@observatory, Litrak proposed to sell their Assets at say 7% WACC. Thats the value of the asset (based on the concession agmt). ALR buys and proposes (obviously with Litraks support) to waive Govt Subsidy (and no more toll hike) and in return gets tax waivers ect. We all know Govt saves abt 4B in waiver of Subsidy whilst forgoing Tax hence geting ALR to buy at 5B.
If ALR sticked to the concession agmt terms and raise bonds at below 7% they make money (provided traffic forecast and actual is same). Since ALR has changed the terms of concession agmt, its deemed a new proposal and hence has diff factors to consider. Thats why MOW gave them up to 2040-2044 as buffer to ensure the fund raising is successful. This proposal is a BIG win for the GOM to avoid paying the subsidy. You may see all approvals has been obtained from GOM even before Litrak shareholders. Its not normally the case in other deals. Lets not worry too much and hope shareholders do not vote against the proposals.

@observatory hope i have clarified ur concerns.

technically we shareholder, if we held on to the shares till expiry would have enjoyed this returns provided no hiccups. or more if traffic grows strongly.

WACC is the dicount rate used on the FCF of Litrak to arrive at the valuation for ALR to buy. ALR is expected to make 7.95% returns per annum if bought by own cash.

cost of debt is for Litrak specifically and not for ALR. ALR is buying at WACC of 7.95%. (see page 58) so provided borrowing cost below 7.95% and no reduced traffic ARL will pay down the loans earlier.

10Y MGS was 4.5% in April and now its 4.06%. hope this calrifies ALRs position.

csan, the bonds rates have peaked in April 2022 and has been on downtrend since. bond market has discounted future rate hikes.

Ya agreed any dividend paid will reduced final payout. But as shareholders if the deal is a done deal they rather payout extra cash now vs waiting to complete the sale. Litrak has excess cash vs loan repayment and other obligations, so should be able to payout now if they are confident the deal is a done deal, just logistics. if the normal 15 sen, business as usual until all is signed and sealed.

wait for Litrak Q4 (march 2022) results. if they pay higher dividend than 15 sen can say the ALR deal is a done deal.

the new facility in TTDI will enhance valuation by 15 to 20%... if all other things are equal.

looks like Q4 results will be good and potential privitization will be presemted to the board. whats more is opening of new 400 bed hospital in ttdi in april. see which is the catalist for the run up.

for those holding.. time to add more at 1.00.. u cant fight the downtrend but will surely recover as its a long term hold stock.

SM only enriches himself. its a fact and its all written in the wall ie relisting of malakof and even more interesting is he is taking mmc private cheaper than hiis injection and projected cashflows of ptp in 1999. shame to bursa.

MMC was a great play for all those who bought in last 3 to 4 years... sorry for the people who believed in SM and hoped he will deliver. when pnb can throw the towel on him it says alot... dont trust a crook.

cashflows were also good inspite of bad times. great opportunity to buy and lets hope it drops further.

strong support is at 1.00... which is 3 mth low. results was great esp during the pendemic times coupled with higher dividend declared. confidence of the board that bz is good.

well said @thinkcarefully. the esos sell down may bring price down and also due to down trend of market. last esos most exited at 1.10. its a good time to collect.

3.80 will be coming soon... technically but we also have results soon.. at 3.80 good support. see if it can break before results.

those who bought the call warrant would have made more esp the C29. kudos and thank SM.

wow fantastic. earlier than my expectation. well done but u guys will be even surprised when SM relist the ports at 15B or more valuation. remember a leopard will not change his skin... so is SM

heavy volume today coz probably EPf sold. price of Gamuda also up. similar trend this week.

well said @ observatory. thank you and i have learnt alot from u.

however note 21.02 also says can buy provided its not a pre arranged transaction. a loop hole in the spirit of the code.

they are quite responsive.

@observatort.. Para 21.02 of the takeover code prohibits buying shares above the offer price. looks like Felda has breached the rule. an email may be sent to SC at aduan@seccom.com.my

very intersting ... now I am concerned if I missed out anything understanding SC rules. tq for highlighting the above and I am too learning.

kesas has abt 2 years or less to go and smart not much in value in the whole scheme of things.. infact can b a drag.

am sure Scientex will have their plan on whats next and hence the decision not to extend the offer any further. there is no extra cost to extend and yet they decided not to extend.

my explanation earlier is on the basis of buying above the offer price... at or below offer price the offeror can freely buy anytime.

12 Jan to 15 Mac is the 60 days. yes they can buy below or at offer price.. not above. its a SC rule not to buy above the GO price. its no more abt compensation but fine and or jail term to the offeror

a revision in offer can be made anytime before the 46th day. once offer is closed the offeror cant buy above the offer price dor 6 month. and normally no offerors will make another offer within 12 months... or they may have another game plan.

"someone" has taken over this company. but to avoid a GO has broken the block of shares to smaller tranches/ unrelated holders.

in next 9 days should announce book closure dates and suspension. expected payout of 2.00 should be around 15th to 20th dec at the latest.

the tax is not at group level but at various subsidiary level. not sure how many of their subs make more than 100M

in short when u have good, steady and somewhat predictable cashflow, borrowing is easy and cheap. so why use equity. its just that how they gonna skin it.

i just gave a simple theory. the ppl at gamuda and the advisors will know how to skin the cat. they know the company better to do the necessary. this theory is not something new and was used by PLUS.

an offer can only be revised if its kept open on the 46th day. total period for a GO is 60 days max. first window 21 days followed by 14 14 days 11 days. the last 11 days is just accademic. 45th day revision to give time for IA to produce revised opinion within 7 days.

offer or value of litrak based on the same parameters if there is a highway trustb proposed to shareholders.

on the same parameters of the earlier valuation the new offer should be almost eequal to earlier offer.

value after 2 years of the proposal assuming no loss due to covid effect. hence i feel no value diminished yet due to the short life of the concession until litrak pays almost 100% of1 their earnings.

the value of 2.75B is a discounted value based on CF. assuming its discounted at 8% per annum, its should be 3.2B less DV of 240M the value shpuld be 2.96B

to increase its reserves they may consider revaluation of its concession to fair value.

possible for litrak to do a 10 yrs bond with 300M going to bond repayment and interest and 50M as dividend.after making a 2.5B payout as capital repayment.

u r right... gamuda may push for the trust with extension as they can continue with the maintenance for longer period and govt doesnt need to compensate.

normally if steady cashflow of 350M can easily do a bond of 6 to 7X or 2B to 2.5B. rates now lower.. a 7 yrs bond will attract an avg rate of 5% max.

early redemption of bonds attracts penalty... ie pay interest in full till expiry of the bonds with a small discount being the repo rate.

yes treat it as a 10 yr bond with little excitemnt of early payout. surely u cant beat inflation if inflation gets red hot. its a defensive play. more like FD money but bettr returns.

highway trust, shareholders will get paid in their discounted CF today vs bond issue will be 70 to 80% of future cash discounted paid today and balance 20 to 30% over next 10 yrs.

whether its a highway trust or just a simple fund raising via a new bond issue doesnt make any difference. highway trust helps the govt by aboloshing the toll compensation and extending the concession period. a new bod issue will b status quo...

chances are litrak will announce a debt equity/ a capital mgmt structure 9 to 12 months before its current bond expires. this is to avoid a penalty payable to current bond holders.