@Sardin, I agree with you that the date is carefully plan to release the QR long time ago.
With the current order book, production data, CPO price and adequate cash reserve, a reasonable price movement is expected.
Business model is adequate for contract sales to eliminate most receivables and take advantage at cash position. UP cash position never fail me and always at 1/3 or 1/4 of its annual revenue.

You also looking CAP-A wind up previously, so when is the date?
That Indian boy now got another 5 years to deal with the mess, I am sure promise will be fulfilled.

An accounting figure is past figure, you are associating the PAST figure to current development and neglected all improvement thus far. I saw all your explained is figures and the PAST truth financial facts. A fact is a fact, nothing more.
You keep telling fact (CAP-A financial very bad), followed by explanation from the fact (CAP-A figures how, PN17, very weak), then you opined CAP-A counter very bad and will pok gai anytime. To me, you are humble historian that shares PAST figures and FACTS only. If you are banker, you are at the right track for being risk adverse, but even Citibank is lending to CAP-A, so ~~~~~~

Myself, is associating the PAST figure to current development and all improvement thus far.
I can tell financial is bad but there is figure improvement, I saw new business formed and ready to expand, I associated the new alliance strategy with potential.
I am giving fact (CAP-A figure is improving) and explanation (evidence that debt / interest paid, revenue & cash coming), then conclusion (not a bad counter because improvement, future vision and CAP-A is making huge progress) this company will survive.

守认以愚，不如受人以漁。
Stubborn people stay firm on their own opinion (愚见) only, why dont consider other opinions and benefit your self from different angle?
固守自己愚见，不如接受别人不同角度的观点来渔获未来。

PAT increased 18.7%,
RM1.65b contract (revenue) to be delivered within next 12 months.

1Q2024 EPS improved by 18% =)

Ya, PIG is flying, I am seeing this company Performing, Improving and Growing since post-Covid era. Very very big big PIG.

I saw operating cashflow increase, I saw interest payment on-time, I saw debt slowly payoff (Sabah Development Bank - RM500m debt settled & other lease payment repaid), I saw new expansion plan and the plan is making huge progress (MRO Sepang hub tentatively completion ard June 2024), I saw new financier supporting the company, I saw much more thing that ordinary people and accounting nerd dont see.

The surprising part is, Story got balls to lead the company for another 5 years and the board also AGREED.

I am interested to find out what is the UP hedging strategy now and its' proportion (%).

glad UP surpassed RM25, so will it drop after ex-date?
Hardly, because the fund manager's dividend expectation still there and the price movement will reflect their expectation:

1. What is the cash reserve after dividend payout ? If got extra cash means extraordinary dividend.
2. Are the production & CPO price same / better than 2023? Yes for 1Q2024, if 2Q & 3Q result suggest better production, CPO price maintain at 4k, fund manager will arbitrage & push up UP share price.

If Microsoft is making a video specially for Malaysia, the international investors are focusing on Malaysia too.
More opportunity / travel to Malaysia? We will find out in future.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcSJ4tRHq-Q

Worry about capital gain in CAPITALA and no dividend ?
Why dont buy loan stock to enjoy 8% interest and convert loan stock into mother stock once CAPITALA share price go beyond exercise price of RM0.75?

After listing in USA, you also can buy their USA shares to enjoy royalty income payout first while waiting share price go up.

Cashflow (dividend, interest, royalty) is a form of motivation to keep me hold this share (asset).

Work smart and not wait hard.

fking haze from Sumatra make my nose itchy, hope more rain coming in mid April to deal with the fire & Haze.
Most important is providing water source for the palm oil in this El Nino time.

CPO priced at RM4476 and fund manager tekan the share price.
Any reason not to acquire UP during salary day ?
I foresee the next round price up will be near dividend ex-date or after AGM.

When those retail investors are panic selling, institution investors are buying.
CTOS main customer is institutional creditor , not retail individual buyer.

Most American banks use the score provided by central scoring central.
However, Malaysia bankers seldom use CTOS score as benchmark because it has no reference value.
Malaysia Bank uses CCRIS as main reference (as long as no overdue and installment is ZERO delay, you are good), CTOS is secondary system to find out bankruptcy case and any due with other agencies (ie. hutang with Maxis , Astro , Telekom and so-on).

Who is selling and collecting now?
Retail investors are selling, institutional investor are grabbing cheap stock, day traders are goreng for quick profit. The ending will be price go back to RM1.45-RM1.50 and investor still enjoying the same / higher dividend.

Just got my paycheck and bought some.
Correction is always there, not surprise.
My 6% dividend yield theory workout the estimated price is around RM25 (based on RM1.50 dividend payout and exclude RM0.40 Extraordinary Dividend). Because the Extraordinary Dividend is only pay occasionally.

5 out of 9 directors surname Koo.
After disqualified a director, Right to appoint director is with the current management, I foresee another Koo being appointed.
A coup to cast out Koo family in management is impossible because they have substantial shareholding.
Johor is the main development area now, to maximize profit, KSL will continue to use internal cash to fund the project. Until exhaust of internal fund, then only go for bank borrowing, no chance for dividend payout at all.

As suggested that cast out the directors is step one. Then need to advertise in The Edge & other media platform to accumulate the minority shareholding % to start an EGM and revise the director remuneration structure, from PURE CASH SALARY & ALLOWANCE to SHARE option as salary.

The Koo family has been taking advantage on KSL as in-house ATM and cashed into their own pocket. When the traditional CASH SALARY is abandon, and STOCK option is their salary, they will do anything to push up the share price / paying dividend as their salary is now correlated to the stock ownership.

Will this method success ? No, because Asian always mind their own business, unlike western investors which know how to protect their own right (How often u see Malaysian go into strike 【罢工】). At the end, Malaysian will opt for easier solution, Let go and buy other shares.

After all, I dont see any cash will leak to the 3rd party investor other than Koo family in the following situation:
1. NTA per share RM3.65, super light debt, impossible to bankrupt, so dont expect any asset sell down and get the cash.
2. Dividend : as mention above, jangan mimpi.
3. Capital Gain : KSL is like bitcoin now, you expect other to pay higher price to buy ur share, so u can get capital gain. However, w/o the motivation of dividend, will other pay higher price to get KSL share ? Do they expect to buy KSL share at RM1.50, wait the company bankrupt and get the RM3.65 from asset disposal return ?

apply 6% dividend rule and u will find out the target price

Creditors and lessors will agree to transfer the debts from AA to AAX via the ownership buyout because their debt contracts are secured by the aircraft, new borrower of AAX is totally fine as long as the company make money and continue to service the debt.

CAP A debt will not be transfer to AAX because the MRO, santan, app service are not part of AA business.

Quote: @Sslee - Note: As at 31/9/2023 capA shareholders' equity is negative RM 8,427,155,000

31/9/2023 , Tony go to moon order nasi lemak.

To be precise, USA company holding all IP and brand name of AA (intangible asset).
Tony selling AA every year 1% annual revenue to USA company, in exchange for USD1.15B for business expansion in ASEAN.
As a shareholder of USA company, I get pay 1% AA annual revenue as ROYALTY payment. Bear in mind that air traffic and revenue of CAP A are increasing now and future (with the business expansion plan).
Just like Apple using Nokia patented design, Apply needs to pay Nokia royalty.
The method of valuation calculation is stated in the bursa pdf, have urself read the document for further understanding.

amazing result, 535m cash, dividend ????
Beli tanah....

Conclusion:
1. CAP A reduce the accumulated loss by RM4.5b and USD150m loan transferred to USA company.
2. Existing CAP A shareholder is likely getting USA company new share, I guess the ratio is 4 existing CAP A share to 1 new USA share. USA company not a CAP A subsidiary as the shareholding is less than 51%, so the above 4.5b loss will not show at CAP A balance sheet.
3. 1% of CAP A revenue will go to USA company, roughly RM130M (or USD27.1M) cash confirm masuk pocket based on 2023 estimated revenue of RM13b.
4. Since CAP A cant pay dividend now due to negative networth, I think this is the alternative way to reward shareholder with cash.
5. Learn how AA makes money: https://i.imgur.com/8K1weV2.png
6. CAP A changing operating strategy and wanna transform Malaysia / Thailand into second Dubai (AKA ASEAN international transfer hub), the strategy will increase the group revenue in near future.
7. Flight traffic is expected to increase by a lot in ASEAN region due to China de-risking policy. AA aggressive flight expansion to cater regional demand increased and keeping the advantage of economic of scale operation.
8. B40 & M40 remain as CAP A target customer, so AFFORDABLE ticket is important

Well, Tony is going to NASDAQ now =)
Interesting to find out the accounting practice to reduce the accumulated loss by RM4.5 b

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3426301

@Sardin, I think u know which company I am talking abt =P
It ranked no. 2 for a reason, but the hidden potential is tremendous once the other estates enter into harvesting period.
I got two more no. 2 companies in other industry which not ready to share, but the no. 3 such as time and rce are always a good buy and they outperformed my portfolio in 2023.

Everyone has their own 2nd best, thus for me , this company must share most of UP characteristics, ie. 80% div payout policy, consistent div payout every year and debt free. So far only 1 palm oil company that owned by Sabah gov meet this criteria.

Strong cash position and the CPO extraction yield is double as compared to Malaysia industry average.

Other than India got alot GREEN, I found alot RED (especially KK to Taipei) ..... and alot Yellow lar .....

https://newsroom.airasia.com/news/airasia-adds-1-mil-promo-seats-due-to-increasing-demand

Simply said: Higher jetfuel cost, higher load factor to break even.
So what is the breakeven load factor % for the given fuel cost ?
U pandai pandai research la, if u able to modulate this formula, I am sure u already on-board and judge this stock is under/over value.

I make a picture for lazy guys who lazy to do research, keep on bashing and dont even bother to understand AA business model.

https://i.imgur.com/8K1weV2.png

AA business model is like a Bell Curve, why there is a free seat? Why u cant secure a cheap ticket ? When you are paying normal ticket price?
This picture covers all.

Overall, AA fare (budget airline) is still cheaper as compared to service airline such as Singapore Airline, JAL, ANA and others.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KA7QXc11k_4

Tony: When we promised to to bring back all 2,000 redundant crews, we did.
Talk is cheap.
In fact that we did it, with no government support, out of the worst human crisis in our generation, probably the last 3 generations, was a proud day for me.

I suppose the regularization plan is ready, but rather than going through the troublesome regularization and corporate exercise which incurred tremendous management cost, seem like Capital A has opted the simple second way out, which is positive profit on next 2 quarter and positive networth. Not sure how Tony going to play his magic on the positive networth, but he is likely apply the same AAX method to apply for PN17 upliftment after 2 quarter positive profit and positive networth.

Status quo, No privatization, No dividend, No buy back.
Khoos' will continue to pay them self fat cheque, while rolling all the cash and reinvest.
Khoos' dont give a damn.

How come GE and Airbus approved to restructure the lease agreement?
Why Bangkok Bank and Citibank approved debt financing of USD179 M to Cap. A ?
Why need to issue revenue bond of USD200 M at the international credit market for the expansion of the airline?
Why want to go for equity raising including potential IPO issuance for AirAsia Philippines in the near term and further equity raising from AirAsia Indonesia?

Haiya, the management must be drunk and high ....

@Mabel, shall we go for a drink to get high and drunk ?

Bought again when price is low, but this surprise price surged is another level and totally unexpected.

Ya, very disappointed result.
However, I still receive my interest payment on every quarter and lease payments are settled on time.
How come ?

@Sardin, Ipoh 2 days 1 night makan trip. That is what I did in 2017.

Cash is King, no cash no talk, we Malaysian love cash... Without dividend, the share is like BITCOIN, always expecting the next Lulu offering higher price for capital gain. At the end, the boss at behind counting $$, investor cries without tear.

well, EPF jumped to Takaful for obvious reason, and once Takaful declared dividend, EPF will jump back here again for Q4 dividend unless they wanna skip the lucrative dividend from this counter.

Finally BIMB business back to usual with lower NPL ratio and better revenue.
6% dividend this year.

cause I learned the lesson last year, after Ex-date, share price keep on going up in Dec until RM1 dividend declaration T.T

Since EPF make the price so attractive and the probability of Q4 result is great, I might as well get the 80 sen plus the Feb 2024 dividend and capital gain if possible.

Well, I will buy in batches until 29/11 to lower average price, plus the harvesting result is gradually improving, I am expecting a rebound unless EPF want this counter becomes undervalue.

This movement remind me of last year Nov dividend announcement as well, price just went down slowly, and after the ex-date, it rebounded in Dec ....

https://newsroom.airasia.com/news/airasia-adds-over-5-million-seats-for-flights-between-china-india-and-malaysia-in-2024

India, China, Jordan, Turkey visa free to Malaysia.

@Sardin - Conclusion quoted from the report "Based on the current palm oil prices and ***the Company’s efforts on securing the budgeted crop in the final quarter of 2023***, the Board of Directors expects that the results for the year will be very SATISFACTORY"

Therefore, Q4 output is worry free.

Finger cross.

@Sardin, it's possible because when UP selling forward contract, the CPO price is locked TODAY and deliver in next 3 / 6 /9 month. Therefore, they can project their profit & cash flow with 90% accuracy. Hence, the sufficient cashflow and the accuracy of cashflow projection gave the management confidence to declare high dividend. In the past, I never see the quarterly report expressed the results for the year will be very SATISFACTORY.

When Ukraine war started, CPO price at record high (RM 5-7k), but UP quarterly report still showing average selling price of RM4k+ , at that time I am sure these forward contract were negotiated with buyer so UP & buyer both benefit from the reasonable cost vs revenue. Maybe most of them is long term customer.

As compared to the company selling at spot price, future CPO price movement is unpredictable and hence the profit & cash flow also unpredictable. I owned Inno and UP, last year Inno declared very good dividend, but this year so so; on the opposite UP last year dividend was fine but this year dividend is expected to be Great.

Based on my past experience, I learned that 6% of dividend yield is the sweet spot for most investor (similar to EPF return except u cant take out EPF money) and the share price always self-correct to match this 6% benchmark. UTDPLT also showed similar correction in 2015 (u received FY2014 dividend in 2015) which averaged priced at RM26. RM1.65 divided RM26 = 6.3%. U can find similar 6% theory on Maybank, LPI, and other dividend stock for reference purpose.

Using the same 6% theory and assume current Q3 EPS of RM1.22 distributed as dividend, you will get RM20.33 as expected future share price. I cant tell Q4 result, so I will take RM20.33 as reference price.

Disclaimer: Above comment is for purely for reference and not a buy-sell advice. You are responsible for your own research and your buy-sell decision.

TO further enhance investor determination:
a) The last mid-term lucrative dividend distribution was 25/08/2014, Interim Extraordinary Special Dividend of 75 sen. At the end of FY2014, total of RM1.65 dividend declared. After 9 years, same type of dividend is back.
b) In 3Q2023 report - Prospect and Outlook, the company concluded with the following statement "Based on the current palm oil prices and the Company’s efforts on securing the budgeted crop in the final quarter of 2023, the Board of Directors expects that the results for the year will be very SATISFACTORY."

I am happy to take RM2 as well, but the fact suggested otherwise based on the following:

1) Despite RM400M+ cash in hand, KSL going to reinvest it (for land purchase / development) rather than privatization.
2) Privatization required huge fund from Khoo family and they cant afford the OPPORTUNITY COST.
3) What is the opportunity cost?
KSL has massive land bank in Johor, so they likely benefit from SG-JB RTS in property development
Malaysia Green Energy transition - AKA sell green electric to SG, more land required in Johor to build solar farm,
Few big conventional projects just completed and start generate cashflow, these monies can be used for reinvest again.

I bet everything will be status quo, no privatization (despite privatization is viable and best option), no dividend ( as mentioned above cash ALWAYS reinvested). I hope KSL proof me wrong by declaring dividend in FY2023.

Reply for some questions asked:

1) Price laggard: I will explain based on 2 factors.
One - NO dividend, so no buyer = no demand.
Two - Extreme capital gain company is not the main stream in Malaysia, Malaysian prefer CASH is KING, so dividend company is likely to get better share valuation in Malaysia.

2) Privatization price too low and trigger oppression of minority - Boustead Bhd's Net Asset per share is RM1.60, but average share price is RM0.60- 0.65 . LTAT offers to privatize at RM0.855. The market happily accepted the offers.

NOW look at KSL, share price recently pump up to RM1.20 (average), KSL offers to buy RM2.00 (assumption). Retail shareholders instantly got RM0.80 gain (67% gain based on purchase price RM1.20), so the privatization result is obvious right? KSL share price has been closing in SEN since 2018.

But on majority shareholder view, KSL has RM3.44 NTA per share, privatization price is RM2.00 (assumption), they still earn RM1.44 (or 72% gain) overall.

Despite KSL is severely undervalue for now, privatization will immediate give retail investor 67% gain and majority shareholder 72% gain (assume buyout price RM2.00). There are a lot undervalue company opted for privatization when share price is undervalue, then re-list again in bursa. Example: Maxis.

I hope KSL proof me wrong using their Q4 2024 result announcement / any dividend declaration for FY2024.