

EPF Latest:
Disposed 17/01/2013 2,809,400
Disposed 16/01/2013 1,650,000
Disposed 15/01/2013 296,100

TUNE AIR
From 15/10/12 till todate acquired 44,080,000 units at 2.904 costing Rm128 million.

Southeast Asian airlines risk margins with expansion spree. So how now, folks?

Top 25 LCCs worldwide by capacity (ASKs per week): Dec-2012

1. Southwest Airlines 3,276,525,770

2. Ryanair 1,476,213,184

3. JetBlue Airways 1,214,788,293

4. EasyJet 1,124,069,015

5. Gol 913,465,718

6. Lion Airlines 810,548,478

7. Jetstar Airways 732,129,754

8. Westjet 703,526,653

9. AirTran Airways 593,301,841

10. AirAsia 592,750,621

11. Indigo 489,547,961

The Top Five LCC rankings remain unchanged, but big moves have occurred further down the list.

India's IndiGo and US-based Spirit continue to rise up the board, while AirAsia X has dropped back as it redirected capacity from long-haul European sectors to shorter Asian routes.

Europe's Vueling has grown a remarkable 40% measured in ASKs, with IndiGo and Lion Air each expanding 35%.

EPF
Latest:Disposed 04/01/2013 3,757,300

Disposed 03/01/2013 2,900,000
Disposed 02/01/2013 1,448,700
Disposed 31/12/2012 50,000
Disposed 28/12/2012 1,167,200
Disposed 27/12/2012 872,700
Disposed 24/12/2012 200,000
Disposed 19/12/2012 630,000
Disposed 18/12/2012 600,000
Disposed 17/12/2012 940,000
Disposed 11/12/2012 830,000
Disposed 05/12/2012 8,700
Disposed 04/12/2012 2,315,600
Disposed 03/12/2012 1,701,400
Disposed 30/11/2012 2,000,000
Disposed 29/11/2012 2,000,000
Disposed 28/11/2012 3,000,000
Disposed 27/11/2012 3,000,000
Disposed 26/11/2012 2,400,100
Disposed 23/11/2012 2,917,000
Disposed 22/11/2012 3,495,800
Disposed 20/11/2012 4,000,000
Disposed 20/11/2012 4,000,000
Disposed 19/11/2012 2,500,000
Disposed 14/11/2012 2,609,800
Disposed 12/11/2012 15,900
Disposed 06/11/2012 681,300
Disposed 02/11/2012 1,250,000
Disposed 01/11/2012 1,000,000
Disposed 29/10/2012 100,300
Disposed 25/10/2012 137,000
Disposed 23/10/2012 850,000.
Disposed 22/10/2012 1,698,700.
Disposed 19/10/2012 2,788,300.
Disposed 18/10/2012 3,000,000.
Disposed 17/10/2012 2,821,700.
Disposed 16/10/2012 1,361,300.
Disposed 15/10/2012 1,326,700.
Disposed 12/10/2012 1,400,000.
Disposed 11/10/2012 1,410,700.

TUNE AIR
Acquired: From 15/10/12 till 30/11/12 44,080,000 units at 2.904 costing Rm128 million.

Careful now, folks!

Airasia signed a contract to buy 100 narrow-body aircraft from Airbus at its UK factory.

The deal confirmed AirAsia as Airbus’ largest airline customer for the A320 single-aisle jet – but it appears that not everyone is impressed with the carrier that has become Asia’s largest budget airline.

Shares in AirAsia, which is listed in Kuala Lumpur, fell about 27 per cent last year – underperforming the Datastream Asian airlines index significantly, as well as the FTSE Bursa Malaysia, and suggesting the company has lost its status as an investors’ favourite.

EPF
Latest: Disposed 02/01/2013 1,448,700

Disposed 31/12/2012 50,000
Disposed 28/12/2012 1,167,200
Disposed 27/12/2012 872,700
Disposed 24/12/2012 200,000
Disposed 19/12/2012 630,000
Disposed 18/12/2012 600,000
Disposed 17/12/2012 940,000
Disposed 11/12/2012 830,000
Disposed 05/12/2012 8,700
Disposed 04/12/2012 2,315,600
Disposed 03/12/2012 1,701,400
Disposed 30/11/2012 2,000,000
Disposed 29/11/2012 2,000,000
Disposed 28/11/2012 3,000,000
Disposed 27/11/2012 3,000,000
Disposed 26/11/2012 2,400,100
Disposed 23/11/2012 2,917,000
Disposed 22/11/2012 3,495,800
Disposed 20/11/2012 4,000,000
Disposed 20/11/2012 4,000,000
Disposed 19/11/2012 2,500,000
Disposed 14/11/2012 2,609,800
Disposed 12/11/2012 15,900
Disposed 06/11/2012 681,300
Disposed 02/11/2012 1,250,000
Disposed 01/11/2012 1,000,000
Disposed 29/10/2012 100,300
Disposed 25/10/2012 137,000
Disposed 23/10/2012 850,000.
Disposed 22/10/2012 1,698,700.
Disposed 19/10/2012 2,788,300.
Disposed 18/10/2012 3,000,000.
Disposed 17/10/2012 2,821,700.
Disposed 16/10/2012 1,361,300.
Disposed 15/10/2012 1,326,700.
Disposed 12/10/2012 1,400,000.
Disposed 11/10/2012 1,410,700.

TUNE AIR
Acquired: From 15/10/12 till 30/11/12 44,080,000 units at 2.904 costing Rm128 million.

Cheers folks!!

What a perfect catch in a perfect storm on the morning session. Rewarded with a happy ending on the afternoon session.

Hoooohooooohoooohooooohooooo.......Tq Santa!

Merry Christmas, folks!!

Malindo Air ready for price war ?

Malindo Air launching By Lion Air comes right after AirAsia announced it was moving its headquarters to Jakarta.

The strength of these two Asian giants is evident from the sheer size of aircraft orders they have placed.

AirAsia is already one of the biggest buyers of the narrow body fuel efficient jets, while Lion Air is Boeing’s (BA) major customer.

Earlier this year, Lion Air placed a $22.4 billion order for 230 Boeing 737 jets in what is by far the biggest order in Boeing’s history by a single customer.

On the other hand, Airbus’s biggest order had come just a few months before from AirAsia for 200 Airbus A320 Neos with a total price tag of at $18 billion.

Folks, the entry of Malindo Air has an impact towards economy as well as towards the Malaysian aviation industry. The entry of Malindo air in the Malaysian aviation sector has the positive and also negative implications.

The presence of Malindo Air into the low-cost segment is set to create some waves in the local airline industry dominated by MAS and Airasia.

The entry of Malindo Air as well as to break the monopoly of Airasia in low-cost carrier segment.

Folks, have canx my buy Q at 2.45 ringgit. Have a feeling that luck won't strike twice today! Remember folks, don't fall in love with a stock!

Well I'm out already. Anyway still have a buy Q at 2.45 applicable for today trade only.

To those planning to buy at current price or still holding, all the best to you guys & gals! Merry Christmas!

Maybe a give from Santa for my good works since september 2012 on alerting others not to buy at a higher prices!

Could it be a mini "sucker rally"?

Well, good luck to those aiming higher.

My Q at 2.50 unexpectedly done this morning after the sharp fall. Anyway my Q to buy at 2.45 still there, only for today, ok folks.

Never fall in love with a stock!

Yesssssss...sell off at 2.58.......done....Tq folks.

Yesssssssss.......remember folks, take profit on rallies!

21/12/12 - creating another 52 weeks lower low at 2.49 ringgit.

Historical High: 4.20 (04-Aug-11). Will it close lower on the afternoon session? Only Time Will Tell!!!


Share Price Performance dated 20-Dec-2012:

Month : High price -(Date) : Low Price (Date)
1 mth : 2.910 (30-Nov-12) : 2.54 (20-Dec-12)
3 mth : 3.190 (19-Oct-12) : 2.54 (20-Dec-12)
12 mt : 3.850 (06-Jul-11) : 2.54 (20-Dec-12)

Airasia is one of the stock under the List of Regulated Short Selling Approved Securities’ issued pursuant to Rule 704.2(4) of the Rules of Bursa Securities Bhd.

Careful folks, possibility of more local & foreign funds aggressive selling, margin call & short selling on the afternoon session!

Remember folks, as at 29/06/12, a staggering 52.04% of shares were held by foreigners. What seems low and cheap generally goes lower!!! Heheheheheheheh!!

Folks, aggressive fleet growth plane by Airasia but the current domestic air traffic growth rate will not be able to support the fleet deployment plan.

It is not only Airasia has fleet growth plan, MAS and Malindo also have their own fleet growth plans.

The fact is the market shares in Malaysia are NOT big enough for MAS, Airasia and Malindo Air.

Foreign & local funds tend to clean up their portfolios by selling worst performing stocks towards the end of the fisical year.

More foreign & local funds selling, margin call & short selling of Airasia later in the afternoon session?

Well folks, Only Time Will Tell!