Posted by ooihk899 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Sardin, if UP is able to reduce their production cost n increase their output,
then they may be able to maintain result.

Posted by ooihk899 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

It's harder to predict their profit since they only hedge
1/3 of their output as per AR info. I also do not know how
much they already sell forward along the way until QR out.
But I believe we are in good hand, hope this year Div is around 1.5.😄

Posted by ooihk899 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Sardin, just spill it out lah. What to worry? It's only discussion.

Posted by GS > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

which plantation company have minimal(or 0%) forward sales positions?

Posted by Sardin > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Hi GS, try search on small plantation company

Posted by ooihk899 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Sardin, what's your fear? Share with us ma!😊

Posted by Sardin > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

It can be summarised into 2 main points:
1. Selling cpo considerably below market value
2. Lesser cpo output
And looks like both are going to happen together. Besides that there are a few more things I try to figure out.

Posted by ooihk899 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

FY2023 Q1 ASP 37xx, This year CPO price Jan 3783.5 Feb 3949.5
Mar 4215.5 Info from MPOB.
UP hedge 1H 53620MT @3980. So, I don't think Q1 will affect much.
Have to look out for Q2 if CPO stay above 4200 for Q2.
Output wise, if it's below 5% YoY, will not affect much. Will catchup
starting Q2.
This year UP forward sales volume is low compare to last few years.
Up trend in CPO price will have lesser effect on profit.
Hopefully they can cover it with higher yields.

Posted by ooihk899 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Sardin, does my explanation 'masuk akal'?
Please let me have your thoughts.

Posted by Sardin > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Not sure if output with catch up in Q2 because El Nino effect is known to be lasting for months / years. RM 3,800 / MT in Q3 a bit too much of the discount compares to BMD FCPO in Jul, Aug, Sep.

Posted by Greenying > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Very healthy discussion and analysis 😀

Posted by ooihk899 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

2H forward contract qty is 28550MT, around 1/4 of UP Malaysia
plantation 2H output. I think effect will not be so much.
As for output, you can attend the AGM to ask the management on the
effect of El Nino on FFB production

Posted by observatory > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Does El Nino affect UP?

Maybe you can study changes in yield per mature hectare for its Indonesian and Malaysian plantations respectively during the historical El Nino years.

The questions are
1. How does El Nino affect Peninsular Malaysia and Kalimantan?
2. Do we have strong or normal El Nino in 2024?
3. How does it affect CPO price?
4. What is the net result if there is declining yield but higher prices?

What about the prices and outputs of other competing oil crops?

I suspect even professional traders find it difficult to answer confidently.

Posted by dam82 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

long time never come here ... hope can grow more after ex date ...

Posted by Sardin > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

@Observatory
The El Nino effect in 2024 is expected to be at moderate level, and of course it will push up the CPO price.
However, the high price of CPO is meant to compensate the reduction of output. If output is low, production cost per metric ton will be higher (assuming constant fixed cost, such as salaries, chemicals, etc.) and if the selling price is not high enough, it will squeeze the profit margin considerably.
How much this will affect UP, I am not confident to answer and I am far from being a professional trader.
But when I water my plants, and hang my clothes, phew... the weather is really really hot, I could feel the abnormal amount of heat. If this is only "moderate" I don't know how a serious El Nino feels like? My trees do not bear good fruits compares to a few months back, a lot less fruits and smaller fruits are what I got.

Posted by Sardin > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

UP did a risk assessment, I forgot which page on the annual report. Weather / climate has a rating associated to high risk and high impact besides the commodity price. I hope the contracted price had more than enough to adverse the impact of lower production. But I also know it is difficult to get a good deal / price stroke a few months back when effect of El Nino is not yet manifested. I believe there is a margin squeeze, hope it is a light one.

Posted by ooihk899 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Ytd Feb drop 3.8%, let's wait for Q1 production figure next week.
Anyway QR will be release on 26th. 😃

Posted by KingKKK > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

26th April or May?

Posted by ooihk899 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

26th April , QR out. Bullish or not depend on QR,
production quantity n their CPO ASP.

Posted by Pinky > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

What is that joker spamming

Posted by BudiLee > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

I am so happy to see UP's price start rising again today.

Posted by BudiLee > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

I think I have to sing that song again, coz UP price rising so high today, Yeayyy! Keep go up, keep go up! Siapa jual dia rugi 😃

Posted by Sardin > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Wah. Very good harvest woh. Very good surprise!

Posted by ooihk899 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Should not worry about the output,
YoY Q1 CPO output up by 1.9% overall.
Q1 Own production YoY up by 2.9%😁

Posted by Greenying > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Cheers!

Posted by dam82 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

trust the management ... i still think their tanah rata not reach the optimum palm oil output when that kick start the output will be fantastic ..... for now i just wait and see while all enjoy riding utdplt don't forget to grab a carlsberg beer and enjoy your day ... hahah kena promote mah ...

Posted by JrWarren > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

fking haze from Sumatra make my nose itchy, hope more rain coming in mid April to deal with the fire & Haze.
Most important is providing water source for the palm oil in this El Nino time.

Posted by Pinky > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Retail top buy:
https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=802415565254781&set=a.607997711363235

Posted by BudiLee > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Cheers everyone!

Posted by BudiLee > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

Hohoho let us all witness the passing of RM25 today! Bravo UP!

Posted by BudiLee > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

Quick buy some more now while the price is still below 25

Posted by BudiLee > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

😀😄😀

Posted by LossAversion > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

2nd round of profit taking, before buying back lower for dividends soon. he, he

Posted by Sardin > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

Going to RM 28. 😄

Posted by BudiLee > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

Can anyone tell me, how much is the broker fee + any other fees involved every time we buy or sell stocks?

Posted by Sardin > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

@BudiLee, check the contract note you received

Posted by stockraider > 5 days ago | Report Abuse

This is the best bluechip plantation share loh!

Posted by BudiLee > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

@Sardin, ok noted, thanks.

Posted by BudiLee > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Congrats UP, you just passed the line of Ji Go = Dua Lima , moving up further! You can do it! 😍😎

Posted by MoneyLovesMe > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Siapa jual dia rugi, sebab UP price akan naik terus sampai hari Jumat ini.

Posted by JrWarren > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

glad UP surpassed RM25, so will it drop after ex-date?
Hardly, because the fund manager's dividend expectation still there and the price movement will reflect their expectation:

1. What is the cash reserve after dividend payout ? If got extra cash means extraordinary dividend.
2. Are the production & CPO price same / better than 2023? Yes for 1Q2024, if 2Q & 3Q result suggest better production, CPO price maintain at 4k, fund manager will arbitrage & push up UP share price.

Posted by BudiLee > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

Thanks for your thoughts, JrWarren

Posted by lionel messi > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

What a gem of a stock. UP really epitomizes Buffett's famous advice of holding good stocks forever when asked when is the best time to sell. Never he says. Hard pressed to find another UP. Cheers. 🍻

Posted by BudiLee > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

Yeah, that's why I said siapa jual dia rugi, brother💎

Posted by BudiLee > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

Can anyone guess, how much will be the UP price on the day before the EX date?

Posted by sck88 > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

At least RM26 before EX date

Posted by MoneyLovesMe > 1 day ago | Report Abuse

RM27.80

Posted by BudiLee > 3 hours ago | Report Abuse

The Ex Date is getting closer and closer everyone. It's next Friday!

Posted by GS > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

the 1Q financial results is on 24/04, exactly after AGM.....

Posted by Ahlian > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

This selling before XD similar like last year. Share price will stay here for now. Price likely will only move after AGM.