Watch out on UMA reply later.

CEO sendiri said not good "A full recovery for the semiconductor industry is not only slower than expected, in fact, to put it more honestly, a full recovery is unlikely to happen in 2024."

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/06/21/china-unveils-us72bil-tax-break-for-green-cars-to-spur-demand. Good news for D&O.

Greatec got more than RM500mil new orders in current quarter (RM888m+156m-507m). Very impressive! Order book now last until first half 2024. If you read First Solar's announcement, there is another new plant worth US1.1B in North Alabama, to be operational in 2025, this will certainly enhance the order book for Greatec. Bright prospect!

Tesla's energy storage deployment almost double in Q3'22. No one excited? :)

@NatsukoMishima Maybe you should worry about MI and Dnex first? :)

Posted by probability > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

Refining margin swap notional value at end of 2019 (USD 357 million).

At that time, the refining margin is barely 5 USD/brl. If you use your formula, the barrels hedged would be:

= 357 million / (5 USD/brl)
= 71 million barrels

The contracted margin is disclosed in 2019 AR, it was USD5.50 to 23.05.

Posted by Sslee > 34 minutes ago | Report Abuse

If you use only Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.58
Equation:
V x A=226,945,000 or V=226,945,000/A
V x (31.58 – A) = 1,490,267,000/4.397

226,945,000 x (31.58 – A) = 338,928,133 x A
7,166,923,100= (338,928,113 + 226,945,000) x A
A= 7,166,923,100/565,873,133
A= 12.665
V=226,945,000/12.665
V= 17,918,718

I think the second one is closer. You can see my earlier comment, contract nominal amount was 265mil at Q4'21, with margin of USD8-12.30 as disclosed in AR. They bought more contract during Q1'22 because the contract nominal amount increased to 291mil and we do not know the contracted margin and maturity date here. So I would say bulk of the outstanding contracts at Q2'22 still have a contracted margin of USD8-12.30.

Let me present these facts and you guy interpret by yourself.

1) In 2021 AR, Note 19 (a), the Refining Margin Swap Contract (RMSC) was USD265.4mil with Gross Margin per barrel hedged at range of USD8-USD12.30 and contracts maturity date from Jan 2022 to Sep 2024. No one will know the Russia vs Ukraine conflict then, so HY might think that USD8-12.3 is a good margin at that time.

2) At Q1'22 QR, RMSC was USD291mil, at Q2'22 QR, RMSC is USD227mil, meaning USD64mil of RMSC have matured during Q2'22. If use high end of USD12 as margin of these RMSC matured in Q2, USD64mil/USD12=5.3mil barrels. These 5.3mil barrel has a fix margin of USD12 and total profit is RM280mil (remember this is 100% effective hedge, gain in revenue will offset by hedging loss which shown as RM439mil in Note A10 of Q2'22 QR).

3) Total revenue in Q2 is RM6,892mil, average selling price is USD151, use forex of 4.4, this translated into 10.4mil barrels sold in Q2'22. 10.4mil-5.3mil (hedged portion above)= 5.1mil that HY sold at market price/margin. 5.1mil*USD29 margin*4.4 forex= RM650mil. So total gross profit is RM650+RM280 (#2 above)=RM930mil (quite close to the reported gross profit in Q2'22).

4) We do not know how HY structures their RMSC, i.e when are these contracts matured because the contracts period is until Sep 2024 and the maturity date is fixed when the RMSC are entered. But we do know that portion of the volume sold would have a fix margin of up to USD12.3 per barrel (or higher if they entered into new RMSC). The rest would be at market price/margin.

5) If crack spread margin continue to decrease, the overall gross profit of HY will reduce, but their balance sheet position will improve with the lesser MTM hedging losses in liabilities.

6) Some worried about the increase in trade receivables, you can refer to A19 of the Q2'22 QR, most of the balances are current (within 30 days).

"First Solar (FSLR) is making a $1.2 billion investment into expanding its factory footprint in the U.S., providing a tailwind to President Biden’s push to accelerate domestic manufacturing and reduce America’s reliance on Chinese supply chains.

The largest solar manufacturer headquartered in the U.S., First Solar plans to invest $1 billion in a new fully vertically integrated factory based in the Southeast and an additional $185 million for upgrading and expanding its existing footprint in northwest Ohio.

The move allows the company to expand its solar capacity in the U.S. to 10 gigawatts over the next three years — enough to produce a solar panel every 1.6 seconds, according to First Solar CEO Mark Widmar." Let's see if Greatech secures more orders from First Solar.

Revenue for Q2 up but Profit down 13% QoQ, down 34% YoY due to increase in costs. Good news is that order book increased to 507mil, an increase of 158mil during last three month (507-467+118).

Paktua, sudah 1.30 lo, macam mana? unload 30%?

Finally, 1.01. nice...

hello calvin master, why use frontken and SFPtech? Can you help to calculate the PE using Unisem (old tech) and Cnergen (new tech)?

Hello Calvin, why compare with Gpacket where it has no result to show? If you said compare with Serbak we will still believe. :)

QoQ -25%. Cnergenz better?

@charles, they can get new orders ma, in their prospectus, it was saying 68.8mil orders to be realised in 2022. Look at Q2 revenue, already more than the orders book @ Q1'22 yet their order book at Q2 still have 72.6mil.

Congratulations to Paktua! Very decent QR, they are buying land for expansion. Potential Greatech in the making...

007007
Rebounds are selling opportunities.

You have been saying that since the price is 3.x. you not tired? haha

Done second tranche at 3.25. fire sales.

Just started to buy back, every 10% down will buy 25% of my allocated fund. Let's review this in 3-6 months.

If operate fully for the quarter (2more months for HT, 1 more month for JV), profits would be close to 130mil (pure extrapolation). Amazing results.

@Sslee, they have spent 17.7mil in 2020 (25% increase in PPE value), another 3.8mil in 2021. This is what they wrote in the 2020 AFS "In view of the rising turnover, the group has to expand production capacity significantly during the year. Production capacity is slated to increase to almost 2500 metric tons a month. With the increase in production
capacity, turnover in the coming year is expected to increase in tandem."

PAT of 7.5mil (excluding recognition of deferred tax asset) is within expectation, could be better if not because of the MCOs. Prospect is good according to the management, due to the contract extension with First Solar.

@Ularsawa, Masterpack and PA has the same major customer which is First Solar. In master's QR, it mentioned that operations of their major customer (FS) is not impacted by the lockdown.

QR soon, I am expecting a good one, looking at results from Master Pack and FS.

@kuring2, i think target price of 2.60 is pre-bonus. No analyst will give you a >100% price target...

Your article will make sense if building a glove factory is as easy as tanam tomato.

FY2019: Interest Expense 20mil, PAT 123mil;
FY2022: Interest Income 150mil

Assuming SPMX has net cash of 5B end of end of FY2021 and earns interest income @ 3% in FY 2022.

Do you see the different? Many didn't realize the unprecedented earnings during the pandemic periods have changed SPMX fundamentally.

400mil shared by four companies, can be glove or masks as well, not necessary in cash.

close green today, wait for it.

Not because of of Nasdaq i think, because people expect good result for Q4.

Is 4th quarter’s result out today?

Everythinng recovered in a day, congrats to all the believers..

Big boss has spoken, if glove no longer in demand just because of vaccines, all the manufacturers wont race to add production lines already. They are also a lot of new comers wanted to join the saga like PG Aspen. Interestingly Tan Sri wants to do more merger, can you imagine TG Super? Haha


https://www.sinchew.com.my/content/content_2324498.html

1) Revenue of 929mil cant just divided by 3, the ASP would have increased 15% every month for Q4'20. Based on that factor, revenue for Jun was 350mil, July is +15% from this amount.

2) You added additional cost for 3.3bil capacity, actually 2.2bil already included in Q4'20 cost. Additional cost for Q1'21 is only for 1.1bil capacity and this should be for Aug and Sep only. Additional capacity also came with additional revenue, this wasn't shown in your revenue number for Aug and Sep. :)

3) Effective tax rate is normally lower than the 24% statutory rate.. can use 22%.

4) Not sure how you get the 30% ASP increase for Aug and Sep but if I use 15% for the Jul, Aug and Sep, and with the changes above, i get approximately 1bil PAT as well.

5) Target price: PAT 1bil *2 + 1bil *0.8 * 2 =3.6bil (assume same ASP in Q2, ASP drop 20% in Q3/4). Take PE20 for 2021: 3.6bil/1.3bil shares*20= RM55

Production capacity at end of Jun already 24b/annum or 2bil a month. Under Scenario 1, profit for NG in Q3 should be 2000 * 3 * 0.8 * 4.2 * 60.48= RM1,219,276,800.
Cost per unit: Take Q2 as an example, operating cost 418mil, production per quarter 6bil, cost per 1k unit= RM70/USD17. Effective tax rate is lower as well (around 21-22%).....

Posted by shanice1234 > Aug 10, 2020 7:18 PM | Report Abuse

tomorrow still can buy at 21.20 or not ah..

Of course can't...... Because no one sell at 21.2 tomorrow, minimum 23 at opening...

Most impressive is cash balance, increased close to 1bil, way way better than Harta. Mind you the increase in cash flow is because of prepayment from customer 850mil, that will turn into revenue in the near future.

Impressive revenue, >30% increase in revenue every month from Apr to Jun 2020. Apply that to next quarter it will have 1bil PAT. Limit up next two days???

Expect 250mil PAT but the best has yet to come.

All gamblers from Harta came here d....

Pat 221mil only

https://agbrief.com/headline/malaysia-open-to-online-gaming

Cancelled my RM20 sell order, it was my Second TP.

People queue at RM23? Crazy d...

Khatulistiwa why so sour? Panic sell kah? U can chase high again.

Common sense, Malaysia produces 70% of glove capacity in the world, for sure US wont buy from China, where else they want to get glove?

Posted by thetruthoracle > Jul 16, 2020 4:12 PM | Report Abuse

The North America region, comprising Canada and the US, accounted for the largest share or 27% of Top Glove's sales volume during financial year ended Aug 31, 2019 (FY19), according to the company's latest annual report.

For FY19, Top Glove said its rubber glove sales volume in North America rose 20.3% from a year earlier although the quantity sold was not specified...

Source: The Edge

Sapu.... until TP7

My TP for Comfort is RM7. Assume revenue for Apr month is 58mil, every month add 15% due to increase in asp, revenue for Q2 would be 231mil and PAT at 63mil. Assuming no raise in ASP after Q2 (conservative cal), full year earnings is 63x3 16=205mil. PE at 20x, TP at RM7.