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GoodCompanies | Joined since 2014-11-14

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Stock

2015-02-17 14:29 | Report Abuse

iphone4, yes, your assumption is correct. Your method is ok too, that is averaging down, which is a good way to make even more money if your particular stock is down a lot for no clear reason. Just keep in mind that if you average the prices, you lose info on the tranches you did (the 5 buys you mentioned).
When i buy by tranches, i go for minimum buy where the transaction costs is lowest. Any lower, the transaction costs will go up as usual. Sometimes i do buy a whole lot in one transaction, it all depends on the price and the sentiment. Also i keep note on the time value of money. This way, i will know for sure what my return would be. For example, if you hold CIMB shares for 22 months without gain, and then suddenly it gain 20%, you will only make about 10% a yr, not 20% (it is just for info, not performance).
Also, for each tranche, i typically set different buy targets. For example:

Tranche 1 $5 - 1000shares, to sell at 6.5 or higher
Tranche 2 $4 - 300shares, to sell at 6.2
Tranche 3 $3 - 300shares, to sell at 4
Tranche 4 $2 - 2000shares, to sell at 2.2
Tranche 5 $1 - 200shares, to sell at 1.1

The logic is simple. First establish position, second is buy on the way down (averaging down). The 4th tranche is only performed if the stocks is considered wayyy undervalued, and i think it is still good company. I will buy with everything i've got. Normally this is quite short term, and I will exit if stock is up by a few percent. The 5th tranche is speculative, and at this point, normally i will hit my max exposure limit for one stock. If the stock go down further, i will not buy. However, whatever happen, plane crash or not, i will not sell any of the shares. I will hold.
There was one particular stock i held recently, which i sold after more than a year, getting less than 10% profit. The funny thing is, after i sell it, it went up like crazy, up 300%! I regretted i exited from it completely. Now, it is always better to buy and hold if you like the company.

Stock

2015-02-17 10:04 | Report Abuse

Let me illustrate so everyone understand what we are talking about :)

For each tranche, it is managed individually, and tracked individually. When reaches target, it can be sold.

Price Total SellPrc Profit
100 10 1000 12 20%
100 5 500 6 20%

For averaging the share prices:

Price Total SellPrc Profit
200 7.5 1500 9 20%

U seems to be able to sell only when you reach 7.5 in price. However based on per tranche approach, it can be sold as early as 6 ringgit, not 9.

Of course the other thing that i don't like to average is the time value of money. You will not know how long you have been holding to certain shares. Using per tranche method, i will know exactly how long i have hold certain number of shares. Therefore the time value of money is not lost. Making 20% on a share for one yr, and in one month, is certainly isn't the same.

Another problem is when shares are averaged, i feel that i don't learn as much from each of the decision making in purchasing the shares. When i manage it based on tranches, i know exactly what happen to each trade. From here, i learn the result of previous decision making. This is quite valuable.

Another small issue is the transaction costs. Using per tranche method, each one must stand on their own, therefore using its own trading costs. If i use averaging method, i will need to sum up all of the trading costs together. This is more complicated if you don't sell off in one lump sump, but sold instead in tranches. This will complicate the net profit calculations. Of course per tranche method has some drawback, e.g. one of it is that it is a bit difficult to sell half of a tranche, but it has not stop me from doing that as it is only math issue.

Stock

2015-02-16 18:07 | Report Abuse

Goodlah...got ang pow...
iphone4, i don't follow or calculate average purchase price. If it is calculated, i typically ignore it. I buy in tranches, each one has its own merit. I sell accordingly. This way i know which one is making money, which is not.
Also i will make sure each one do make money. I don't like the idea of the low ones subsidizing the high price ones. Also i don't want to confuse my investment decision as to why i decided to buy at that particular price in time. If it is averaged, i will not really know why, gain by how much, you know.

Stock

2015-02-16 13:27 | Report Abuse

Sold one tranche today. Good price action.

Stock

2015-02-16 13:22 | Report Abuse

Lucky i added the other day. Now i am selling it out for a gain of 14.8%. I still hold several more tranches of QL.

Stock

2015-02-16 13:18 | Report Abuse

But it will largely depend on the price of the rights issue, and the dilution effects. Maybe little change for the CW.

Stock

2015-02-16 13:17 | Report Abuse

Yes they will change it. They will issue new addendum to the existing calls. It will be posted directly to Bursa.

Stock

2015-02-13 11:11 | Report Abuse

davidkkw79, i think Greek will exit the Euro. Maybe got some havoc then, chance to buy stocks

Stock

2015-02-11 09:13 | Report Abuse

iphone4, yes that's right. At this level, i think it is quite cheap. Lots of negative news, but looking ahead, i think they are on the right footing. If malaysia's economy wavers, all other banks will suffer, especially Public Bank. Some diversification is necessary. I am bullish on Indon economy for the next few years.

Stock

2015-02-11 09:10 | Report Abuse

Lk Hua, that is so true. I am thinking of the same strategy by them.

News & Blogs

2015-01-30 17:54 | Report Abuse

The Edge is lousy. I don't like them anyway. I have commented directly to Mr Tong before, he answered it. But i guess he have a different opinion.

Stock

2015-01-30 17:48 | Report Abuse

Olorr..the link somehow not include the "=1". Pls copy and paste. Otherwise just go to the standard.

Stock

2015-01-30 15:16 | Report Abuse

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=30&art_id=153783&sid=43787209&con_type=1
This is proof why AirAsia is still the leader in low cost airlines...
Nobody can beat the price..it was reported in an HK paper.
Also it is the best value for money, cheap but good.
So i am planning to subscribe to the rights issue.

Stock

2015-01-29 13:57 | Report Abuse

JN88, so true, jobs are abundant.
Jeevs, what has got to do with a good company? Didn't my nick already mentioned "Good Companies"? Of course i check on them from time to time. Good service experience is everything to the company. Money comes later. Without it, no money, just musical chair.
I just bought new tranche of CIMB shares.

Stock

2015-01-29 13:52 | Report Abuse

If i am Tony, to fight the few hundreds wannabe lowcost airlines all over the place in SEA, i would drop price. in fact i would drop the price really hard. Even if i suffer for short term, be it. Only the strongest will survive, and i bet i will survive.
I think this could be one of TF strategy. Maybe after a yr, only half of the competitors will be left, the rest could be dead. So lesson here is, you just have to consider long term. Short term, lots of pain.
If they go for rights issue, it is ok, especially if paying debt. if the company pay interest on the debt, better get it from shareholders, and pay us interest (but later in the future la).
So if the price is right for the rights issue, i will rightly subscribe to it.

Stock

2015-01-28 10:22 | Report Abuse

davidkkw79, no worry. We've been through so many stocks slumps and disasters already. The world goes on and companies goes on doing what they do best. There is no reason to sell unless you really have proofs that things are tanking, especially inside the company. I just went to CIMB, the service is still excellent and staffs still motivated. Good banking experience.

Stock

2015-01-28 10:20 | Report Abuse

Now got reports saying the current CEO has never even submitted his resignation....I have met Azran once before. He is kind of a fighter. But as long as master tony backing him, he can stay. Once the mood changes, off you go...
How about the rest of you here? Do we want a new CEO or not?

Stock

2015-01-26 13:51 | Report Abuse

JN88...i think that's the game plan lah..so we better preempt..

Stock

2015-01-26 13:48 | Report Abuse

GetReal, still can buy lah at this level. When go up maybe to 80, need to be selling probably, unless everything is excellent..than can hold a bit more..
For long term investment, i will only sell a portion, the rest keep for long long time..
When go down...buy back..i think many are doing this.

Stock

2015-01-26 13:46 | Report Abuse

Not so good decision to abolished fuel surcharge at this juncture...this will bring in slightly less revenue...this will make our bet that Airasia X to enjoy higher income due to fuel reduction, less chance and maybe longer period. I hope no matter what, the company will be profitable in a quarter or two at the most.

Stock

2015-01-23 09:19 | Report Abuse

CIMB has positioned itself in growth countries around SEA. Only placed missing is Phillipines. Looking at CIMB in general, over the long term, this company will grow well far into the future.
Now in the shorter and mid term, lots of turbulence issues. Thus the stock will remain depressed and will most likely stay there perhaps until mid yr or end of the year. But why worry if CIMB still producing billions in profit? Even if the profit is halved, it is still billions. The stock will go down, but i would accumulate more of it. I will not miss this wonderful opportunity again.
I am quite disappointed the merger was aborted, however knowing CIMB, sure will grab some other bank, some other time. Who know it could be HLB or even PB?

Stock

2015-01-22 15:12 | Report Abuse

Havefun, i thought bursa 1 lot is only 100 shares these days. I know from old days it is different...so you are holding 12000 shares, that's make you a pretty big shareholder for a retail investor

Stock

2015-01-22 15:10 | Report Abuse

I read all the reports, i think at this level, this stock is a good buy. So i am waiting for another entry point to accumulate. For the long term, CIMB is a great buy.

Stock

2015-01-22 11:27 | Report Abuse

Yalah...PE a bit high, but only worry if the company is in a steady state. As long as growing nicely, the future is good and means more money..

Stock

2015-01-22 11:17 | Report Abuse

Havefun, why buy two lots only? That's 200 shares only? Your brokerage fees could be high

Stock

2015-01-22 11:16 | Report Abuse

Cannot be weak ringgit foreign funds sells, because they will take currency loss of 10 to 15% easily. Even if they sell, i think they will keep it in ringgit and not convert to dollars, unless they are real bargains back in the usa for example.

Stock

2015-01-22 11:14 | Report Abuse

Reports say could be changing CEO or COO or something....but in anyway, this is good for the future

Stock

2015-01-19 17:22 | Report Abuse

Now i think i missed the second boat...oucchhh..lesson is..when see opportunity..don't wait..must grab!

Stock

2015-01-19 17:21 | Report Abuse

Just when the Rupiah will start to appreciate back...

Stock

2015-01-19 17:19 | Report Abuse

They issued a call warrant in Dec2014, just recently indeed. Expiring in 6 months time. They bet that the stock will not go above 0.77 or they will purchase the stock at 0.63 a piece and deliver it to the buyer. Now they are in a bind, already the warrant price is up more than 5% today.
For stock buyer, if the price is above 0.63, they will not lose all of their money, just some of it. But if goes above 0.77, they will stand to profit, no loss plus extra that is.

Stock

2015-01-16 15:45 | Report Abuse

The stock is still very much undervalued. If you have money, should buy some more. The only way for this stock is up.

Stock

2015-01-16 15:42 | Report Abuse

That's good to hear. That's what i am reading outside. Anyway the stock is up today, i guess must wait some more for entry opportunity

Stock

2015-01-16 15:41 | Report Abuse

Macquarie has bet placed on AAX head if not mistaken, not sure about Airasia. I am surprised they are giving a buy call this early, the warrants only expire in 6 months time

Stock

2015-01-16 15:39 | Report Abuse

Some charge, some may give wifi for free with ads.

Stock

2015-01-16 09:27 | Report Abuse

I plan to add more to my holdings, but i want to wait for a better opportunity. I am still checking on their overseas businesses, to see the prospects, my feeling is now QL is undervalued again

Stock

2015-01-16 09:07 | Report Abuse

This is in BBC:
Ryanair says that providing internet in the planes will increase drag on the aircrafts by 2% costing the airlines additional 20 mil Euro in extra fuel.
Therefore they will go for inflight wifi movies not streamed from the internet..and the movies will have built in adverts which the company can benefit from for providing the free wifi services.

I guess this boils down to design of the system. Anyone knows how AAX is planning to do this?

Stock

2015-01-15 09:03 | Report Abuse

Can't believe this is called off!
This shows that najib/nazir combi not controlling of malaysia as widely claimed. I thought can twist hand kind of thing, looks like i am wrong! This shows that money/profit must come first. This is good for the country if this is the thinking, for the long term.

Stock

2015-01-15 08:54 | Report Abuse

arwen, you still can buy at this price, still very cheap, buy slowly over a period of time

Stock

2015-01-14 10:48 | Report Abuse

Relax lah...i for one, already sold one small tranche of cimb stocks yesterday. Now we just wait. I still owns a large amount.

Stock

2015-01-14 10:39 | Report Abuse

annmix, you should sell some and take profit. Not sure about how you distribute your investments though. Care to comment?

Stock

2015-01-13 12:42 | Report Abuse

If not go through, in my lense, that is a bad news. Anyway, i will wait for more info.

Stock

2015-01-13 12:34 | Report Abuse

annmix, i hope you will be back with a new ID. Nobody will know who you are with a new ID. Come back and have more discussion and sharing with all of us here. If you are a shareholder, it will be good if you are here contributing.

Stock

2015-01-12 09:25 | Report Abuse

prudentinvestor, your insight is valuable.
Vin, i don't think it is ever a good idea to buy oil and gas stocks in the next few years, renewables will keep crushing them. I will not buy oil and gas stocks no matter what. If you go further downstream, specialty plastics and resin, maybe got better chance there.

Stock

2015-01-08 16:01 | Report Abuse

If the economy is very soft, even GST could be postponed by half year or so. Gov can simply say that the GST registration and the system etc not ready. We wishh...

Stock

2015-01-08 16:00 | Report Abuse

Yes it just begins, first reduction in petrol prices, next should be TNB, but they already insist not going to do it due to the exchange rate. Overall i think Malaysia economy will do just fine even with oil price this low, but the government will need to minimize expenses, GLC and other large companies and frequent travelers overseas should minimize buying external things. Even i am thinking of bringing money back in, but i am just a small fish, not a beep on the exchange rate.
Let see whether ringgit will hold ground. If does not, i think BNM will raise interest rate in no time.

Stock

2015-01-08 15:56 | Report Abuse

The stock price is not digesting all these info yet. I think the price may go down after this. Not sure of the black box when it will be found. Frankly, i smell something fishy-fishy going on ....
If all these issues are resolved, then we can jump in in my opinion

Stock

2015-01-07 17:19 | Report Abuse

I think CIMB can't do much. I think we should let it be anyway, this is Malaysia, the powers that be want these banks to merge, so be it. The share price means little at this stage. This is our great chance to accumulate tons of shares of a future megabank of malaysia. Later on, i think it will go up strongly in a new image.
I don't think foreign buyers are simply selling out, they will get so much loss. For example, if they own from 6, not it is 5.3, they will lose almost 20%. And to top it, the curency downed by say 10%. Their losses will be too big. If they sell the shares, i think they will keep it in ringgit for now, maybe buy back later.
I think BNM will raise interest rate very soon. BNM (and us) will not tolerate ringgit goes beyond 3.55.

Stock

2015-01-06 16:53 | Report Abuse

2.20 will be a good price. If never drop to this level, then don't buy lah...otherwise...go buy AAX, I also own it. Only buy when you are very sure, unless you in it for very long term, you can buy at almost any price you wish.

Stock

2015-01-06 16:37 | Report Abuse

Watch the crash report adam air lahh..same airport..same situation..in 2007

Stock

2015-01-06 16:36 | Report Abuse

If Airasia Indon really did skipped some things and can't fly on that time, sure TF will 'fire' somebody asap..