goodbye everyone. time to leave after good profit. it's not merely techinical that some big sharks are distributing, but that business itself will not be improving. look at crack spread. good bye! thanks china!

Tapis, the Malaysian crude benchmark traded in Singapore, has for a long time held the title of the world’s most expensive grade. Its lightness (43-45° API) and extremely low Sulphur content (0.04 percent) make for a highly valuable refining asset. At the time of writing it had broken the much-hyped $70 market.

However, having started production in 1979, Tapis has been falling since 1998 and its current production of 200,000 bpd is half of what it was 20 years ago. Hence, the most expensive oil grades now are Kikeh (35° API, 0.1 percent Sulphur), Miri Light (36.3° API, 0.08 percent Sulphur) and Kimanis (38.6° API, 0.06 percent Sulphur), currently trading at $4 per barrel premium to Dated Brent (in December 2017, they’ve oscillated in the +$4-4.50 per barrel premium interval).

In many ways, the Malaysian grades’ remoteness created this demand for them – Australian and Southeast Asian refiners are willing to pay the extra premium to have the crudes sooner than to wait for Brent (similar quality characteristics) or other grades to arrive there.

dude, share price below 20 sen yes, but now we're saying is EPS 20sen dude. be a better investor by looking forward, not backwards.

Anyone with simple algebra knowledge should know how severely undervalued right now. Info given as above!

Brent at USD69. An EPS of 20sen, with PE at 15, you shall figure it out the price of Hibiscus.

9500? 360? 6.6? Funny even the RM/USD rate is not right, not to say the other three vital factors. UK itself will be 4/5-5k dude, and 360? Hibiscus offtake is not daily dude. Worst still profit margin estimation. But I like your conservation attempt, at least I do agree anything below RM1 is still extremely undervalued for this stock.

Post removed.Why?

big block at 88sen? haha, first u must know why there is a big block, second u must know why the big block can be gone suddenly. Then u will be a real winner in stock market.

Can close 90.5 will be damn nice

Brent at 66.5 now. Holy shit. RM1 by 2017. Gonna collect some below 90sen.

u can q any price dude. 20sen 15 sen 5sen. no one stopping you

see you all at RM1.33, best gift for 2018.

Right. Increased Revenue yet Profit rised at a decreased margin. Something fishy going on.

Damn. Share price has rallied way ahead now. It is still worse than Q1 results. And slight improvement from Q2

Either 10.8 or 11.4, Lau's estimated that QoQ is declining. Let's hope he can realise his mistakes and not post such articles again. This kid has not realised how his analysis is a laughing stock.

OH MY. Mr chong has adopted the momentum investing!!! This is unbelievable seeing how he maintained his view over the last few quarters even coming out with articles to compare or denigrate others. Anyway, willingess to change or adapt is the best attitude in life. The faster you adapt, the quicker you gain. God Bless Mr Chong and hope to see more of his articles. Informative and helpful.

So basically Hibiscus and Reach are the only two pure E&P players listed in Bursa, which both have direct positive relationship with the increasing oil price. Reach has problem coming up with the money to buy its Kazaks asset and paying off its shareholders. But lovely for speculators to just push and push. 8USD difference is real crazy profit for pure E&P company like Hibiscus.

"significant provision of doubtful debts made under this
division during quarter ended 30 September 2017 is expected to be reversed before year end after its major customer repay its debt to the Group, which will result in an expected hike in profit before tax."

basically accounting system changes from customer side. money will be recouped in the next quarter.

damn why can't ppl be more considerate to write all in English. Isn't toleransi is what we learn in school and practise in investing too?

Thanks Tan KW. Always love to read articles you shared. May I ask if you guys have more reading materials from Dr Neoh? I tried hard to find his book but to no avail.

I can't seem to click in the link. Anyone care to share the PDF file content here or mind to send me

whatttttt. waiting for my 1.38 to reach still. Halfway to go

"We were also made to understand that the North Sabah PSC acquisition has entered the transition mode while the economic interest to Hibiscus took effect from 1 Jan 2017. "

I don't understand humans who sold, I just don't.

buy and wait patiently. 1.20 is still the TP.

that's easy. go through all O&G companies fundamentals you get your answer why we bought in here. see you guys at 1.20

bought at 60sen. off my comp. see you all next year.

joined the game. yessssssss

50% of 30% share of profit? Technically, you're saying Hib only have a share of 2700 barrel per day of 18000, but to share 50% of capex and opex. It is a very bad business for anyone to go into.

Are you sure you've got this right? You're now saying a whole different story from the bank research. This is a serious matter if what you're saying is right.

Anyone subscribed the right issue? what was the price? so the market cap doubled after the right shares came out?

Thanks musangfox, this has answered very well except the crack spread which is more impactful for WTI based refineries. In local scene like us, it is a controlled economy (for the oil business).

No doubt, but my purpose is to highlight on the question whether a refinery business will benefit from rising/declining/volatile crude oil price? A business fundamentals are always solid reasons to drive and carve out a beautiful chart. Without that, a chart is not as good looking. :)

The PSD is based on a 50:50 basis. And if below 10kbpb/day, profit sharing shall be on a 50:50 basis. Yet, you're now basing 30% profit from 50% portion?

Please correct if I'm wrong.

Refinery is one of the few businesses in the world where you can't control your cost of materials and your product selling price, assuming no hedged forward contracts.

Crude oil price has been rising for the past few weeks, and yet surprisingly Malaysian end products selling price has dropped two weeks consecutively, at a time when crude oil price hit a two-year high.

Crack spread if you understand a refinery business is of least usage as it all depends on the time it buys its materials to add to its inventory.

In a basic refinery business, will it benefit from rising crude oil price, declining crude oil price or even, there is a third answer? If you are able to answer this, you know the answer if this is a growing stock (or not) as sold by stories from a veteran stockbroker. You will be shocked to find out how his assumptions and research are based on wrong answer to this simple question.

Refinery is one of the few businesses in the world where you can't control your cost of materials and your product selling price, assuming no hedged forward contracts.

Crude oil price has been rising for the past few weeks, and yet surprisingly Malaysian end products selling price has dropped two weeks consecutively, at a time when crude oil price hit a two-year high.

Crack spread if you understand a refinery business is of least usage as it all depends on the time it buys its materials to add to its inventory.

In a basic refinery business, will it benefit from rising crude oil price, declining crude oil price or even, there is a third answer? If you are able to answer this, you know the answer if this is a growing stock (or not) as sold by stories from a veteran stockbroker. You will be shocked to find out how his assumptions and research are based on wrong answer to this simple question.

Any good news? The share price has risen a lot since early of the year.