Haha.. Guys, why you all argue with the ignorant Calvin? It will only bring you down to his level.. Lol

Silver lining for the local steel industry?
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/01/21/silver-lining-for-the-local-steel-industry/

Berry Juice, I do agree with your point except that cash payout from AAC deal will go to waste. This is becoz I don't see how AAX shareholders like us will benefit directly from the disposal of AAC.

Usually only the immediate holding company shareholders or ultimate holding company shareholders will reap the benefit like in the case of UMW

One more concern is that TGSB stated in its share swap announcement the Company maintain its right to repurchase its disposed AAX shares.

If TGSB really intends to repurchase the shares at a later date, possibly 6 months to 1 year later, will Tony & Co let AAX share price shoot high up so that they repurchase them at a much higher price later on?

I bet not. Even if AAX price does not trend lower, it shall remain sideways for the near future. I consider this loan swap deal more as a cash flow fund raising for immediate future.

Perhaps upon completion of AAC deal about 6 to 9 months later when they are cash rich again, TGSB will exercise its right to repurchase its AAX shares, possibly at a lower price. Coupled with almost completion of profitable route expansion, that is the time when the real AAX value will be unlocked and the share price will start sky rocketing.

If there is no nod and information feed from Tony & Co, I don't think IBs really dare to fry the stock up especially in such an environment lately.

Well, just my 2 cents. Food for thought for the week.

If what is depicted in the above illustration from Wikipedia is the exact motive of TGSB, then AAX share price is expected to start trending down significantly soon.

Perhaps it is one of the way for Tony & Co to raise cash for the purpose of private placement in AirAsia?

The following is the example of illustration of equity swaps benefit from Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equity_swap

An investor in a physical holding of shares loses possession on the shares once he sells his position. However, using an equity swap the investor can pass on the negative returns on equity position without losing the possession of the shares and hence voting rights.

For example, let's say A holds 100 shares of a Petroleum Company. As the price of crude falls the investor believes the stock would start giving him negative returns in the short run. However, his holding gives him a strategic voting right in the board which he does not want to lose. Hence, he enters into an equity swap deal wherein he agrees to pay Party B the return on his shares against LIBOR+25bps on a notional amt. If A is proven right, he will get money from B on account of the negative return on the stock as well as LIBOR+25bps on the notional. Hence, he mitigates the negative returns on the stock without losing on voting rights.

The total aax shares disposed on 22 and 30 dec of 146,728,982 if add another 4 billion shares is almost the same as the amount of 4,148,148,177 shares held by foreigners as at 31 dec 2016.

The big question is who is the foreign institution who swap aax shares with tune group and what consideration are received by tune group in return?

Next, which foreign institution hold the remaining 4,000,000,000 aax shares? Are they the same party?

Lastly, what are tony and co up to by pursuing this move???

Question of a billion dollar !!!

If I am not wrong, the share swap involves disposal of AAX shares to foreigners / foreign institution as announced previously

Wow, how much is the stock TP for the longer term?

Zai zai, the actual proposal is ssteel taking over annjoo ?? Haha

The Q is FIFO only for the day. Even if you Q to sell overnight or over a week, your selling bid will be sent fresh to bursa system by your IB system every morning at about 8.30am. It depends whose bids able to reach bursa the quickest every morning.

If can maintain 250m as last year then already laugh ady lo

Congratulations for those who persevere ! Well done

You can always utilise T 3 facility to purchase in advance

Another UMA case???

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5309709

Stay strong !

At least 5% drop tomorrow? Anyhow, there is always an opportunity for some gain when others lose and give up

So what now? Not done accumulating ? Or not done distribution actually? ...

@manji, dare to dream.. But dream of a realistic one.. If you are merely looking at rm2, go to look at another counter.. Having said that, it all depends on the performance of the recently concluded quarter.. We shall see who have the last laugh.. haha

Theme for 2017 :- Be a smart trader rather than a long term investor

Overvalued, so what? It is not like the usd will be brought back to fair value in 3-6 months time. Until then, AirAsia has got to suffer from the weak currency environment

My TP call :-
1 mth - 1.80
3 mth - 2.20
6 mth - 2.50
9 mth - 3.00

Now it needs a new catalyst for the price to surge up and hold.. Push up by Mac etc may excites the loyalist but there is no point to hold at a higher price when the public doesn't buy into it.. As JJchan said, they might push up AAX in order to sell call warrants but again, after they sell substantial amount, they will push down the price again in order to avoid compensating the premium upon maturity.. No other big players will come to support unless the quarter result is able to substantiate its sustained earning capability. Short term traders will benefit though if they are able to catch the timing right

Cheap sale ! Come come come ! Grab some while stocks last !

AAX price maintained above 0.390 until about end of Nov 2016 was due to the wait for release of Q3 result.. When there was no fresh catalyst, instead selling pressure, it was only right to let it fall rather than supporting a dropping knife

but hopefully it will really rebound and stay high up there

i still concur that the operator is trying to clear their position for the short term

Seems like ks5S is not credible at all.. Most of the time what he says, the opposite happens, especially buy call..

A loss making company cannot up but a turnaround company definitely can !

Haha, then player must be too rich to be playing for fun.. Risking hundreds of millions just to earn a tick of few millions.. lol

haha, yong ji yong ji already sold off all his holdings silently.. Now waiting price drop to buy back..

But after wiping out 0.360 and 0.365, what's next?

Forget about AAX for a moment.. Let's move to steel counters.. Annjoo and Prestar have both shot up.. Only left Ssteel now waiting for its time !

Pasti

Tuju

Langit !!!

If not mistaken, the bank will automatically convert 75% of your usd receipt into rm immediately unless the company is able to provide supporting documentation that the usd currency is needed for payment of usd related transactions on the same day.

I suppose 360Capitalist is referring to unrealised forex losses arising from retranslation of usd denominated loans into rm which must be recognised in the financial statements at the end of each reporting period.

Although its revenue is also derived in usd, 75% of it has to be converted into rm and if rm continue to depreciate then more usd revenue is needed to service usd loans

It will go up again but will fall again by the time of release of the results

It is definitely not overvalued at the current price, but neither undervalued too

For those trapped small holders, I think it will be no harm if you exit at the next technical rebound as the exchange rate is already 4.48 now.. Forget about surging above 0.44 dream for the short term.. I seriously think that the earnings after deducting forex losses for the next few quarters will not be able to better the current EPS. Otherwise, you have to be trapped at 0.35 - 0.42 for the next 9 months or so.

In my opinion, it is because the general public expect that AirAsia's earnings in 2017 won't be as great as 2016 and the impact is even bigger with the imminent sale of AAC in the form of significant reduction in revenue.

If you guys have time with extra cash to spare, you may buy some steel counters now such as Annjoo, Ssteel, Prestar which are undervalued at the moment. The price of steel are making the rise gradually day by day, month by month..

It is definitely a trap.. When u see that only AAX was moving this morning but not the WA, something was amiss.. I think AAX is done for now and at least until next September given the stronger US currency heading into 2017

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/weakness-ringgit-persists-it-fell-further-rm448-against-us-dollar

They are now playing with public hope that exchange rate will recover to 4.2 - 4.3 by 31 Dec.. But once they head into the new year with 4.4 and above, I think they will push it low to accumulate at a bargain price

I do agree with Radzi's view that PAT for this coming quarter won't exceed 200m after setting off the forex loss, thus the rolling 4q eps will be lower than the current level. Perhaps heading into 1q17, we will see better days ahead when rm gradually appreciates with the election sentiment, thus bringing the forex gain again. Maybe around july - aug 2017 will be a better time to reenter. But still find it interesting to read up jjchan and radzi's analysis and postings. Cheers !

The rate being reported in quarterly result is average rate to translate mainly costs denominated in USD while the spot rate is used to retranslate the USD borrowing as at end of each quarter which is not disclosed. There is a forex gain despite depreciation of RM against USD in 4q15 because of recycle of fair value movement of cash flow hedge from reserve to profit and loss. It is not confusing at all. Go and take a look at IAS 21 and maybe you will understand better what I am talking here. It is true I do not hold a single share right now but I will be back next year when RM appreciates. My call forex loss easily rm150m if spot rate as at dec 31 remains at 4.4. Operation wise, they are doing well as displayed in cash flow statement but sadly hedge gain will only be recycled to profit and loss a year later

You can try asking JJchan and Radzi, even they can let you know the minimum forex loss is easily RM100m

When it is forecasted that a huge forex loss will impact the immediate coming quarter, there is no point to raise the price above 0.40 unless they want to release the trapped souls??

Another for sure ? One more trapper..

After Megasteel closed shop, then CRC producers will turn to Southern Steel (sole local producer) to source for HRC given the currently higher import duty

Dream a little dream ...

If CRC producers are having a tightening of margins due to the rising HRC prices, why not switch to HRC producer counter instead?

hewiester, on what basis that a conservative TP of 1.65 - 1.72 is set?