Malaysia econ not so good, IMDB debts, Oil Price, forex, just trade carefully

yesterday sold all at 2.80, may be i am wrong but sleep well

Malaysia’s international reserves fell further on the back of a climate of global uncertainty and plunging oil prices.

According to a Bank Negara statement, its international reserves amounted to US$111.2bil (RM388.6bil) as at Jan 15, compared with US$116bil as at Dec 31, 2014.

The central bank said the reserves position was sufficient to finance 8.1 months of retained imports and was 1.1 times the short-term external debt.

The drop represents reserves at the lowest since March 2011 while a Bloomberg report noted that reserves declined US$9.7bil in December, the biggest decrease since September 2008.

According to an economist, the drop in the country’s international reserves was due to foreign funds selling Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) in recent weeks.

“They sold Government Investment Issues (GII) in December and now they’re starting to sell MGS,” he told StarBiz.

GII are non-interest bearing government securities based on Islamic principles primarily used for development expenditure.

Ten-year benchmark MGS yield rose to 4.272% on Jan 7 before levelling off to 3.901% on Jan 16.

Yields have since climbed again and closed at 3.976% yesterday.

The funds outflow has also been reflected in the equity markets, with MIDF Research analyst Syed Muhammad Kifni noting in a report earlier this week that foreign funds sold RM1.42bil last week.

Last year, Malaysia saw a net outflow of US$2bil, the biggest outflow since the 2008 global financial crisis.

Global crude oil prices falling below US$50 a barrel prompted a revision of Budget 2015, with the fiscal deficit revised to 3.2% of gross domestic product (GDP) from the 3% target. Malaysia had last October projected a crude oil price range of US$100 to US$105.

GDP growth has also been revised to 4.5% to 5.5% from 5% to 6% earlier.

euro QE feel good factor, : )

The Energy Information Administration will probably report that crude supplies increased 2.7 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 16, according to the median of 10 analyst responses in a Bloomberg survey. Data from the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute on Wednesday showed an increase of 5.7 million barrels for the period, according to reports on Twitter.

The EIA report is projected to show that supplies of gasoline and distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, rose last week, according to the survey.

Oil retreated as the dollar strengthened against the euro after the ECB announced an expanded asset-purchase program.

“The ECB announcement has strengthened the dollar, which is going to give the markets a downward bias at least until the inventory data is released,” Thomas Finlon, the Jupiter, Florida-based director of Energy Analytics Group LLC, said by phone. “Dollar strength is the primary factor at the moment.”

up too fast, down also very fast, no joke

contra players will sell around 4.30, let see how, : ), enjoy the games

i decided to take profit first, wait and see, : )

Fracking is “destructive” and the U.S. is flooding the market, according to Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro. The OPEC member’s oil price reached $38 a barrel, he said during a national address broadcast on radio and television.

国际货币基金组织（IMF）下调今年全球成长预估，以及主要产油国伊朗暗示，如果石油输出国组织（OPEC）不采取行动，油价可能跌至每桶25美元。

prices go up too fast, high risks

Oil fell as Iraq said it needs to boost crude production and exports to compensate for lower prices, signaling the global supply glut that spurred the market’s collapse may persist.

it is time to take profit, :)

purposely push up blue chip, so that the nation forget about the reality

2.80 3rd resistance tested, but technically will drop back below 2.70 due to profit taking and the econ not as good as expected, my 1/2 cents

all in at 2.78 ? ha ha

SKPetro movement not related to oil price already, :)

Iraq, the nation adding more new oil to global markets than any other supplier in OPEC, said it needs to boost production and exports of crude to compensate for collapsing prices.

“Because of the new challenges, especially the price of oil, Iraq has to try its best to raise it oil production and exports,” Deputy Prime Minister Rowsch Nuri Shaways said today at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

據美國媒體週二報道，美國反恐專家稱，“哈里發國”（IS）就2名日本人質索要令人驚愕的2億美元（約7.2億令吉）贖金，顯示該組織在財政上已力不從心，尤其是在從黑市石油銷售收入銳減的情況下。

專家認為，要價過高的贖金要求顯示IS的挑戰不僅在於確保獲得軍火，還在於獲得更大的目標，即在所控制的廣大地區建立起一個伊斯蘭政府。

他說，石油價格的大幅下跌肯定對IS帶來重大損失，他們所攫取的經費將大幅減少。

該組織控制著敘利亞與伊拉克北部的多個油井，並在土耳其等地的黑市上銷售石油。自去年6月以來，石油價格下跌了50%以上。

Heng Ah Ong Ah Huat Lar, ha ha ha

2.65 breached, good, next, 2.74, enjoy the profit, : )

profit taking activities not as strong as expected, :but 2morow T3, let see, :)

ini kalilah, apa lagi, ha ha ha

not that easy 2.80, profit taking, contra, forceselling, wait n see, :)

2.55 2nd resistance breached, next level, 2.80, : )

Heng Ah Ong Ah Huat Lar, ha ha ha, buy SKPetro, I am

AS it appears, there’s no silver lining in sight for the oil and gas (O&G) sector that continues to see worrisome developments.

Earlier this week, the United States said it would go ahead with its plans to ramp up production this year and the next. This is notwithstanding the 60% slide in oil prices and indications that the US shale gas industry is more resilient that some of us think.

If the United States goes on with this increased production and the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) continues with its promise of not deviating from its strategy of keeping output steady, then one can only expect more downward pressure on oil prices.

No wonder then that billions of dollars worth of O&G and even petrochemical projects around the world are being axed or frozen as oil majors look to reduce costs. For example, Royal Dutch Shell is dropping its plans for a US$6.5bil (RM23bil) project to build one of the world’s biggest petrochemical plants with Qatar Petroleum; and UK-based Premier Oil is delaying a US$2bil project off the Falkland Islands until there was a recovery in oil prices.

Notably, the oil majors are also looking to squeeze their contractors and suppliers for their projects around the world, including in South-East Asia. This is in order to make their projects viable in light of the current price of oil.

This clearly spells some headwinds for local O&G players.

Even Petroliam Nasional Bhd has announced a cut in capital expenditure next year, which would hit local players.

The concern is whether the cash flows of locally-listed O&G firms will be able to support their debt levels.

According to one recent analyst report, the total outstanding debt of the 20 top listed O&G companies in Malaysia amounts to a staggering RM34bil. Three firms dominate the list and collectively hold RM25bil of debt. They are SapuraKencana Petroluem Bhd (RM15.8bil), Bumi Armada (RM6.5bil) and UMW Oil and Gas Bhd (RM2.1bil).

Low Oil Prices Compounding Problems At Petrobras

As oil companies around the world scramble to slash capital expenditures amid falling oil prices, Brazil’s major oil company is being assaulted on multiple fronts.

Already the most-indebted and least profitable major oil firm in the world a year ago, the company now faces two major crises in low oil prices and a festering corruption scandal.

The scandal involved a kickback scheme in which Petrobras contractors overcharged the company for projects, skimmed off profits, and paid off Petrobras executives and top Brazilian politicians with the proceeds. Dozens of people have been arrested thus far, but the problems are not over for the company. The U.S. Justice Department is also investigating because Petrobras is listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

immediate support wlll be 2.39 now, good

2.55 first tested. Once 2nd resistance at 2.55 breached, next will be 2.80, enjoy the game, : )

SapuraKencana Petroleum Bhd is set to be Shariah compliant with the signing of a US$1.23bil equivalent Islamic facility agreement with 11 local, regional and international banks.

yes, 0.735 all matched, : )

: )

ha ha ha

pity kancs3118, : )

thanks for sharing, :)

“Prices continue to free-fall and there is little that can stop them,” Amrita Sen, chief analyst at consultants Energy Aspects Ltd. in London, said in a report. “OPEC remains the only factor that can stabilize markets in the short term. But with the group out of the picture, the market is looking elsewhere for a tangible reaction.”

Oil Drops Below $45; U.S. Stockpiles May Speed Collapse

The United Arab Emirates will stick with a plan to increase oil-production capacity to 3.5 million barrels a day in 2017 even as an oversupply pushed prices to the lowest in more than five years.

“In this time of unstable oil prices, we are showing in Abu Dhabi and across the country that we remain dedicated to reach our long-term production goals,” Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said in a presentation in Abu Dhabi yesterday. “Our investments remain there.”

Oil extended losses to trade near $45 a barrel amid speculation that U.S. crude stockpiles will increase, exacerbating a global supply glut that’s driven prices to the lowest in more than 5 1/2 years.

Futures fell as much as 1.7 percent in New York, declining for a third day. Crude inventories probably gained by 1.75 million barrels last week, a Bloomberg News survey shows before government data tomorrow. The United Arab Emirates, a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, will stand by its plan to expand output capacity even with “unstable oil prices,” according to Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei.

yes, shidayea

good

世行国际石油：供需市场严重利空,原油未来何去何从

Collapse: Can Oil Dip Below $40 a Barrel?

国际油价跌跌不休，触动着全球投资者的敏感神经，随着油价的暴跌，俄罗斯卢布也受到重创，俄国经济实力受到质疑，其国债偿付能力再次成为敏感话题， 俄国政府不得不采取大幅度的紧急加息等一系列措施予以应对；与此同时，同是产油大国的委内瑞拉日子也不好过。全球市场再度泛起“阴谋论”，大家众说纷纭。



其中一个阴谋论是说美国企图通过操纵原油价格打压俄罗斯，这个论调支持者颇多，包括俄罗斯民众和其国家领导人普京本人。俄罗斯《晨报》网站曾刊 登了一篇主题为《美国向俄罗斯宣战》、副题为《目前还只是石油战》的文章，此文章称“越来越多的专家认为，这次油价下跌的原因与其说是市场趋势，不如说是 由于某国追逐私利和企图重组国际石油市场格局而引起的。”这出戏的主谋是谁很明显，就是美国，它希望将俄罗斯挤出市场，以便尽快向欧洲出口自己的页岩油 气。俄罗斯《独立报》也有一篇题为《石油摧毁》的文章提出，油价大跌是沙特和美国的阴谋，美国希望进一步加强对俄制裁，通过降低油价来破坏其经济，迫使普 京就范。俄罗斯总统普京也表示，并不排除油价下跌的背后有政治操纵，他谈到，“在油价的形成和确定过程中，从来不缺乏政治成分，尤其是在某些危机时刻，政 治因素往往在石油定价过程中占上风”。

还有一个“阴谋论”是说欧佩克(OPEC，国际石油输出国组织)感到蒸蒸日上的美国页岩革命的威胁，企图通过打压国际油价拖垮成本更高的美国页 岩油气行业，维护本来的市场秩序。OPEC调查报告显示，目前全球石油供大于求，每天有180万桶/天过剩产能，“如果将这些产能全部由OPEC承 担，OPEC将损失6%的市场份额，因此用价格战将那些高成本的油井赶出市场是OPEC必然的选择，而它首先瞄准的就是美国的页岩油气，因为美国市场过去 是OPEC的。”有专家称。所以，这场石油价格之战的主角是以传统技术开采石油的欧佩克各国和以页岩新科技开采油气的美国生产商，俄罗斯、委内瑞拉等国只 是属于附带损害（daños colaterales）。援引专家的话，沙特各国态度坚决，意在整垮美国页岩油气行业。美国得克萨斯州一家页岩油气开发公司的负责人表示：“与沙特争夺 市场份额的斗争正愈演愈烈。”

2009年以前美国是全球最大的石油进口国，每年的进口量达到5亿吨，占美国原油消费量的60%以上，然而在页岩气革命后，美国油气产量开始暴 涨，进口量开始大幅降低，甚至开始向外出口，而按照国际能源署（IEA）的估计，到2020年美国会超过沙特，成为全球最大的产油国。这是OPEC各国所 不能允许的，所以为了市场份额，无论油价是100、80、还是60美元，OPEC都必须接受，市场份额的不断下滑，远比油价的下跌更恐怖，因此必须为份额 而战，哪怕是困兽犹斗，也必须如此。

这两种阴谋论好像都有道理，尤其是后者，让人不禁浮想联翩。石油作为一种特殊的商品，虽然带有一定的政治色彩，但是它受市场供求需要控制的商品 属性在长期内还是要得到体现的，其价格还是要依据市场基本因素来判断。第一种阴谋论高估了美国对国际油价的影响力，油价重挫对俄罗斯经济造成沉重打击不 假，但是仅凭美国一国之力想操纵国际油价还真是办不到。而且，油价暴跌令沙特、委内瑞拉等所有产油国都受到巨大伤害，也包括美国的页岩油，所以这种得不偿 失的事，美国不会做，沙特更不会。第二个阴谋论倒是很说得通。但是，美国页岩油气都是私人企业，多到成千上万，他们的成本差异很大，平均在每桶40－80 美元；对于OPEC各国，其成本在每桶44－60美元，其实这样对比来看，在成本上，美国的页岩油和OPEC的石油，并不是相差很多，OPEC内部已经传 出反对价格战的声音“不要搞得美国页岩油气企业没被挤出去，委内瑞拉等国先倒下了”。

除去上述类似阴谋论的政治因素外，还有一个因素成为影响国际油价涨跌的重要砝码，这就是供求关系。目前原油市场处于供应充足，甚至供过于求的局 面。国际能源署表示，全球经济复苏步伐低于预期，中国经济对能源的需求和亚太一些国家原油进口增长减弱，此外，受益于页岩油气技术的发展，美国原油产量持 续上升。还有分析指出，此前动荡地区的原油生产也处于恢复状态，包括利比亚、伊朗和伊拉克等国原油产量都在大幅提升。

值得一提的还有，石油输出国组织秘书长阿卜杜拉2014年末在伦敦出席石油行业重要年会“石油和货币”会议时表示，目前石油供应在增长，但不至 于引起价格出现如此大幅的下跌。他说：“但不幸的是，每个人都在恐慌。我们真的需要坐下来，思考和观察今后会如何发展。”其中影射到了投机力量对国际油价 的快速下跌也产生了重要的作用。《石油战争》一书的作者威廉·恩道尔指出，“美国著名的投资银行在2008年的行情中扮演了最重要的角色，高盛、花旗、摩 根士丹利和摩根大通是石油期货交易的四大玩家，正是他们在原油期货市场上翻手为云，覆手为雨，掀起了一浪又一浪的油价涨落”。2008年石油需求尚未开始 大幅下滑，却爆出雷曼兄弟公司申请破产保护，原油市场上的投资者纷纷撤资，结果导致油价从每桶140美元暴跌至40美元。

国际油价继续探底，到底是美俄之争？还是OPEC的背水一战？是真的供需失衡？还是有投机大鳄从中牟利？2015年，相信不久谜底即将揭开！

本周交易提示：国际方面，印度出现糖厂工人罢工以及糖厂无法支付蔗农甘蔗款，生产也将停止，预计政府将出台原糖出口补贴政策。但是受原油下跌和美元大涨，以及国际原糖库存居高不下等因素的影响，美糖能否摆脱跌势，筑底成功还有待观望。

2nd resistance at 2.55, next level will be 2.80, enjoy the games, : )

Heng Ah Ong Ah Huat Lar, ha ha ha

Buy SKPETRO, I am

PITY......................................