The Star reported Sarawak intends to take around 30% in Affin to be Affins largest shareholder. This will surely trigger a GO, if there is a change in Board Control. Sarawak will not achieve its objective if it doesnt take Board Control of Affin. Only time will tell, hold on to your pop corn and cola.

Enjoy the ride. The sell down was probably done by EPF. Similar pattern for UMW before the GO was announced. EPF was just selling down. Morning price will up and towards the end o the day a big sell down. 3 days later you will see EPF announce a major sale of shares.

The takeover code says if a party buys more than 20% from a controling shareholder holding more than 33% and changes/ takes the board control will be required to do a GO. These are on SCs website and has no exemption. Premier Abg Jo by saying Sarawak is buying more than 20% has spilled the beans. Question to all of us will Sarawak take Board Control?

I believe there will b a General offer if Sarawak takes board control of Affin

Looking at BAs interest cost in Q3 2023 of RM107M on debts of 4.5B, looks like BAs average cost of debt is abt 10% pa. This is based on companys analyst brief deck on their website. With Brent droping lower it adds to the problem. CGS has put a fair value of 40 sen if there is no extension of firm contract and 84 sen if 100% of extension is achieved with a discount rate/ factor of 13%. With borrowing cost at 10% a fair Discount factor should be 15 to 18%. Basically would u want to lend BA @ 10% or be a shareholder at 13%. I dont mind being a shareholder at 15 to 18% returns. We may see a correction but I am fairly bullish for it to hit 70 sen in 24 months provided karken, ASV1, ASV2, and Olombendo performs (these are the main drivers, rest is not important). TGT1, extension willmadd to the valuation. Enjoy the journey with BA and to share I will buy more if BA drops. I love free cash flows and not profits but mgmt MUST deliver.

In 24 mths if BA can deliver and with Akai comming on stream, we may see 1.00, provided Brent stays at 80 but if BA fails, its UGLY. Again, lets "enjoy" the ride and journey with BA. High risk, high rewards. Buy within ur means or sell if you are over exposed.

We have not even gone into DSCR ect. Probably this loan is also guaranteed by ONGCC as offtaker. Whats important is to find out if BA has invested more than equity of USD30M. And if BA is currently servicing the 948M loan. Normally NO for project loan until project kick off. BA announcements also doesnt indicate it has guaranteed this loan. As you correctly said its a reputation issue for BA.

Niki, see Armadas announcement dated 12 Sept 2023. Loan taken by ASV is 948M. Do ur math if free cash flow/ EBITDA is say 140M. How many years to tepay this loan, say at interest rate of 7%. Bankers takes the money first, whats left is for shareholders. Aramada didnt say they subscribed to any pref shares, if they did they would only receive payments after all financial covenants of the lenders are met. There is not much cash left after loan repayment. The firm contract is for 9 years. Bamkers want out before firm contract expires.

BA should concentrate on its 100% owned FPSOs and deliver the numbers and hope for the extension. Once a FPSO goes on the extension the cashflow is free and no more loan repayment for that FPSO. We should cheer when BA gets extensions. BA has enough on its plate and should just concentrate on reducing its debts and securing extension. The Akai development is timed rightly in 2026 coz by then BAs gearing will be low and would have secured some extensions of fpso's to embark on a BIG project. We also do not want an early project which will require a cashcall.

I dont know why we harp abt the 30% associate when its not worth much in to BA in financial terms. BA can chose to sell their 30% to their partner and move on too. Its is their partner and ONGCC who should be most worried. Its only a reputation risk to BA. Wouldnt be surprised once ASV starts operation BA may sell their 30% to their partner at cost plus holding cost and walk away. Still a good deal to BA being involved ans succesfully completing the largest fpso in India.

#rohank too had a point. This is an associate co, the debt of ASV amounting USD980M is not in the books of BA. Whats not answered, "is BA booking the interest expense of its 30% ASV in its accounts now or is it capitalised". The interest exp can amount to USD70M per annum and BAs portion is USD21M. Chances are its being capitalised at ASV. There is actually no cash flow value to BA as the USD230M/annual charter rate, normally 60% is free cash flow b4 financing or abt 140M. 70M goes towards interest service and 70M goes to reduce loan. So for next 9 years ASV will NOT contribute to BA any cashflow. In PBT terms 30% of PBT of ASV less depreciation, which will be peanuts.

Actually as what Niki said its a reputation issue to BA and not so much financial even though BAs investment is abt USD30M.

The longer it takes, the more pain it gives to shareholders who are waiting, especially in this weak market. KLK has all time to wait or else they may sue LTAT for breach and remedy. Let's see how this game plays out. LTAT under pressure from the political side, but KLK will just keep extending the dateline. Unless KLK throw in the towel(give up), the deal will be aborted. If LTAT abort must pay penalty. Its a waiting game now.

Building very strong base now. Lots of weak holders getting of at 55 to 58. Next resistance is all the way to 63. Once break 63 new level not much selling pressure. Strong support at 55 and 52.

Once break 1.30.. can expect 1.45 to 1.56.

Expect mild support at 1.15 and strong support at 1.09. Next resistance at 1.18 to 1.20 and later 1.30. Very safe bet, the best Q results to come in Q3 2023. Mgmt has mentioned that business is booming since 2H 2022. DSH2 to be major catalyst.

So with the pref share proposal, investors can invest in ordinary FGV shares like all other plantation companies and not tied up with the LLA assets.

The other balance land (no dev value) of about 80K ha is not under the LLA. So the Pref share only take the profit of LLA and some downstream bz whilst the ordinary share take profit of the other asset including MSM and the others.

The recent Pref Share proposal, will give a better split of the assets. Not all assets/land of FGV is under the land lease agreement. Only the 350K ha under LLA ie the original IPO LAND

You are right, #rohank71. You can also read pages 242 to 246 of the IPO Prospectus fo4 more details. Thanks for the heads up, rohan. It's interesting how the plantation land value is not given to shareholders of FGV but only earnings from the bz. It's like U a hospital. The hospital rents a purpose build building and derives the income but doesn't own the building itself. So we buy the hospital for the business or the building. Unlike IOI, KLK, we buy both the land and bz, but FGV we only buy the bz, and land is not for shareholders. Early termination shareholders get a compensation which is nowhere close to the land values.

exciting times for Perodua being the largest car producer and UMW being the largest high end part manufacturer.

UMW may tie up to produce EV parts? Tesla has said no local restrictions/ Ali baba if they open plant in Malaysia. Closest to full fill is the parts manufacturing.

the sell down of Feldas 3% block in FGV will happen after the bonus issue when Felda will do a road show and book building... anyway its only a 100M shares to be sold to meet the revised guidelines for public spread for large companies.

hi messi, there will not be anymore privatisation of FGV with this Pref Share scheme. Felda will end up with the 82% of the Pref Shares and will be willing to sell down their FGV shares via a placement exercise.

the corp exercise by FGV ie Pref Share actuallys give all CPO upside to FGV shareholders via the Pref Shares vs the mgmt using the cash for their unprofitable ventures.

is it correct to compare land values when the usage is different. pls share your thoughts. tq

Hi Calvintaneng, whats ur view on FGVs land is actually owned by Felda and has only one use ie plantation as the LLA is locked for 99 yrs.

this company is now controlled by QLC and no more LKS. management given to QLC and team. hence the special payout. see if QLC does something good to help us.

the board can manage the other companies within FGV but the profit from golden goose of FGV goes to shareholders.

interesting proposal by FGV. in short passing the golden goose from Board to shareholders of the company.

Looking at price trend, good chances of a deal being announced soon. i think the winning bid will be announced this Friday or early next week.

buying gaining momentum...have to break 1.18...watch the stock

results were consistant. epf have stopped selling and price will shoot up soon.

may be with options to buynmore BP shares in 6 to 9 mths from Bstd itself and gain control of BP

looks like YTL is making an offer to buy LTATs block of 10%... to gain entry into BP and use the land bank for renewable energy.

a buy for trade this week. enjoy trading.

technically should hit 25 sen soon. good resistance at 17 and 22... above 27 will be back to 32. watch these technical points.

i agree with the comments above but RHB pays out DV with DRP. so it can be a challenge cor OSK to commit the same DV to OSK holders and maintain their stake in RHB

mbsb expected to b no.1 islamic bank soon overtaking bimb if they do well.

mbsb q1 results will be most watched. if strong will hit 80 sen soon. problem is they have unconsitanent results, unlike most banks.

with better results end of may, kpj will be rerated higher by most analyst. expect a 10 to 15% rerating higher.

alaqar is great for passive investors. steady DV but growth capped. still a buy for long term passive holders.

Q1 is always supossed to b lower bz in healthcare. dont b surprised this time is different.

@observatory, Litrak proposed to sell their Assets at say 7% WACC. Thats the value of the asset (based on the concession agmt). ALR buys and proposes (obviously with Litraks support) to waive Govt Subsidy (and no more toll hike) and in return gets tax waivers ect. We all know Govt saves abt 4B in waiver of Subsidy whilst forgoing Tax hence geting ALR to buy at 5B.
If ALR sticked to the concession agmt terms and raise bonds at below 7% they make money (provided traffic forecast and actual is same). Since ALR has changed the terms of concession agmt, its deemed a new proposal and hence has diff factors to consider. Thats why MOW gave them up to 2040-2044 as buffer to ensure the fund raising is successful. This proposal is a BIG win for the GOM to avoid paying the subsidy. You may see all approvals has been obtained from GOM even before Litrak shareholders. Its not normally the case in other deals. Lets not worry too much and hope shareholders do not vote against the proposals.

@observatory hope i have clarified ur concerns.

technically we shareholder, if we held on to the shares till expiry would have enjoyed this returns provided no hiccups. or more if traffic grows strongly.

WACC is the dicount rate used on the FCF of Litrak to arrive at the valuation for ALR to buy. ALR is expected to make 7.95% returns per annum if bought by own cash.

cost of debt is for Litrak specifically and not for ALR. ALR is buying at WACC of 7.95%. (see page 58) so provided borrowing cost below 7.95% and no reduced traffic ARL will pay down the loans earlier.

10Y MGS was 4.5% in April and now its 4.06%. hope this calrifies ALRs position.

csan, the bonds rates have peaked in April 2022 and has been on downtrend since. bond market has discounted future rate hikes.

Ya agreed any dividend paid will reduced final payout. But as shareholders if the deal is a done deal they rather payout extra cash now vs waiting to complete the sale. Litrak has excess cash vs loan repayment and other obligations, so should be able to payout now if they are confident the deal is a done deal, just logistics. if the normal 15 sen, business as usual until all is signed and sealed.