JrWarren

JrWarren | Joined since 2023-06-16

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Stock

3 days ago | Report Abuse

glad UP surpassed RM25, so will it drop after ex-date?
Hardly, because the fund manager's dividend expectation still there and the price movement will reflect their expectation:

1. What is the cash reserve after dividend payout ? If got extra cash means extraordinary dividend.
2. Are the production & CPO price same / better than 2023? Yes for 1Q2024, if 2Q & 3Q result suggest better production, CPO price maintain at 4k, fund manager will arbitrage & push up UP share price.

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4 days ago | Report Abuse

If Microsoft is making a video specially for Malaysia, the international investors are focusing on Malaysia too.
More opportunity / travel to Malaysia? We will find out in future.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcSJ4tRHq-Q

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

Worry about capital gain in CAPITALA and no dividend ?
Why dont buy loan stock to enjoy 8% interest and convert loan stock into mother stock once CAPITALA share price go beyond exercise price of RM0.75?

After listing in USA, you also can buy their USA shares to enjoy royalty income payout first while waiting share price go up.

Cashflow (dividend, interest, royalty) is a form of motivation to keep me hold this share (asset).

Work smart and not wait hard.

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

fking haze from Sumatra make my nose itchy, hope more rain coming in mid April to deal with the fire & Haze.
Most important is providing water source for the palm oil in this El Nino time.

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2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

CPO priced at RM4476 and fund manager tekan the share price.
Any reason not to acquire UP during salary day ?
I foresee the next round price up will be near dividend ex-date or after AGM.

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1 month ago | Report Abuse

When those retail investors are panic selling, institution investors are buying.
CTOS main customer is institutional creditor , not retail individual buyer.

Most American banks use the score provided by central scoring central.
However, Malaysia bankers seldom use CTOS score as benchmark because it has no reference value.
Malaysia Bank uses CCRIS as main reference (as long as no overdue and installment is ZERO delay, you are good), CTOS is secondary system to find out bankruptcy case and any due with other agencies (ie. hutang with Maxis , Astro , Telekom and so-on).

Who is selling and collecting now?
Retail investors are selling, institutional investor are grabbing cheap stock, day traders are goreng for quick profit. The ending will be price go back to RM1.45-RM1.50 and investor still enjoying the same / higher dividend.

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1 month ago | Report Abuse

Just got my paycheck and bought some.
Correction is always there, not surprise.
My 6% dividend yield theory workout the estimated price is around RM25 (based on RM1.50 dividend payout and exclude RM0.40 Extraordinary Dividend). Because the Extraordinary Dividend is only pay occasionally.

News & Blogs

1 month ago | Report Abuse

5 out of 9 directors surname Koo.
After disqualified a director, Right to appoint director is with the current management, I foresee another Koo being appointed.
A coup to cast out Koo family in management is impossible because they have substantial shareholding.
Johor is the main development area now, to maximize profit, KSL will continue to use internal cash to fund the project. Until exhaust of internal fund, then only go for bank borrowing, no chance for dividend payout at all.

As suggested that cast out the directors is step one. Then need to advertise in The Edge & other media platform to accumulate the minority shareholding % to start an EGM and revise the director remuneration structure, from PURE CASH SALARY & ALLOWANCE to SHARE option as salary.

The Koo family has been taking advantage on KSL as in-house ATM and cashed into their own pocket. When the traditional CASH SALARY is abandon, and STOCK option is their salary, they will do anything to push up the share price / paying dividend as their salary is now correlated to the stock ownership.

Will this method success ? No, because Asian always mind their own business, unlike western investors which know how to protect their own right (How often u see Malaysian go into strike 【罢工】). At the end, Malaysian will opt for easier solution, Let go and buy other shares.

After all, I dont see any cash will leak to the 3rd party investor other than Koo family in the following situation:
1. NTA per share RM3.65, super light debt, impossible to bankrupt, so dont expect any asset sell down and get the cash.
2. Dividend : as mention above, jangan mimpi.
3. Capital Gain : KSL is like bitcoin now, you expect other to pay higher price to buy ur share, so u can get capital gain. However, w/o the motivation of dividend, will other pay higher price to get KSL share ? Do they expect to buy KSL share at RM1.50, wait the company bankrupt and get the RM3.65 from asset disposal return ?

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1 month ago | Report Abuse

apply 6% dividend rule and u will find out the target price

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1 month ago | Report Abuse

Creditors and lessors will agree to transfer the debts from AA to AAX via the ownership buyout because their debt contracts are secured by the aircraft, new borrower of AAX is totally fine as long as the company make money and continue to service the debt.

CAP A debt will not be transfer to AAX because the MRO, santan, app service are not part of AA business.

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1 month ago | Report Abuse

Quote: @Sslee - Note: As at 31/9/2023 capA shareholders' equity is negative RM 8,427,155,000

31/9/2023 , Tony go to moon order nasi lemak.

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1 month ago | Report Abuse

To be precise, USA company holding all IP and brand name of AA (intangible asset).
Tony selling AA every year 1% annual revenue to USA company, in exchange for USD1.15B for business expansion in ASEAN.
As a shareholder of USA company, I get pay 1% AA annual revenue as ROYALTY payment. Bear in mind that air traffic and revenue of CAP A are increasing now and future (with the business expansion plan).
Just like Apple using Nokia patented design, Apply needs to pay Nokia royalty.
The method of valuation calculation is stated in the bursa pdf, have urself read the document for further understanding.

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1 month ago | Report Abuse

amazing result, 535m cash, dividend ????
Beli tanah....

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1 month ago | Report Abuse

Conclusion:
1. CAP A reduce the accumulated loss by RM4.5b and USD150m loan transferred to USA company.
2. Existing CAP A shareholder is likely getting USA company new share, I guess the ratio is 4 existing CAP A share to 1 new USA share. USA company not a CAP A subsidiary as the shareholding is less than 51%, so the above 4.5b loss will not show at CAP A balance sheet.
3. 1% of CAP A revenue will go to USA company, roughly RM130M (or USD27.1M) cash confirm masuk pocket based on 2023 estimated revenue of RM13b.
4. Since CAP A cant pay dividend now due to negative networth, I think this is the alternative way to reward shareholder with cash.
5. Learn how AA makes money: https://i.imgur.com/8K1weV2.png
6. CAP A changing operating strategy and wanna transform Malaysia / Thailand into second Dubai (AKA ASEAN international transfer hub), the strategy will increase the group revenue in near future.
7. Flight traffic is expected to increase by a lot in ASEAN region due to China de-risking policy. AA aggressive flight expansion to cater regional demand increased and keeping the advantage of economic of scale operation.
8. B40 & M40 remain as CAP A target customer, so AFFORDABLE ticket is important

Stock

1 month ago | Report Abuse

Well, Tony is going to NASDAQ now =)
Interesting to find out the accounting practice to reduce the accumulated loss by RM4.5 b

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3426301

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1 month ago | Report Abuse

@Sardin, I think u know which company I am talking abt =P
It ranked no. 2 for a reason, but the hidden potential is tremendous once the other estates enter into harvesting period.
I got two more no. 2 companies in other industry which not ready to share, but the no. 3 such as time and rce are always a good buy and they outperformed my portfolio in 2023.

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1 month ago | Report Abuse

Everyone has their own 2nd best, thus for me , this company must share most of UP characteristics, ie. 80% div payout policy, consistent div payout every year and debt free. So far only 1 palm oil company that owned by Sabah gov meet this criteria.

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1 month ago | Report Abuse

Strong cash position and the CPO extraction yield is double as compared to Malaysia industry average.

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1 month ago | Report Abuse

Other than India got alot GREEN, I found alot RED (especially KK to Taipei) ..... and alot Yellow lar .....

https://newsroom.airasia.com/news/airasia-adds-1-mil-promo-seats-due-to-increasing-demand

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1 month ago | Report Abuse

Simply said: Higher jetfuel cost, higher load factor to break even.
So what is the breakeven load factor % for the given fuel cost ?
U pandai pandai research la, if u able to modulate this formula, I am sure u already on-board and judge this stock is under/over value.

Stock

1 month ago | Report Abuse

I make a picture for lazy guys who lazy to do research, keep on bashing and dont even bother to understand AA business model.

https://i.imgur.com/8K1weV2.png

AA business model is like a Bell Curve, why there is a free seat? Why u cant secure a cheap ticket ? When you are paying normal ticket price?
This picture covers all.

Overall, AA fare (budget airline) is still cheaper as compared to service airline such as Singapore Airline, JAL, ANA and others.

Stock

2024-01-02 10:28 | Report Abuse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KA7QXc11k_4

Tony: When we promised to to bring back all 2,000 redundant crews, we did.
Talk is cheap.
In fact that we did it, with no government support, out of the worst human crisis in our generation, probably the last 3 generations, was a proud day for me.

Stock

2023-12-22 18:37 | Report Abuse

I suppose the regularization plan is ready, but rather than going through the troublesome regularization and corporate exercise which incurred tremendous management cost, seem like Capital A has opted the simple second way out, which is positive profit on next 2 quarter and positive networth. Not sure how Tony going to play his magic on the positive networth, but he is likely apply the same AAX method to apply for PN17 upliftment after 2 quarter positive profit and positive networth.

Stock

2023-12-07 18:25 | Report Abuse

Status quo, No privatization, No dividend, No buy back.
Khoos' will continue to pay them self fat cheque, while rolling all the cash and reinvest.
Khoos' dont give a damn.

Stock

2023-11-30 19:23 | Report Abuse

How come GE and Airbus approved to restructure the lease agreement?
Why Bangkok Bank and Citibank approved debt financing of USD179 M to Cap. A ?
Why need to issue revenue bond of USD200 M at the international credit market for the expansion of the airline?
Why want to go for equity raising including potential IPO issuance for AirAsia Philippines in the near term and further equity raising from AirAsia Indonesia?

Haiya, the management must be drunk and high ....

@Mabel, shall we go for a drink to get high and drunk ?

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2023-11-30 18:08 | Report Abuse

Bought again when price is low, but this surprise price surged is another level and totally unexpected.

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2023-11-30 18:05 | Report Abuse

Ya, very disappointed result.
However, I still receive my interest payment on every quarter and lease payments are settled on time.
How come ?

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2023-11-30 14:11 | Report Abuse

@Sardin, Ipoh 2 days 1 night makan trip. That is what I did in 2017.

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2023-11-29 18:00 | Report Abuse

Cash is King, no cash no talk, we Malaysian love cash... Without dividend, the share is like BITCOIN, always expecting the next Lulu offering higher price for capital gain. At the end, the boss at behind counting $$, investor cries without tear.

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2023-11-29 16:30 | Report Abuse

well, EPF jumped to Takaful for obvious reason, and once Takaful declared dividend, EPF will jump back here again for Q4 dividend unless they wanna skip the lucrative dividend from this counter.

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2023-11-28 18:46 | Report Abuse

Finally BIMB business back to usual with lower NPL ratio and better revenue.
6% dividend this year.

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2023-11-28 09:54 | Report Abuse

cause I learned the lesson last year, after Ex-date, share price keep on going up in Dec until RM1 dividend declaration T.T

Since EPF make the price so attractive and the probability of Q4 result is great, I might as well get the 80 sen plus the Feb 2024 dividend and capital gain if possible.

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2023-11-28 08:18 | Report Abuse

Well, I will buy in batches until 29/11 to lower average price, plus the harvesting result is gradually improving, I am expecting a rebound unless EPF want this counter becomes undervalue.

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2023-11-27 18:02 | Report Abuse

This movement remind me of last year Nov dividend announcement as well, price just went down slowly, and after the ex-date, it rebounded in Dec ....

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2023-11-26 20:02 | Report Abuse

India, China, Jordan, Turkey visa free to Malaysia.

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2023-11-24 14:49 | Report Abuse

@Sardin - Conclusion quoted from the report "Based on the current palm oil prices and ***the Company’s efforts on securing the budgeted crop in the final quarter of 2023***, the Board of Directors expects that the results for the year will be very SATISFACTORY"

Therefore, Q4 output is worry free.

Finger cross.

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2023-11-24 09:14 | Report Abuse

@Sardin, it's possible because when UP selling forward contract, the CPO price is locked TODAY and deliver in next 3 / 6 /9 month. Therefore, they can project their profit & cash flow with 90% accuracy. Hence, the sufficient cashflow and the accuracy of cashflow projection gave the management confidence to declare high dividend. In the past, I never see the quarterly report expressed the results for the year will be very SATISFACTORY.

When Ukraine war started, CPO price at record high (RM 5-7k), but UP quarterly report still showing average selling price of RM4k+ , at that time I am sure these forward contract were negotiated with buyer so UP & buyer both benefit from the reasonable cost vs revenue. Maybe most of them is long term customer.

As compared to the company selling at spot price, future CPO price movement is unpredictable and hence the profit & cash flow also unpredictable. I owned Inno and UP, last year Inno declared very good dividend, but this year so so; on the opposite UP last year dividend was fine but this year dividend is expected to be Great.

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2023-11-23 13:00 | Report Abuse

Based on my past experience, I learned that 6% of dividend yield is the sweet spot for most investor (similar to EPF return except u cant take out EPF money) and the share price always self-correct to match this 6% benchmark. UTDPLT also showed similar correction in 2015 (u received FY2014 dividend in 2015) which averaged priced at RM26. RM1.65 divided RM26 = 6.3%. U can find similar 6% theory on Maybank, LPI, and other dividend stock for reference purpose.

Using the same 6% theory and assume current Q3 EPS of RM1.22 distributed as dividend, you will get RM20.33 as expected future share price. I cant tell Q4 result, so I will take RM20.33 as reference price.

Disclaimer: Above comment is for purely for reference and not a buy-sell advice. You are responsible for your own research and your buy-sell decision.

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2023-11-23 09:33 | Report Abuse

TO further enhance investor determination:
a) The last mid-term lucrative dividend distribution was 25/08/2014, Interim Extraordinary Special Dividend of 75 sen. At the end of FY2014, total of RM1.65 dividend declared. After 9 years, same type of dividend is back.
b) In 3Q2023 report - Prospect and Outlook, the company concluded with the following statement "Based on the current palm oil prices and the Company’s efforts on securing the budgeted crop in the final quarter of 2023, the Board of Directors expects that the results for the year will be very SATISFACTORY."

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2023-11-22 15:19 | Report Abuse

I am happy to take RM2 as well, but the fact suggested otherwise based on the following:

1) Despite RM400M+ cash in hand, KSL going to reinvest it (for land purchase / development) rather than privatization.
2) Privatization required huge fund from Khoo family and they cant afford the OPPORTUNITY COST.
3) What is the opportunity cost?
KSL has massive land bank in Johor, so they likely benefit from SG-JB RTS in property development
Malaysia Green Energy transition - AKA sell green electric to SG, more land required in Johor to build solar farm,
Few big conventional projects just completed and start generate cashflow, these monies can be used for reinvest again.

I bet everything will be status quo, no privatization (despite privatization is viable and best option), no dividend ( as mentioned above cash ALWAYS reinvested). I hope KSL proof me wrong by declaring dividend in FY2023.

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2023-11-22 08:57 | Report Abuse

Reply for some questions asked:

1) Price laggard: I will explain based on 2 factors.
One - NO dividend, so no buyer = no demand.
Two - Extreme capital gain company is not the main stream in Malaysia, Malaysian prefer CASH is KING, so dividend company is likely to get better share valuation in Malaysia.

2) Privatization price too low and trigger oppression of minority - Boustead Bhd's Net Asset per share is RM1.60, but average share price is RM0.60- 0.65 . LTAT offers to privatize at RM0.855. The market happily accepted the offers.

NOW look at KSL, share price recently pump up to RM1.20 (average), KSL offers to buy RM2.00 (assumption). Retail shareholders instantly got RM0.80 gain (67% gain based on purchase price RM1.20), so the privatization result is obvious right? KSL share price has been closing in SEN since 2018.

But on majority shareholder view, KSL has RM3.44 NTA per share, privatization price is RM2.00 (assumption), they still earn RM1.44 (or 72% gain) overall.

Despite KSL is severely undervalue for now, privatization will immediate give retail investor 67% gain and majority shareholder 72% gain (assume buyout price RM2.00). There are a lot undervalue company opted for privatization when share price is undervalue, then re-list again in bursa. Example: Maxis.

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2023-11-16 16:54 | Report Abuse

I hope KSL proof me wrong using their Q4 2024 result announcement / any dividend declaration for FY2024.

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2023-11-16 10:31 | Report Abuse

I used to own this counter, but given up after few years of holding due to the BUSINESS MODEL practice by the company.

1. The business model focus on using internal fund to develop the project, Minimum borrowing to reduce Financing Cost.

2. Any Profit will be reinvested back to the business itself to roll the snowball bigger and bigger, ie. use earned monies to buy more land, then develop, and repeat the same.

3. A lot net operating cashflow from sales, but go back to business at the end. Management was rewarded handsomely via director salaries & remuneration but minority shareholders got nothing. Huge shares owned by management / family circle, so AGM confirmed can pass the director salaries resolution.

4. The majority shareholders don't even care the share price high / low at the end. Because if they want to privatize the entire company, they can pay for cheap price (let say RM1.2) vs the net total asset price (RM3.44). This is a deep discount, but minority shareholders can't say NO because majority shareholders can trigger Mandatory Privatization if they want (just like recently Sime Darby acquire UMW then UMW become Sdn Bhd).

5. In conclusion, good business model for long term, business grow focused, but share price always at low side due to non-reward practice on no buy back treasury share , no dividend , no capital gain.

6. I foresee this business model will continue AKA buy land, develop property, sales, then repeat. The company has 1.1b worth of land bank, 683m properties for sales, 424m CASH, but at the end this CASH will be used to pay any land acquisition to increase the land bank, because land value keep on appreciate and new property price also continue increase, what investment can have double return from land and property. One stone kills 2 birds.

7. Downside risk: no dividend, no capital gain, KSL privatized at super discount price and investors force to accept the price.
Upside return: KSL start declare dividend, and share price go up.
Current market momentum: Better sales & cash inflow, share price go up due to positive financial result, dividend expectation is strong.

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2023-10-03 19:06 | Report Abuse

When the company in PN17 and still able to convince risk-conscious FI to lend them USD, I really wonder how Tony sell the story =)

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2023-09-22 20:55 | Report Abuse

1. You are rude when you said I'm clueless to comment. In opposite, how do you feel if I tell you to STFU when you ask "why UTDPLT price up". Use better word to reply not a HOSTILE sentence.

2. Nothing wrong with EPF taking profit and buy at low price later, especially the share at a new high price. In fact, EPF keep selling since Mar' 23. Some investor / fund manager will refer EPF action as one of the indicator to study EPF rational.

3. It's a new high, but partially driven by foreign fund.

4. Your estimation price of RM21 is my interest as well, then I will enjoy 70% capital gain after 7 years of holding.

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2023-09-22 14:03 | Report Abuse

@KClow
How sarcastic when you ask around why UTDPLT price up few days ago, then assume that I am clueless.
Feel free to share your opinion to proof you are not clueless?
I also hold this counter, thus a rationale discussion is welcome.

My finding is related to foreign fund and same incident has had happened at past.
Huge foreign fund flowed into Bursa since 13/9 until 21/9. Look at market participation data and you will know what I am talking about.
Huge jump from RM16 to RM17.4 without any CPO price support is impossible. Coincidentally, this huge jump also happened on 13/9 - 18/9 . Therefore, price hike partially driven by foreign fund.

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2023-09-21 17:31 | Report Abuse

When EPF unload, means EPF is taking profit and wait for a low bottom to buy back. From July till Sept, EPF total shareholdings dropped 1%.

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2023-09-21 10:45 | Report Abuse

Ku Khoo stock has attractive fundamental and lower PE, but Ku Khoo pays themself big fat check and left minority shareholders in limbo. 80% shares are holding by own people, if Ku Khoo argue share price not reflect true business value as excuse to privatization KSL, then offer cheap discount price over the NTA, minority shareholders have no choice but to swallow this pill.

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2023-09-17 10:57 | Report Abuse

Lets think from Bursa / SC side on the rational and differences for Scomi case:

1. PN17 extension is approved because aviation is the most affected industry throughout the entire pandemic. Now the aviation business in the world showed significant business improvement, hence Bursa opined that extension no longer required and AA has to start building up its business again or dabao.

2. A plan is submitted for "consultation", not sure included Bursa or not, but it's the only chance and to make this right, I suppose submission of the "consultation" plan is including Bursa and after correction, then the final version is submitted for approval.

3. Tony also want to quit from PN 17 soonest possible , so AA can move forward for better business. In the CNA video, timeline is given by Tony.