Well, I will buy in batches until 29/11 to lower average price, plus the harvesting result is gradually improving, I am expecting a rebound unless EPF want this counter becomes undervalue.

This movement remind me of last year Nov dividend announcement as well, price just went down slowly, and after the ex-date, it rebounded in Dec ....

https://newsroom.airasia.com/news/airasia-adds-over-5-million-seats-for-flights-between-china-india-and-malaysia-in-2024

India, China, Jordan, Turkey visa free to Malaysia.

@Sardin - Conclusion quoted from the report "Based on the current palm oil prices and ***the Company’s efforts on securing the budgeted crop in the final quarter of 2023***, the Board of Directors expects that the results for the year will be very SATISFACTORY"

Therefore, Q4 output is worry free.

Finger cross.

@Sardin, it's possible because when UP selling forward contract, the CPO price is locked TODAY and deliver in next 3 / 6 /9 month. Therefore, they can project their profit & cash flow with 90% accuracy. Hence, the sufficient cashflow and the accuracy of cashflow projection gave the management confidence to declare high dividend. In the past, I never see the quarterly report expressed the results for the year will be very SATISFACTORY.

When Ukraine war started, CPO price at record high (RM 5-7k), but UP quarterly report still showing average selling price of RM4k+ , at that time I am sure these forward contract were negotiated with buyer so UP & buyer both benefit from the reasonable cost vs revenue. Maybe most of them is long term customer.

As compared to the company selling at spot price, future CPO price movement is unpredictable and hence the profit & cash flow also unpredictable. I owned Inno and UP, last year Inno declared very good dividend, but this year so so; on the opposite UP last year dividend was fine but this year dividend is expected to be Great.

Based on my past experience, I learned that 6% of dividend yield is the sweet spot for most investor (similar to EPF return except u cant take out EPF money) and the share price always self-correct to match this 6% benchmark. UTDPLT also showed similar correction in 2015 (u received FY2014 dividend in 2015) which averaged priced at RM26. RM1.65 divided RM26 = 6.3%. U can find similar 6% theory on Maybank, LPI, and other dividend stock for reference purpose.

Using the same 6% theory and assume current Q3 EPS of RM1.22 distributed as dividend, you will get RM20.33 as expected future share price. I cant tell Q4 result, so I will take RM20.33 as reference price.

Disclaimer: Above comment is for purely for reference and not a buy-sell advice. You are responsible for your own research and your buy-sell decision.

TO further enhance investor determination:
a) The last mid-term lucrative dividend distribution was 25/08/2014, Interim Extraordinary Special Dividend of 75 sen. At the end of FY2014, total of RM1.65 dividend declared. After 9 years, same type of dividend is back.
b) In 3Q2023 report - Prospect and Outlook, the company concluded with the following statement "Based on the current palm oil prices and the Company’s efforts on securing the budgeted crop in the final quarter of 2023, the Board of Directors expects that the results for the year will be very SATISFACTORY."

I am happy to take RM2 as well, but the fact suggested otherwise based on the following:

1) Despite RM400M+ cash in hand, KSL going to reinvest it (for land purchase / development) rather than privatization.
2) Privatization required huge fund from Khoo family and they cant afford the OPPORTUNITY COST.
3) What is the opportunity cost?
KSL has massive land bank in Johor, so they likely benefit from SG-JB RTS in property development
Malaysia Green Energy transition - AKA sell green electric to SG, more land required in Johor to build solar farm,
Few big conventional projects just completed and start generate cashflow, these monies can be used for reinvest again.

I bet everything will be status quo, no privatization (despite privatization is viable and best option), no dividend ( as mentioned above cash ALWAYS reinvested). I hope KSL proof me wrong by declaring dividend in FY2023.

Reply for some questions asked:

1) Price laggard: I will explain based on 2 factors.
One - NO dividend, so no buyer = no demand.
Two - Extreme capital gain company is not the main stream in Malaysia, Malaysian prefer CASH is KING, so dividend company is likely to get better share valuation in Malaysia.

2) Privatization price too low and trigger oppression of minority - Boustead Bhd's Net Asset per share is RM1.60, but average share price is RM0.60- 0.65 . LTAT offers to privatize at RM0.855. The market happily accepted the offers.

NOW look at KSL, share price recently pump up to RM1.20 (average), KSL offers to buy RM2.00 (assumption). Retail shareholders instantly got RM0.80 gain (67% gain based on purchase price RM1.20), so the privatization result is obvious right? KSL share price has been closing in SEN since 2018.

But on majority shareholder view, KSL has RM3.44 NTA per share, privatization price is RM2.00 (assumption), they still earn RM1.44 (or 72% gain) overall.

Despite KSL is severely undervalue for now, privatization will immediate give retail investor 67% gain and majority shareholder 72% gain (assume buyout price RM2.00). There are a lot undervalue company opted for privatization when share price is undervalue, then re-list again in bursa. Example: Maxis.

I hope KSL proof me wrong using their Q4 2024 result announcement / any dividend declaration for FY2024.

I used to own this counter, but given up after few years of holding due to the BUSINESS MODEL practice by the company.

1. The business model focus on using internal fund to develop the project, Minimum borrowing to reduce Financing Cost.

2. Any Profit will be reinvested back to the business itself to roll the snowball bigger and bigger, ie. use earned monies to buy more land, then develop, and repeat the same.

3. A lot net operating cashflow from sales, but go back to business at the end. Management was rewarded handsomely via director salaries & remuneration but minority shareholders got nothing. Huge shares owned by management / family circle, so AGM confirmed can pass the director salaries resolution.

4. The majority shareholders don't even care the share price high / low at the end. Because if they want to privatize the entire company, they can pay for cheap price (let say RM1.2) vs the net total asset price (RM3.44). This is a deep discount, but minority shareholders can't say NO because majority shareholders can trigger Mandatory Privatization if they want (just like recently Sime Darby acquire UMW then UMW become Sdn Bhd).

5. In conclusion, good business model for long term, business grow focused, but share price always at low side due to non-reward practice on no buy back treasury share , no dividend , no capital gain.

6. I foresee this business model will continue AKA buy land, develop property, sales, then repeat. The company has 1.1b worth of land bank, 683m properties for sales, 424m CASH, but at the end this CASH will be used to pay any land acquisition to increase the land bank, because land value keep on appreciate and new property price also continue increase, what investment can have double return from land and property. One stone kills 2 birds.

7. Downside risk: no dividend, no capital gain, KSL privatized at super discount price and investors force to accept the price.
Upside return: KSL start declare dividend, and share price go up.
Current market momentum: Better sales & cash inflow, share price go up due to positive financial result, dividend expectation is strong.

When the company in PN17 and still able to convince risk-conscious FI to lend them USD, I really wonder how Tony sell the story =)

1. You are rude when you said I'm clueless to comment. In opposite, how do you feel if I tell you to STFU when you ask "why UTDPLT price up". Use better word to reply not a HOSTILE sentence.

2. Nothing wrong with EPF taking profit and buy at low price later, especially the share at a new high price. In fact, EPF keep selling since Mar' 23. Some investor / fund manager will refer EPF action as one of the indicator to study EPF rational.

3. It's a new high, but partially driven by foreign fund.

4. Your estimation price of RM21 is my interest as well, then I will enjoy 70% capital gain after 7 years of holding.

@KClow
How sarcastic when you ask around why UTDPLT price up few days ago, then assume that I am clueless.
Feel free to share your opinion to proof you are not clueless?
I also hold this counter, thus a rationale discussion is welcome.

My finding is related to foreign fund and same incident has had happened at past.
Huge foreign fund flowed into Bursa since 13/9 until 21/9. Look at market participation data and you will know what I am talking about.
Huge jump from RM16 to RM17.4 without any CPO price support is impossible. Coincidentally, this huge jump also happened on 13/9 - 18/9 . Therefore, price hike partially driven by foreign fund.

When EPF unload, means EPF is taking profit and wait for a low bottom to buy back. From July till Sept, EPF total shareholdings dropped 1%.

Ku Khoo stock has attractive fundamental and lower PE, but Ku Khoo pays themself big fat check and left minority shareholders in limbo. 80% shares are holding by own people, if Ku Khoo argue share price not reflect true business value as excuse to privatization KSL, then offer cheap discount price over the NTA, minority shareholders have no choice but to swallow this pill.

Lets think from Bursa / SC side on the rational and differences for Scomi case:

1. PN17 extension is approved because aviation is the most affected industry throughout the entire pandemic. Now the aviation business in the world showed significant business improvement, hence Bursa opined that extension no longer required and AA has to start building up its business again or dabao.

2. A plan is submitted for "consultation", not sure included Bursa or not, but it's the only chance and to make this right, I suppose submission of the "consultation" plan is including Bursa and after correction, then the final version is submitted for approval.

3. Tony also want to quit from PN 17 soonest possible , so AA can move forward for better business. In the CNA video, timeline is given by Tony.

@geary

https://youtu.be/_oqJ0X3H0Fs?si=LfHreQfPBXJMjXaO
One more time, for your leisure weekend exciting news, from CAPITALA-Stony Flynuendo🚀
---------------------------------

Thank you @geary for such informative news. From my observation, there are few things otw:
1. Tony disposed some of his assets including F1 & football team to get cash, the cash is likely for new capital issuance within Tony's business.

2. AA customer segment are B40 and M40, India and China population are mainly in that segment. AA remains their first choice due to the affordability. Customer sources secured.

3. R&R of existing lease agreements with Airbus, BOCA and others lessors will take place in future to optimize its liabilities. In addition, Lessors actually have the right to terminate lease agreement, take back and dispose the aircraft. However, AAX and AA's lessors have opted to let AA keep the aircraft for business operation. The business sense of these lessors proved they are right, both AA & AAX business are fine and currently servicing lease payment. Cashflow worry free.

4. Philippine AA and Thailand AA are considered Cap. A subsidiaries now. Tony likely to list the local subsidiary and raise capital locally. New capital issuance is expected. NY listing still have far to go.

5. Rapid expansion: Huge aircraft purchase plan for larger capacity and other business expansion. More revenue.

6. Second time of business venturing: 2001, Tony first ventured into AA business (mismanaged by previous owner) and change the airline industry business model. 2023, Tony second time venture into AA business (heavy impact from Covid-19) and logistic business. Professional management with know-how.

7. Tony, a businessman sailed through the storm WIthOUT a single sen support from government.
Look at our Malaysia Airline stories: the losses, fund leakage, mismanaged, MAS CEO & Brahim story and so-on, taxpayer monies throw into ocean to save MAS. AA is outclass MAS by miles.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/article/why-does-malaysia-airlines-keep-failing-%E2%80%94-and-there-way-stop-it

1. Your comments showed your ignorance and lack of common sense. If you are an analysis of a firm / bank, or a fund manager, I am sure the portfolio is in RED.
2. Those who condemn AA from covid till now, keep cursing the company go bankrupt, I hope you never on-board AA flight at all and you dont deserve it.
3. The company is making its effort to revive the business, without any funding support from government. Ironically, the company is making all interest payment promptly and meeting its lease obligation.
4. We encourage a fruitful discussion, but dont be a parasite and keep spamming the same info for fun.

@Mabel
U also bought this?
I can see the outlook is improving after the restructure with revenue and profit increase gradually. Gross NPL also drop to 1.07%.

@kyliew
BIMB got dividend reinvestment plan which similar to Maybank, by doing this the cash / capital will not leave the company, then BIMB can use the dividend fund to lend out again and making profit, it is a triple win on no capital / retain earning outflow, compliance on BNM capital ratio, EPF / institutional investor accumulate more share and sell the share in secondary market at higher price. FYI got 90% shareholders actually opt for dividend reinvestment plan to enjoy better return.

I agree, most ppl look at profit rather than cash flow.
But do you know after all the cash payments to repair cost, interest expenses, and overhead, the cash flow from business operation is sufficient for LEASE payment of 1b.

Not to forget RM 2 billion advance sales ticket (which will turn into revenue within 12 months), and RM 1 billion net cash from operation. This is a golden goose that lays golden egg.

#Mabel

Cheer and enjoy your evening.

Not sure why you look bad on this counter in every aspect, but certainly you need to know / at least working on finance department to find out the real life accounting practice.

Here is a free lesson for you and I won't reply further in this counter:
1) A lease term of a plane can be 10-20 years, let say 15 years as example, latest accounting practice required financial leased asset to be booked in assets and depreciate over 15 years, this impacted income statement under depreciation and incurred expenses /loss but no actual cash outflow.

2) same goes to maintenance provision required AA recognized in balance sheet as liability and expenses as provision in income statement without actual cash outflow.

Because lease contract & accounting practice said u must recognize all the maintenance provision in ur book now, despite the expenses will only incurred in 2030. This is why 5b provision in balance sheet, but no cash spending for NOW. 5b provision covers from 2023 - 2043 maybe, so I said the amt inflate liability and accumulated loss.

Pn 17 regularisation plan is subject to update from time to time due to dynamic market condition. If AA has better customer load factor and profit, why should AA impose stringent condition to himself? You need to study more market practice, then apply ur academic mindset, not using the book knowledge and run the business.

Hope you learn something and I don't bother to reply u anymore.

Based on quarterly report, as long as CPO price stay above RM3600, the expected profit margin can stay at 25% and hopefully 2023 also payout RM1.40 dividend. =)

1) Depreciation & amortization are non-cash expenses, so it's fine as no cash outflow. The 5b maintenance in the BS is due to accounting policy which inflated the liability & loss.

2) 75% planes with 14b passengers carried in 2Q2023. 100% planes back to sky in August and summer holiday coming in 3Q2023, load capacity expected to exceed 14b passengers in 3Q2023 and better profit.

3) Breakdown the accumulated loss and see how much is provision loss (which is no actual cash outflow), and you will know what is the actual break-even profit for AA.

4) A series of corporate exercise & regularization plan to exit PN17 is expected, including but not limited to warrants, ESOS, RCUIDS, private placement, public issuance, and other R&R from leasing company is needed. If I remember correctly, warrants, ESOS, RCUIDS exercise price is between RM0.75 to RM1.00 . Current market price is on track to encourage / attract the holders exercise warrants, ESOS, RCUIDS. Once reaching certain threshold / exercise completed, PN17 will be past tense.

5) Investor & entrepreneur figure out how to move forward toward future and look for future vision. Today situation is similar to 2001 when Tony first bought AA at RM1, fully loaded with accumulated loss except it's caused by Covid. Will AA back to the field with better position? You can see from the market response.

6) As usual, full of repeated info / useless nonsense from the same person.

All grounded planes are expected to back to operation in August 2023, more new routes (start flying in September) announced by AA, which translates to more revenue in 3Q2023.

@CapitalB , warrant conversion price is RM 1, to justify "in the market price", the formula always buying price + exercise price, which is RM1.46 for NOW.

Including the cost (45 sen), warrant "in the market" price will be RM1.45 = =

SAME SAME SAME information has been posted by you again and again. IF you are about to spam the same information to answer all the people, you may just pack up and leave this thread alone. I like SPAM LUNCH MEAT, but no body like spam pollution.

Here is an accounting class for some of you lazy to dig information, especially how the liabilities and negative networth have been inflated:

TO recognize a provision, Income statement needs to incur expenses, this expenses incur lost at bottom line and will have NEGATIVE impact on Balance sheet.

Then the provision will be a liabilities in Balance Sheet as well, in conclusion double impact in Balance Sheet.

Now look at the annual report:

a) Aircraft maintenance provisions relate to aircraft held under operating lease arrangements whereby, the Group is contractually obligated to maintain the aircraft during the lease period and to redeliver the aircraft to the lessors at the end of the lease term, in certain pre-agreed conditions. Accordingly, the Group estimates the aircraft maintenance costs required to fulfil these obligations at the end of the lease period and recognise a provision for these costs at each reporting date.

b) Aircraft maintenance reserve funds relate to payments made by the lessee for maintenance activities to be undertaken during the lease period. The Group will reimburse the lessee for agreed maintenance work done as and when incurred. The Group records the amounts received as maintenance reserve funds. At the expiry of the lease term, any excess maintenance reserve is recognised in the profit and loss account.

I come i3 for useful information, not quarrel in child table.

2 things to expect:
a) good financial result despite negative networth.
b) All grounded planes are expected back to the field in August 2023, which means more revenue to be delivered in 3Q2023, thus the value investors view positively in the share price.

I suppose it will stay at RM1.12. The above statement of "UAO reit many properties are still empty" is without proper research.

FY2022 annual report indicated average occupancy rate of close to 80% as at 31 December 2022, the revenue in 2Q2023 financial report has not change much. Therefore, I think occupancy rate is quite stable for Q2.

AAX is making money for sure, but beware of other opex.

Whatever told in The Edge, that is inline with Capital A AGM opinion.

Page 6 will have all the info you guys need.
Safe trip and happy flying.

https://www.capitala.com/misc/AGM_Presentation_2023.pdf