Yes, powerful surge to take place with tighter liquidity when good result is released.

Better quickly switch to Petronm before things get messy.

This time don't huat also can not la !

Watching closely to continue buying again when price purposely pressed down. A good bet as the price has been holding fairly well these few days.

Think the result out only next week. Good that way, at least still can buy more when drop lower.

Dumb dumb hold and dun anyhow get cheated to let go. Its too early to do that.

Friends, hold tight and dumb dumb hold.

Its juz beginning.

eps must be above 0.50, hope to see limit up again on this counter.

Standby mode at the moment

Hosei liao, and thank you Activeinvestor for sharing this info.

In that case, better hold really tight as some big gains may be in the pipeline, buy more if lower.

Wrong analysis, lousy ! Shame shame

Why bother this forecast, dumb dumb hold

Sellers really not willing to let go much nowadays.

Mostly dumb dumb hold.

Intergritytrader, are you holding any Petronm ?

No wonder selling pressure getting light.............hope to see it much lighter.

And thank you for locking up the shares and dumb dumb hold, including me.

Cheers !

When price go lower, noted a lot of value investors waiting to buy and keep.

Also noticed the volume getting thin every time of such correction. It's a good news to those still holding for revaluation once 2Q result is out.

David's writeup for recap on WORST CASE SCENARIO:

To be conservative, let start with worst case scenario for Petronm profit estimation. First we start with inventory/stock loss calculation

1. Worse case inventory/stock loss (Management stated in AGM they keeps 18-21 days stock) – I assume 22 days

Stock loss = 48k barrels x 22 (48.2 – 52.95)

= USD -5.016mil

= RM-21.57mil

2) Lower Refinery margin (lower down from USD5.3 to USD5.0) in a quarter (based on its regular throughput per day of 48k). Management also told us in AGM that its refinery currently running at around 60%.

= 4.368mil barrels X USD5.0 (estimated profit margin per barrel)

= USD 21.84mil

= RM 93.91mil

Throughput data from 2016 AR as shown in figure below (91 day in Q2 X 48k = 4.368 mil barrels)

3) Lower retails segment contribution (even though Ramadan month was in June and Q2 is 91 days as compared to 90 days of Q1), but let’s assume it performs 5% lower than Q1’17

= 100 mil (part 1 article assume 105 mil)

Net Gross Profit = -21.57mil + 93.91 + 100

= 172.34mil (part 1 article estimate 186.9mil)

4) Assuming higher operating cost and same finance cost of 5% more than Q1’17 (from Q1 report), Q2 operation cost and finance cost is = 36.33 mil

Net Profit = (172.34-36.33) mil = RM136.01 mil.

(Actually it should has lower finance cost in Q2 as last quarter it paid up 56 mil of loan that lead to lower interest cost)

Assume the same tax rate of 26.9% as per last quarter,

New possible lower or worse case Net Profit = RM136.01mil deduct 26.9% tax

= RM99.42 mil

RM99.42 mil --> EPS of 36.83 sen.

From this media release, Petron group profit is P2.6 billion and this translate to RM221 millions. From Q1 data, Petronm contributed about 30% of the overall net income. From estimated RM99.42 mil net profit, its contribution will rise to about 45% (99.42/221 x 100). This is the worse case scenario profit that I can think off for Petronm. The possible reasons higher contributions of Petronm on the overall Petron Corp profit are as below:

1. 45-days shut down of refinery

2. High inventory loss in Petron Corp (Philippine) as it refinery shutdown for 45 days (its Bataan refinery rated capacity is 180kbpd which should keep higher number of stock)

3. Overhead cost in refinery factory (due to it still needs to pay salary, electricity bill etc during the shut down)

4. Sub-contractors cost for the maintenance work

Dumb dumb hold for those keeping.......happy weekend

When it goes lower from here, surely valued investors will accumulate and add more for long term holding. No harm to those with positive cash piles.............lol.

In fact, many waiting to buy back, but the price didnt really drop much.

Petronm not expected to drop like its holding which has reported lower income.

Instead, it contributed much more this time.

paperplane, today starting at 4 pm in Philippines

As a recap issued earlier by sumato88 :

Stock: [PETRONM]: PETRON MSIA REFINING& MKTG BHD
Jun 22, 2017 01:41 PM | Report Abuse

Wow, just realized so many "experts" here talking about how oil price crash will erode Petronm's profit. Looks like everyone is worry about that. Believe it or not, I am still a believer and holding my shares in Petronm. I think time will tell who is right or wrong. As I said earlier, if you buy or sell Petronm's share based on oil price movement, my suggestion is to trade crude oil future.

I must admit that crude oil price movement does have impact to Petronm but the impact is only limited to its inventory holding (typically about 3 weeks) where management hedge half of it (makes sense to hedge as you source your crude from independent oil producer, unlike Shell Refining in the past where they don't hedge as they source from the parent co, this also explains the higher volatility of shell's profit)

I think the key to refining profit is still the refining margin where Jay pointed out correctly that 2Q17 refining margin is still better than 1Q17. Someone also pointed out that crude oil price crash from usd100/bbl in 2014 to 55 (average) and 44 (average) in 2015 and 2016 respectively but Petronm doesn't seem to be affected as it reported higher profit in 2015 (rm221m) and 2016 (rm238m).

Some of you may ask why? I attribute that to 3 factors, (1) refining margin is still the major profit driver, (2) whatever inventory gain and loss is 50% hedged, & (3) the inventory holding at any point in time is only 3 weeks, hence the inventory exposure is on 3 weeks rolling basis. That means the impact is limited to 3 weeks out of 52 weeks if oil price stabilizes after the sudden plunge. Oil price move up and down everyday, so refinery will have inventory gain or loss everyday. That is the reason why Petronm's 2015 & 2016 profit doesn't correlate with oil price crash.

And last but not least, I am still bullish on Petronm's retailing biz, which offers stable profit and growing volume. This is the jewel of the biz.

As a recap issued earlier by sumato88 :

Stock: [PETRONM]: PETRON MSIA REFINING& MKTG BHD
Jun 22, 2017 01:41 PM | Report Abuse

Wow, just realized so many "experts" here talking about how oil price crash will erode Petronm's profit. Looks like everyone is worry about that. Believe it or not, I am still a believer and holding my shares in Petronm. I think time will tell who is right or wrong. As I said earlier, if you buy or sell Petronm's share based on oil price movement, my suggestion is to trade crude oil future.

I must admit that crude oil price movement does have impact to Petronm but the impact is only limited to its inventory holding (typically about 3 weeks) where management hedge half of it (makes sense to hedge as you source your crude from independent oil producer, unlike Shell Refining in the past where they don't hedge as they source from the parent co, this also explains the higher volatility of shell's profit)

I think the key to refining profit is still the refining margin where Jay pointed out correctly that 2Q17 refining margin is still better than 1Q17. Someone also pointed out that crude oil price crash from usd100/bbl in 2014 to 55 (average) and 44 (average) in 2015 and 2016 respectively but Petronm doesn't seem to be affected as it reported higher profit in 2015 (rm221m) and 2016 (rm238m).

Some of you may ask why? I attribute that to 3 factors, (1) refining margin is still the major profit driver, (2) whatever inventory gain and loss is 50% hedged, & (3) the inventory holding at any point in time is only 3 weeks, hence the inventory exposure is on 3 weeks rolling basis. That means the impact is limited to 3 weeks out of 52 weeks if oil price stabilizes after the sudden plunge. Oil price move up and down everyday, so refinery will have inventory gain or loss everyday. That is the reason why Petronm's 2015 & 2016 profit doesn't correlate with oil price crash.

And last but not least, I am still bullish on Petronm's retailing biz, which offers stable profit and growing volume. This is the jewel of the biz.

Thanks david, is the mandarin version also on the way out ? Guess will reach more valued investors if chinese next version is written.

Those holding mother, dumb dumb hold if not later not able to get back

Noted a lot of valued investors added mother today, so I followed suit too.

hkck, what is your cc cost ?? How many units ?

Joblessrich, I like your computation a lot.

Why ? It's so conservative and yet still good result. So 2morrow sure fly up sky high.

Q1'17 income = P4.1B
less 45 days (50%) = P2.05B
Assume (consevatively) other overhead, fix cost, etc takes up 50% of the income
Philipines income for Q2 estimate is P1.025B

Therefore I think, Petronm income will be at least = P2.6B -P1.025B =P1.575 Billion (at least)

Need Sumato88 to come and estimate too.

Yes, of course. Very smart Jobless but Rich

Looks like this qtr income of P2.6 Billion mainly from Petronm since almost half the entire 2q of Petron Corp's plant is shut, so should be extremely good result from M'sia.

Any comments ?

Bro 逍遥子, thank you again for this invaluable input......happy making money cheers !!

Profit can be very good as Malaysian operations always contributing significant bulk of the consolidated figures

High chance to gap up above 10 when opening, since you and me not giving up all our precious tickets. What you think ?

Good morning all, with the change of event here after reading RHB coverage and the strong price uptrend despite still in early August, I have revised my TP to RM11.50/= - RM12.50 range.

Bear in mind, the price movement of the active participation from issuance of new call warrants coupled with existing one has indirectly given the strong signal that Petronm will go higher and higher soon.

Don't let go what you have too fast. Or else, you will regret for this once in a life time golden chance !

Yes, hold tight tight

KYYMachai, pls advise if golden opportunity arises. Will follow you double this time

Better dun

Betul cantik, terima kasih abang !

Hahaha, ask KYYMachai, he is the god of golden opportunity now. Quite chun his buy and sell calls so far.

Aiyo, super fast........happy happy

stockraider congrats Raider, me waiting for OTB and KYY too..............at PetronmCD, dunt be late before they come in............hehehe

Yes, into Cd as well

Luckily managed to catch a little yesterday, appears to start its BIG engine again given limited sellers and stronger holders now. Hope no one really misses this smooth sailing cruise, haha

Waiting patiently to enter more if good price.

Waiting to buy back......hahahahahahaha

Bye bye..........??

A lot of you lose the logical thinking ability, still in the dream it will go sky high

Run run run as fast as possible, BIG Trap on the way