My tp is RM31.67 previously, but after the bonus issue announcement, I share the same tp opinion with KClow at RM35. UP has RM600m cash now and RM778m order book, enough for RM1.90 dividend. Dividend replaced with bonus issue reason is the following quote from financial report:

[Amidst the global uncertainties and challenges, management remains focused on its operations and is taking various means to improve yields, productivity and to reduce costs. This aim is pursued through ongoing mechanization initiatives and through the replanting of older, less productive oil palm stands with our latest in-house high yielding planting materials. These efforts are vital for our ability to remain competitive and profitable as increasing labour costs, energy, chemicals and building materials are expected to exert upward pressure on our cost base.]

Human word : Guys, UP needs money to replant the tree, modernize our operation efficiency to earn more money. So I need cash now and I give you 1 free share la, I will work my @ss off to earn more and grow ur new bonus share value.

2020 bonus issue very obvious is for market liquidity purpose because the price was half (circa RM13) after the bonus issue.
2024 bonus issue only 1 : 2, after issuance is about RM 20, very obvious not for liquidity purpose.

2020 UP priced at RM24 then bonus issue, It takes 4 years for UP to achieve same RM24 (14/3/2024) and bonus issue again. Ur capital gain double every 4 years or CAGR 20% p.a..

Of course I hope got some expansion via buying new land to cultivate.

Mr. Lee, same question was asked on both CAP A & RCUID EMG and he mentioned will converted. However, their RCUIDS are parked under a company, to maximize the profit, they likely convert the loan stock to share follow the RCUIDs repayment schedule, AKA convert 25% RCUIDS annually starting from 4Q 2025 to 2028. After all, they can make full 8% interest and capital gain at the given future time.

I know you dont like this company and Tony's magic trick, but he really making the cake bigger now. Today you may also read the edge news that Cabinet has approved a budget to upgrade Sabah international airport. This can not be done without direct international flight to Sabah and AA is the major flight that brought in foreign tourist to Sabah. Asian Dubai is a dream for now but it can become fact if everything done right.

Post-restructure Cap A may not have aviation business, that why the main core business has shifted to MRO business and still expanding.

Trump is an oil guys and he will try to boost up US oil production for $$, so the EU can switch their oil & gas purchase from Russia to US. To get back the market share, OPEC+ will have no choice to ramp up the production. The price that human going to pay is hotter day in the next 4 years, more disaster and more food, oil & clean water shortage.

My wild guess is RM1.20 in Nov and RM0.80 or more in next Feb.

Vietnam : Come on Tony boy, come here repair aircraft =)

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/11/12/capital-a039s-mro-arm-receives-vietnam039s-civil-aviation-authority039s-certification

The 14 new MRO hangars started to operate in September (existing already got 8 old hangars) and fully booked till 3Q 2025, latest revenue from MRO on full capacity will be available on 4Q financial report, I think MRO will double it's revenue.

Cap A will become a repairman that repair aircraft =)

Expect more payout in Q3 due to the 2% dividend tax.
My target is RM31.67 based on the 6% yield payout, using RM1.90 - 2023 dividend as benchmark.
If they pay more, price target will be higher.

I am surprise Kamarudin bought loan stock, but after the announcement, I think the main purpose is not about how many loan stock he is buying but the amount of loan stock he still HOLDING and not convert. Hence, it boost up the market confidence.

Why UP and other palm oil company are in favor now?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1W4GtYDKiMI

Someone using PE ratio to derive the TP, which is reasonable compare to the current business segment.

Nice quote "No one can create money out of thin air. "
As I also done my part to urge Cap A release the non-aviation segment revenue & profit during EGM, which they did in latest announcement of regularization plan. Overall consolidation revenue and profit of 2023 are 2.2b and 100m respectively. EPS and share price are up to MR. market now. Q4 financial result will be a critical benchmark because the MRO new hangars are operated in full capacity and fully booked until end of 2025. Rest assured that I no longer need to worry about load factor of AA & AAX as long as their planes still flying, the planes need to come back Cap A's hangar for maintenance.

Just found out that the document also contain all non-aviation segment revenue and profit for 2023, to make ur life and homework easier.

this entire drama is a repeated AAX corporate exercise, show 2 quarter making profit, capital reduction then share consolidation, finally apply to quit PN17. If you able to see the same pattern similar to AAX and done the excel homework, you are likely continue to hold both companies shares because you have find out the share dilution on AAX and the EPS (after corporate exercise) of AAX. Amount of AAX new shares to be issued, 2023 & 2024 quarterly financials, all these numbers are readily available. There are hardworking people and lazy people, no homework = unlimited uncertainty.

In addition, the post- exercise pro-forma balance sheet also indicated in the pdf file.
The uncertainty is greater prior to the EGM of both companies, but now is much clearer to investors, hence share price rebound from 7x sen to 9x sen. Most information has released to investor hand and those who interpreted correctly will see opportunity.

Show the proof or any black and white, otherwise Stop spreading rumor and misled the people.
Pledging shares and RCUIDS of majority shareholder required disclosure in financial statement.

Example:
HSBC Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd
Pledged Securities Account - Credit Suisse AG, Singapore For Tune Air Sdn. Bhd

Share without pledge, disclosure example:
Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd
Kenanga Investors Berhad For Sky Accord Sdn. Bhd.

Redemption = installment payment, 25% of outstanding rcuids will be repaid annually starting from 2025 to 2028.

In conclusion, Capital A no short change the RCUIDS holder.
RCUIDS holder still enjoy 8% interest.

Use 1 lot (100 unit) as example for illustration:

Face value 75 sen x 100 unit = RM75 (per lot)
share conversion Before: 75 sen x 100 unit = RM75 (per lot)
share conversion After : 26 sen x 288 units = RM 74.88 (per lot)

Your RCUIDS still worth RM75 per lot, at the time of repayment of RCUIDS , Capital A will pay you back RM75 per lot of RCUIDS.
This is in line with the borrowing terms because we lend RM75 per lot RCUIDS to Capital A.
Tony also compensate RCUIDS with more Capital A shares to 288 units after conversion, so you still get back the same value of shares after conversion.

@mable - I am looking forward for his new book to find out the dirty secret and all the crap & sh!t he encountered from local institution, Like tony said, it is a devastating situation during Covid and everyone escape from him. Make me remind a particular friend trying to find you to borrow money or join their Amway team.

RCUIDS still worth 75 sen face value after corporate exercise, but the conversion rate to mother share has changed:
before : exercise price 75 sen for 100 unit of shares
after: exercise price 26 sen for 288 unit of shares

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2Jp9bfxAdI

Every number has different meaning to different people.
Banker studies the number for risk management and repayment ability.
Accountant studies the number for business advisory.
Entrepreneur studies the number for business expansion.
Investor studies the number to capture best return at certain risk level.
Ordinary people studies the number to find out this is a money game.
Your cognitive determine how big the picture you see and paint.

FY2023, total revenue on non-aviation segment was RM1.085b , EBITDA was RM215m.
First half of 2024, total revenue on non-aviation segment (Jan to June) was RM508m , EBITDA was RM103m.
Latest borrowing (current & non-current) is RM1.7b , RM600m is RCUID which likely convert to mother share once Cap A share price move up.
Net borrowing RM1.1b, payable via installment from 2025 to 2030.
Tony target to complete the AA disposal in Dec, so that the Cap A annual report, will show Cap A shareholder the actual earning of non-aviation segments as of 31/12/2024.

Recently operation strategy has changed from 1 aircraft 1 route, to flexible aircraft model for 1 route.
It means if the route has too little booking due to seasonal demand, AA can change small aircraft for this route and utilize big aircraft for strong demand route. Example: CNY, SG to KL is using 9-seat aircraft, ordinary time using using 4-seat aircraft.
To achieve economic of scale and able to use different aircraft combination to service the busy / non-busy route due to seasonal demand, AAX will agree to merge with AA.
This new operation strategy got 3 advantage:
1. Save fuel = save cost
2. boost up the load factor because smaller plane
3. reach out more route to create demand, without spending huge cost given that A321neo deployment.

Got 1 blind spot keep misled in i3, Cap A got huge debt, how to repay. Per independent director, the lease contract range from 12 to 18 years, so dont ask how to service billions ringgit lease liabilities because it show you ignorant on accounting. Go to cashflow statement "cashflow from financing" to study the detail.

Yes, you should calculate properly, cap a financial statement separate aviation segment and non-aviation segment for a reason.
If you hardworking and done your excel homework, you already know the following:

1. Estimated revenue of AAX plus Cap A aviation segment.
2. AAX total shares after post restructure, new shares (issued to cap a), existing aax share and private placement new share.
3. estimation on EPS, debt service ability, pre-sales ticket order and chances on AAX dividend.

This homework probably takes 5-6 hours to complete, but when you look at the excel sheet, compare to the investment house target price, net asset value and PE ratio, you will know either is undervalue or overvalue for both AAX and Cap A after restructure.

99.9% support the resolutions in RCUID EGM.

RCUIDS carry 8% interest, I will wait till next year before repayment starts, then convert 25% every year
this will maximize my interest return and capital gain (mother share) as well.

First round meeting ended, 99% shareholders supported all the resolutions.
Afternoon will be RCUID meeting.

Mr Lee, have your questions being answered?

Finally start moving, nice dividend stock since 2021.

I dont want to conduct accounting class again, 18.39% shareholding is not consider as subsidiary, so u go think what come next in Cap A book record.

Of course I am expecting dividend from Cap A , NOT AAX ... Because the non-aviation segment has sufficient profit for dividend and debt repayment (current & non-current), just see Cap A management want to declare the dividend or not.

Even now I still enjoy cash flow from CAP A, because I do my homework and able to close the information gap not available direcrly to most retail investor. However, this information actually published in fragment inside the quarterly & annual report.

3Q production soso, hopefully the CPO price can make up the shortfall and sustain last year profit.

Company is a single separate entity.
AFTER AFTER AFTER corp exercise, outstanding debt is about RM1.7b (600m is Bursa loan stock). The debts are repaid via installment over the years.
So the dividend payout is normal if Cap A choose to do so.
There are tons of public listed companies with bank borrowing and other form of debt, yet still paying dividend at lower payout ratio from 20% ~ 50%. If no debt (ie UP and Inno), the payout ratio may up to 80%. Certain borrowing may required creditor approval prior to dividend declaration, but such reject of payout is not absolute.
When you think for yourself, you fail to see the opposite.
Creditor: I want earn interest and also make sure AA pay on time. However, please DONT DONT DONT do prepayment because I want earn the interest for longer period, else my annual budget on loan asset and interest income will have shortfall.
Investor: Cap A earn alot money but all goes to pay debt adi, sure no dividend for next few years, lets dump this counter and buy other counter.

In 2025, i3 - AAX will become more active once you all go there.

I agree with Lee, lets grab a cola and popcorn to watch the show from TonyWood, quality as good as Hollywood and Bollywood.

First, cashflow statement dispels your claim on cant afford to pay debt.
Second, new plane delivery is financed via leasing, debt (current & non-current) increase is normal.
Third, airbus and leasing companies are not dump to keep supply planes to AA. Even MyAirline's aircraft are leased by AA.
4th, Why focus on skirt when u can see the entire set of bikini ?

Anyway, unless Cap A quarterly and audited report's figures are fake , which considered a crime / fraud.
Else I will take the cashflow and profit figure as good.
Non airline business revenue and EBITDA are available in these reports, I believe you all can verify yourself.

This news is exactly what Tony want all retail investors to focus on aviation and forget the rest: Hey, AAX now getting bigger and more profit, lets play together =)

I gave my assumption & calculation on non-aviation segment 1 week ago, feel free to check out why I expect dividend from Cap A after corporate exercise.

Paint the picture bigger:

1. Cap A shareholders get AAX shares as compensation.
2. After corp exercise, CAP A share price will drop for sure, but u have received new shares from AAX.
3. MRO, Santan and laggard Big Pay remain with Cap A, have u actually calculated the profit for non-aviation segment ? I mean actually do an excel and dive deep.
4. New hangars are in operation, royalty fee coming, new plane coming & etc.
5. An ambitious vision by MAHB and Tony is currently in progress, thus the top management want to privatize MAHB, because this plan will bring millions profit to MAHB. Can u see this far far vision?

Tony: Bro, where is my A330neo, I have been waiting for 10 years la = =
Airbus: Bang, kasih chance la, now you are first at the waiting list, sure got plane for you.
Tony: My business like hot chick la, cepat cepat
ANA JAL Delta MAS and others : Pls Airbus, can we cut queue ? I got hot chick demand but not enough aircraft la ... Boeing now on strike and 737 dreamliner fly to Holand adi ...
Airbus : Cant la, Tony still waiting the other 50 planes, order book till 2027 baru ada slot baru ....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ko2RyVtY8pU

Join Tony tonight and see what he going to say.

https://www.rakutentrade.my/b/events/webinar-capital-a-and-airasia-x

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-ky9HqZxa4

Glad to see new hangar completed and started operation.
No more Captain Tony but Tauke Tony, he is a foreman of a repair shop now .. lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrRxV9FMoLk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dzD20_TUN0

Keep mother share, if you wish to have aviation business (will receive new AAX share later) and non-aviation businesses.

Kept RCUID and let go mother share if you like to keep non-aviation business, to enjoy 8% interest and opportunity to convert to future mother share for capital gain & dividend. I foreseen non-aviation era will have better EPS, less debt and smaller share unit floating in market (assume share consolidation happens).

MRO business is expending and it is not a dream to IPO in future.

Since Cap A break RM1 , I will add some gasoline to this heat fire now and look at post-corporate exercise era
(My view is for discussion purpose. Buy and sell share at your own risk, you should done your own analysis.) :

Assumption : Current Cap A outstanding shares are 4.3b units, and 10 to 1 share consolidation happens, new outstanding shares is 430m units. Dividend payout ratio 30%.
Below calculation is assumption.
According to FY2023 quarterly report, cap A total revenue on non-aviation segment was RM1.085b , EBITDA was RM215m. After 24% tax & 10% interest & depreciation, net profit was RM141.9M and EPS (based on 430m share units) was RM0.33 . Current share price of RM1, indicated PE 3.3x only and dividend yield of 9.9% (based on RM0.099 dividend - 30% payout ratio).

According to FY2024 quarterly report, cap A total revenue on non-aviation segment (Jan to June) was RM508m , EBITDA was RM103m. After 24% tax & 10% interest & depreciation, net profit was RM67.9M and EPS (based on 430m share units) was RM0.1576 . Lets assume annual EPS is RM0.25, current share price of RM1, indicated PE 4x only and dividend yield of 7.5% (based on RM0.075 dividend - 30% payout ratio).

Do you think the current price is undervalue? HLIB TP is RM1.68 , based on EPS of RM0.25, the PE is 6.7x .
Several factors to look at: Increase in MRO hangar units, MRO slot fully book until 2025 year end, expansion of MRO aircrafts to Boeing and expansion of MRO service other aircraft operators.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IDYzEjqHLwQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lELGYwfHdck

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/26/oil-prices-little-changed-as-us-stockpile-drop-offsets-global-demand-woes.html

Tony: hello cheap oil =)

You guys lose the focus on future business model and keep thinking the current business model, is airline business profit your concern ?

A BIG NO, it is the businesses stayed with Cap A you should focus.
BTW, AA brand master agreement required all AA aviation companies (Thailand, Philippine, Malaysia, Indonesia) pay 1% - 2% of their revenue to AA brand company as royalty fee, right now Cap A still the owner of this branding company. FY2023 group revenue was 14B , this branding company easily has 140M royalty fee into pocket.

Without official figure, the shareholders can either guess the figure after AA gone OR use available information to reverse engineer and calculate the possible profit.

In classroom, we learn 1 + 1 = 2 , we also learn reverse engineering the equation to 2 - 1 = 1 .
This is the maximum hint I can offer, if you are too lazy to do the homework, perhaps can start selling your Cap A stock.
You will be surprise with the profit and EPS from non-aviation segment.

Why Tony focus on MRO service now ....

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727740

Finally all airline subsidiaries financial reports are posted in AAX & CAP A, good profit and operation cashflow in overall performance.
Time line also available to quit PN17:

16 October 2024 - EGM for the Proposals and Proposed Granting of Subscription Options

November 2024 / December 2024 -
• Price-fixing for the Warrants and announcement of Warrants Entitlement
Date
• Warrants Entitlement Date
• Listing and quotation of Warrants on the Main Market of Bursa Securities
• Completion of the Proposed Issuance of Free Warrants

December 2024 / January 2025
• Price-fixing for the Placement Shares
• Completion of the Proposed Private Placement
• SSPAs becoming unconditional
• Completion of the Proposed Acquisitions

January 2025 / February 2025
• High Court’s order obtained for confirmation of the Proposed Share Capital
Reduction
• Lodgement of the High Court’s order for confirmation of the Proposed Share
Capital Reduction with the Registrar of Companies
• Effective date of the Proposed Share Capital Reduction