sure kena UMA....

from an epic loser to a 1 day champion...

don't tell me they going to push 10 cent

price is now trade at 50 MA which a good sign... however, there's a big gap between support & volume... must do some assessment before heading in

Unload some for me to shop in Padini

apparently, there's a chance for BA in Caspian sea according to CIMB report.

waiting the 2nd wave to re-enter..... to hot to touch now....

cannot... wait...

Felicity... That's last year report

Wait limit up.... high entry ni.....

old news la cooling.....

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/01/18/new-lrt3-contract-to-be-signed-soon/

Some outstanding payment to be paid in Q1... the revenue & cash flow shall be strengthen.

the management is switch their spoke person from UOB to CIMB... that's why UOB is so fed up with the SELL call....

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/01/18/cimb-research-retains-add-for-bumi-armada-tp-70-sen/

“Canada Pension Plan Investment Board was in talks with Malton on the purchase of up to a 49% stake in the Pavilion Bukit Jalil mall.”

It’s 49% of the project not the company

Make way to WCT REITS

so the debt restructuring expert come into picture... Internal and external

by the way, if there's really a shark out there borrow 1Bil shares to short, who should the shark go to? who have the 1Bil shares ready for lending? Are they really dump enough to lend out the shares and let the syndicate short to 15 cents and earn a little interest from the shares lending out? they suffer greater loss than what they earned, right?

cut loss and sideline guys... keep the $$ for CNY spending... not point to hold now

not material unless break 175

EARNINGS REVISION/RISK

• Downgrade 2018-20 earnings forecasts by 10%, 19% and 16% respectively. Given the
lack of announcements for 2019 work scope, we have downgraded our OMS division
forecasts sharply (see RHS table). We assume the worse-case scenario that assumes low
subsea utilisation from 4Q18 to early-20. Previously, our OMS forecasts assumed small
profits as management was highly confident of continued employment of subsea vessels in
the Caspian Sea. Our FPSO forecasts have been slightly upgraded as earnings from large
FPSOs like Olombendo and Kraken (despite still facing penalties) appear to have stabilised.
We assume small group profit growth in 2019-20 on lower financing costs after partial loan
repayments and the full-year effect of lease income contributions from Kraken and
Olombendo.

• Risks. a) Worse-than-expected utilisation, b) unexpected impairments, and c) poor
performance of FPSOs. Upside risks include substantial contract replenishment for OMS.

VALUATION/RECOMMENDATION

• Slash target price to RM0.10 (from RM0.41). Our SOTP-based target price implies 2x PE
and 0.1x 2019F P/B, which is at a discount to Yinson’s 18x forward PE. However, it implies
9x EV/EBITDA which is comparable to Yinson’s and that of other FPSO and OSV peers.
The DCF for FPSO is valued at RM0.87/share which reflects impairments on Kraken
(WACC: 8.0%, up to firm value, terminal value 15%). We lower our OMS valuation from
RM0.10/share to RM0.07/share to reflect the potential subsea impairment risk. Also, we
deduct RM5b of net debt from our SOTP assumption, which we assume is tied to the
troubled OMS segment.

• Downgrade to SELL (from BUY). Even though the group remains profit-generating and has
likely stabilised its FPSO earnings, this itself is not sufficient as we now foresee further
downside risk. Sentiment will shift to the fundamental drag from the OMS division, which has
still not been adequately factored in by the market based on EBITDA forecasts. At the very
least, the group must replenish OMS contracts (and return it to profitability) and resolve the
uncertainties of loan refinancing to support upside catalysts for the stock.

STOCK IMPACT

• Impairment risk remains. The group impaired 70% of its OSV fleet, of which we estimate
17 vessels were laid up and 13 vessels were contracted but with low profitability. We think
the subsea vessels may face impairments if they remain uncontracted for over a year.

• Given the OMS’ risks, the stock appears expensive on an EV/EBITDA basis. Even if the
group is able to conclude refinancing or monetisation plans, this will not likely be a
permanent relief. More importantly, the stock is still not out of the woods in terms of earnings
fundamentals. In a worst-case scenario of persistent OMS losses, our 2019F EBITDA will
decline to a RM1b base (2017: RM1.2b) vs consensus forecast of RM1.3b. Given its
burgeoning loans and our projection of more downgrade risks to consensus forecasts for
EBITDA, BAB is not cheap at 10x forward EV/EBITDA. In comparison, global FPSO and
OSV players are trading at 6-10x EV/EBITDA. Its direct local peer, Yinson, is trading at 8-9x
EV/EBITDA. We note that the valuation gap in terms of PE is widening, mainly because
Yinson’s OSV segment is not material to earnings and impairment risks. The low 0.1-0.2x
P/B for BAB in this case would be comparable to that of other distressed OSV players, and
also reflects the sentiment of loan default risks and poor earnings confidence.

• Free cash flow generation not enough to fund new projects. Our revised forecasts,
which assumed the OMS worst-case scenario (ie no new contract replenishments), projects
weak FCF of <RM0.6b p.a. Although management publicly revealed an internal memo dated
27 Nov 18 that suggests potential cost-cutting strategies, we were not guided on the details
but assume that this was necessary to stem the decline in FCF generation. With
uncertainties on whether the monetisation plans can come to fruition and on the outcome of
a Supreme Court hearing in Feb 19 for the US$275m Armada Claire compensation, it will be
near impossible for the group to secure new FPSO projects in the future. Moreover, the
3Q18 cash holding of RM1.5b (this is prior to the RM0.5b loan repayment which will be
reflected in 4Q18) may not be sufficient to cover loan repayments over the next two-year
horizon if the EBITDA declines are worse than expected.

Bumi Armada (BAB MK)

OMS Now A Key De-rating Catalyst And Earnings Drag

Based on the lack of announcements on subsea work replenishments, OMS is now a
major fundamental drag. OMS losses will widen. Given the worsening EBITDA outlook
for OMS, BAB appears expensive at 10x EV/EBITDA vs peers. We assume a significant
loan base is linked to OMS, hence any potential refinancing will not be cause for relief.
Based on impairment risks (subsea), EBITDA downgrades and cash crunch, we
downgrade BAB to SELL and slash target price to RM0.10.

WHAT’S NEW

• Loan breakdown. Within a total RM11b loan profile, we estimate RM6b-7b are project loans
for the FPSO segment, which is the sole generator of Bumi Armada’s (BAB) income since
3Q18. The remaining unsecured corporate debt of about RM5.3b was mostly incurred to
support the group’s offshore marine services (OMS) expansion in the past. Aside from a
collectively large fleet of some 44 offshore support vessels (OSV), OMS also includes
pipelay barges like KP1, Armada Installer and Armada Constructor, and the new ice-class
OSVs like Bumi Uray, Bumi Pokachi and Bumi Naryan-Mar. Recap that the group had
recently repaid RM0.5b in unsecured term loans, leaving RM1.5b in short-term loans
whereby management guided that they will strive to reach a refinancing solution within
1Q19. We understand that the remaining unsecured loans are mainly revolving credits and
long-term sukuk with no immediate maturities.

• OMS now a key drag on earnings and loan repayments. OMS fell into losses in 3Q18
after the Armada Installer completed its works in Jun 18. We believe the Armada
Constructor had completed its work scope in Oct 18, given that the vessel was shown as
stacked since Nov 18, according to MarineTraffic. The past trend shows that these subsea
vessels (catered for the Caspian Sea region) do not work during the winter season, but
profits can still be recognised in 4Q from procurement and preparation activities for incoming
works in the following year. In contrast to the Lukoil 2018 work extension which was
announced in Aug 17, there were no announcements for the 2019 work scope in end-18,
even though management guided earlier that they were bidding for jobs from customers
other than Lukoil. This adds to certainties that the subsea vessels will widen OMS losses in
4Q18, while the OSV fleet will remain loss-making on a seasonally low ~40% utilisation.
While FPSO cash flow may appear to be stable moving forward, this is not sufficient as
OMS’ weakening EBITDA may hamper future loan repayments.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/affin-hwang-launches-securities-borrowing-lending-retail-investors

legal case can always appeal for unfavorable court decision ... i'm more worried on the negotiation.

TTSTAY = teh tarik session Tay.... wake up boys.... how many are real here....

1 cent swing... left right pocket game

Do you think Bursa will allow another iconic O&G stock falls? Here is the place where AK make his fortune. He wouldn't shame himself here

Lol... prelude, InvestKing.... Perisai just got its delisting notice.... THHE and sumatec are queuing for their final meal. Do you think Bursa will allow another iconic O

Trading price above MA100... Bull running...

run first... it's not a trial

funds are coming back to his stock

Desmond!!!!!

that need to wait until the final Q result....

popcorn

anything will happen

Indeed Desmond have some connection in Far East.

Popcorn....

Shpok, sorry for the broken comment...

go check pearlwhite's comment pattern, she only appear at pre M&A event and the timing is just right on the material development. Coincidentally, ex-bankers from UOB host the events. That team of ex-bankers must still have access to UOB network.

Coming back to BA, news from The Star shows that UOB KH have 1st hand corporate development of BA and come in front to speak for the stupid management. If UOB have the access, so do pearlwhite; and she may also have access to directorial network in BA. See her willingness to share us the gossip in the higher management. Also, remember the leak of the internal memo? Shouldn't that consider a non public material info? No action is taken by the management and Bursa. More like a permission by the management.

Last is how to ride the wave. wait 10 cents or top up...

Shpok, I have make up a story, have popcorn ready.

go check pearlwhite comment pattern, she only appear at pre M

Pearlwhite and her team is targeting BA. Just can’t figured out they are with or against BA. Their team can destroy and save a deep shit company.

good closing

good closing

O&G funds taking position?

drama..... where's my peanuts....

LMHO

look like another flat day

would be challenging from now unless the solution on current ratio is properly addressed...

total volume ~ 3% of market cap....

look like retailers play now.... small lot transact.. 100m turnover catch lot of attention....

can break 80 cents by EOD?