>Jon Choivo
If you have holding power for the next 3-5 years and the money to average down, sure, go ahead and buy some now. Otherwise, be on the sideline is what he meant I guess. My observation is that if it's really a steal now, MR YAP HOONG CHAI wouldn't be selling warrants so aggressively, or maybe he has some personal financial obligations, that we will never know.

I think both are not wrong, it's just the time frame being looked at are different

> DK66

Thanks for the input, it helps a lot:)
Looking for suitable RTO might lengthen the time span and thus increase the unpredictability of this arbitrage play..

>Jon Choivo
You've got a point there. This is just a little punting amid global uncertainties :)

Why PEB remains a good arbitrage play?
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/invertinvestment/172267.jsp

Hello Sslee,

Thank you for your reply. I've been thinking for some time before getting back to you.

Just to be clear, I'm not advocating people to sacrifice their time spent with their beloved ones. Those moments are priceless. One shouldn't say "I'm spending 1 hour with my kids, so I just lost RM100" or something along the line. No, that's not my intention at all.

What I hope to achieve in this post is to make people realise, and get a sense of how much their time is worth, so that they don't commit the same mistakes as I pointed out in the examples, e.g. going to three different malls to compare the price of the same product for two hours just to save a few bucks.


Love this --> "Life must find a balance, at time we need to slow down to smell the flowers, see the trees, feel the wind, hear the birds sing and hold hand with your love one. The 10 minute walks with your parent or the hour you wash your car with your kids or hours spend with you family widow shopping might turn out to be the last time you spend with them so treasure every moment. "


Posted by Sslee > Sep 16, 2018 09:09 AM | Report Abuse

Dear author invertInvestment,
Your argument on equating time in money equation is the concept of capitalist at its worst. Time is priceless no amount of any money can buy times. Nor can you buy health, love and life. Hence spend your times wisely.

Rich or poor is not solely measure by what you own but by what you have give/contribute and how people will remember you when you are gone.
What good it is for a man to gain the whole world but loss his soul, his friends, his family and his good name?

Life must find a balance, at time we need to slow down to smell the flowers, see the trees, feel the wind, hear the birds sing and hold hand with your love one. The 10 minute walks with your parent or the hour you wash your car with your kids or hours spend with you family widow shopping might turn out to be the last time you spend with them so treasure every moment.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TeZtII7maM
Last Words Spoken by Steve Jobs Before He Died

Thank you

Hello xgakuseix,

Compare the below two:

1. You wash your own car for an hour (and get tired for the next hour) because you think paying the car wash centre RM 15 is a lot.
2. You can consider washing car as a fitness training where it goes to health.Wealth is health.

These two are coming from different perspectives and they want to achieve different goals. The first guy wants to save money but he ends up losing more because he doesn't value his time. The second guy wants to treat washing car as exercise, so he opts for washing the car himself.

So my point is don't try to be extremely penny wise in our lives because doing so often times causes us to lose more (if we just take a step back and think about it, it's true). When we are always thinking how to save every cents we can, we are losing the time to think/execute the right things to make more money.


Posted by xgakuseix > Sep 16, 2018 02:36 AM | Report Abuse

Somehow your points are right but it cannot be considered as totally right because.

1.You can consider washing car as a fitness training where it goes to health.Wealth is health.
2.I agree with you about parking, but if you are living in town like Tokyo, maybe you will consider to park your car at cheaper place.I live in Tokyo, so roughly 1 hour, parking fee is about 25RM.

Basically its the way you think.I think its hard to say that your thinking is right.

Cheers.

As the saying goes, Rich people buy time, poor people sell time:)

Posted by probability > Sep 15, 2018 05:31 PM | Report Abuse

agree...thats why at certain point in time its worth to resign and go full time on stock market like Icon mentioned provided you have a little of what it takes and your capital is big enough.

its pointless cracking your head in the office...

Glad you like it.

Yes, Mispriced stocks are everyone's favourites except for TA traders who buy high and sell higher :)

Posted by calvintaneng > Sep 8, 2018 11:05 AM | Report Abuse

THUMBS UP!!!

BEST POST OF THE MONTH!!!!

Posted by calvintaneng > Sep 8, 2018 11:06 AM | Report Abuse

I like no. 2

2. It's futile to predict the macro economy, we're much better off spending time researching mispriced stocks.


MISPRICED STOCKS are my favourites!!!

Thanks LoiTC, appreciate it

Posted by LoiTC > Sep 4, 2018 07:32 PM | Report Abuse

May be you can some rebar price from this site.

http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-927.html

ming, let me quote from the latest quarter reports of the 4 steel makers.

Annjoo "The Group expects to increase its proportion of export sales amidst lacklustre near-term domestic demand."

Masteel: "In the ensuing months, the domestic steel market is expected to be well supplied resulting in steel prices remaining subdued"

Ssteel: "With the reviews on some of the infrastructure projects by the Government, demand is expected to slow down temporarily"

Lionind "The operating environment is anticipated to remain challenging in the next financial year in view of the prevailing market conditions."

Domestic demand is slowing down whilst getting well suppled, it's not hard to see where steel price is heading towards. By the way, do you mind share about this -> "we may follow the steel price to know demand/supply situation and which is able to trace weekly"?

ming, you see, the expectation of those mega infra works are cooked into previous high prices. That's why they are beaten down now. With the gradual increased production capacity, it's not likely to be sustainable for long IMO.

Posted by ming > Sep 2, 2018 12:53 AM | Report Abuse

Existing revenue mainly generate from project MRT2/LRT3 (infra part). All these still ongoing so nx few qr revenue can expect still sustainable.

Hsr not even start.. no much impact yet.

Btw, trx & bbcc also ongoing eh..

>>But my question is, what was the difference between Masteel and Lion Steel that the former got whacked so badly by the author, whereas the latter got praised to sky high as both companies’ main business is to provide long steel bars for buildings and houses, and infra-structure works. The question is even more relevant with the recent cancellation of some major infra-structure works.

KYY just made a sharp U-turn on steel counters within a few months' time even though the situation has become worse, maybe he sensed something?

Thanks for sharing, keep em coming!

Been there, done that. Let's learn together from our mistakes :) Cyclicals have to treated differently.

Posted by Mark Lee > Sep 1, 2018 03:46 PM | Report Abuse

I bought Annjoo few months ago at 3.xx(after selling Pmetal at 5.5) because low PE, high DY, solid fundamental, favourable prospect and uptrend chart. Usually I'd cut loss at certain threshold but I hold the belief tight and it has cost me dearly, I'd even averaged down. This article summed up my painful journey buying commodity related stocks. Parted with the stock at 2 for hard to copy counters.

Yup, Perstima is another great cyclical play.


Posted by Up_down > Sep 1, 2018 03:07 PM | Report Abuse

Perstima is another cyclical stock that is offering potential high dividend yield on riding higher earnings in next few quarters.

For sure, buying now at 1.93 is definitely better than buying at 4.06. You can buy now and hold for years, I guarantee you will make money. I'm not worried about the fundamentals of Annjoo, it has been through so many business cycles since 1946.

But why catch the falling knife now, why don't wait some more?


Posted by tecpower > Sep 1, 2018 01:39 PM | Report Abuse

When to hit the bottom is unpredictable. According to your data, it has oscillated between 0.63-4.06. The average of the max and min values is 2.345. The current price is 1.93. As it is the below the average, I think it is not disappointing to buy the stock at the current price. If you can hold it for some time, it is likely that you will get profit.

good will hunting?
lol, I'm probably too carried away.

Love this

Posted by probability > Aug 25, 2018 07:59 PM | Report Abuse

everything is about Edge, Alex....

ROIC is about competitive edge..

getting the most beautiful chick is about your edge

getting higher salary in company is about your competency edge

even in animal kingdom..the strongest (having an edge) is to survive..

those who write TheEDGE also have an edge...

the ability for unmasking risk is about your edge against others

To me, high risk in investment comes from too-high prices due to optimism and high expectation. How much risk is determined by odds offered and potential rewards, i.e. Expected Value.
A good company can be risky if you pay more than it's worth.
A bad company can be less risky if you pay less than it's worth.


Posted by probability > Aug 25, 2018 07:32 PM | Report Abuse

what i think market perceive as high risk..is the odds of happening...the lower the odds the higher the risk for the same bet size

example if a company started having potential to get awarded with big contract ensuring high revenue stream for a long period...

and due to this its selling at a rather high price (relative to being not awarded)...

the risk is basically the odds of not getting the contract

>calvintaneng

>>>SO AS A GENERAL RULE BUY WHEN INSIDERS ARE BUYING QUIETLY WHEN THERE IS PESSIMISM. AND MUST CERTAINLY SELL WHEN SOME REAL OR PERCIEVED GOOD NEWS ARE OUT AND INSIDERS ARE SELLING IN EUPHORIA.

Agree, insiders' moves is one of the important aspects.

> Jon Choivo
I used to think a lot like you, the rest of world can consume as much as they like (as most of them only care about their shopping carts in Taobao and Amazon) while I buy all sorts of value appreciating assets.
Now I would be very happy if there’s even one person who is willing to take action after reading this article.

> Ayoyo
Thanks for sharing.
All in, I believe it’s about finding the sweet point, you don’t want to live in a cage, neither do you want to max out your credit. Nobody should sacrifice his/her health excessively for wealth, if you have to do so, you have bigger problem than savings.

>Ricky Yeo
"Deep value relies on a small amount of stocks in the portfolio to cover the losses for most of the stocks"
Thanks for comment, would like to know more about this, e.g. where can I get more information about this?

"The reason why it works is because it doesn't work all the time."
Food for thought, erm...

>qqq3
The experiment is done with one year period, hence start date and end date are defined right at the beginning. And regarding your comment "stock market got phases...at each phase , best strategy is different.", I sense something cyclical? :)

>VenFx
I would like to know how that would turn out to be. Unfortunately I don't tool to do that kind of backtesting

>Jeffbkt
I agree there are numerous ratios we could and should use to make an investment decision, and we should always set a target price before putting in money (otherwise how would we know it's underpriced right?).

But for the sake of this quantitative approach, it's buying 10% of all the stocks (in S&P 500 or Rusell 2000 or whatever you name it) with the lowest AM, hold them for one year, and then sell them, and redo the same thing (find stocks with the lowest AM again) for the next year.
Cheers