Too bad ? @sasword already gave signal.

NM I will buy during Red quarter... bcoz next quarter is fairly easy to guess..
Tomorrow onwards, please give a good discount..

Mushroom Biz.. ai yo yo.. this Biz is still bleeding..
Painful to stop but will continue to bleed during On & Off MCO condition..

@sense maker no need to explain.. Just kumpul.. kumpul.. during Red Q.

By the way RTA Revenue was higher than my expectation in Q1. Good sign towards Q2 since hiccuped and one off cost already shown in Q1.

@sense maker don't worry la.. PB player is confirmed strong strong ahead.

Just dance with Panic Seller.. just dance with the Wolf of Bursa.

@sasword will give sell signal to let Panic one sell until no tomorrow.

Just dance with them..

Buy high sell low.

What a good strategy from Panic Seller bcoz of MCO 3.0

Shopping window re-open.

Testing new resistance 0.72 and Hevea is still selling below NTA 0.76.

TQ.. Panic seller.. I like you very much..

Ha.. ha.. be patient. Dancing first..

Mieco's annual report positive Notes :

"The strong demand has led to increase in average selling price of our products. The particle board markets growth is expected to continue to be positive with the growing demand from the domestic market, and the Group expects the market to remain firm for the rest of 2021."

Why Hevea annual report so slow..

Hibernation mode due to Industri Sungai Gadut covid 19 string ?

My guess this week onwards plant utilization shall be back to full swing for both RTA & PB.

Q1 slightly impacted by (But price already factors in temporary weakness):

1. RTA plant shutdown for 10 days or plus due to Zombie Virus
2. Conservative 3rd Interim Dividend payout (partly lead to share price weakness)
3. As usual PB will also shutdown 7-10 days for maintenance in Q1

The goods, company buy back at 62.5c to give you signal :

1. No loss in orders (it is just a deferment of deliveries in March21 to April21)
2. Orders remain encouraging and operation can catch up its production in later stage
3. Ringgit in downtrend mode against USD
4. My guess Q1 will still better than last year while the shortfall will defer to show in Q2 since no loss in orders
5. Free cash flows can use to invest more automation in RTA segments (less headache compared to having more foreign workers). Move to Robotic line will be a good start.

Awaiting next month, Hevea's propose Final Dividend for FY2020 and its annual reports.

Next week is time wake up lol Hevea bcoz no more clouded with Temporary bad news.
I am waiting Japan to start the Olympic torch on 25th March. Don't ding ding dong.

Waiting HeveaBoard announcement when Heveapac will resume its operations.

I hope no orders loss at all, in which Heveapac still can ramp up production later to recover the loss time and deliver in time.

Dunno why ppl here keep on talking about Dividend and hold grudge on it..

Any tech stock pay a good dividend.. look at those tech stock's price..
Tech firm use profit to invest for growth.. So do HeveaBoard need to change..

The most important in Biz is always continue to invest for growth.. in which will reflect in share price eventually. Temporary bad news can be a good news to others..

What if Hevea going to invest in Glove Sector or Invest in fully automated furniture production line (to resolve foreign workers issue), Are you telling me the Dividend cut is a madness.

Free cash flows generated moving forwards is going to be very very attractive.

Many sectors can be explored with that kind of free cash flows, it is time HeveaBoard shall step forward to invest for growth. I am fully support. Ha.. ha..

Shall be charged if Directors not doing a good jobs to provide proper foreign workers accommodation and facilities within the accommodation.

No big deal but a big lesson to HeveaBoard. Don't follow "Top Glove" track to ill-treat foreign workers.

Just used the profit made to improve the foreign workers accommodation condition and comply the law accordingly.

A good "Media" wake up call to the Management Of HeveaBoard.

FY20 Q4 met expectation considered sharp increased of shipping cost (2-3 times) in Q4 which might not be able to pass thru. to customers. If not 12mil not an issues at all.

Good decision la.. Hevea is prudent in paying out Dividend during pandemic periods for FY2020.

Excess free cash flows can always be used to invest in more automation and products innovation.

Mushroom biz (not bad) is seemed growing well even though during multiple state MCO, CMCO and A-Z MCO..

Awaiting engine to re-ignite (once Heveapac quarantine is lifted), Target Price PB x 1.10 = 0.76 x 1.10 = 84c.

Airport congested.. due to temporary negative news..

Astro shall benefit from Stronger MYR Vs USD. Its content cost will trend down and its USD dominated borrowings cost will also trend down.

If any Msia snap election in 2021 will drive Media spending up. It will give more room for Astro to pay more Dividend moving forwards.

There is plenty of room for Dividend payout ratio moving forwards.

IF company performance improve to EPS 2c per Q.
Then I believe Hevea will continue its generous Dividend payout and will be in growing trend.
Although I prefer company can continue to invest for growth.

Last Q company allocated it for Capex investment to increase more adoption of automation (as per Q3 company invested RM6.1m in PPE) and reserved it for upcoming Solar Energy Generating System. Both initiatives will translate into increase in production efficiency and near future electricity cost savings. As I noticed Hevea entered JV with Salcon on Solar Power Purchase Agreements.

While market always emotional especially Traders, some might react on Index movement or unfavor news likes Japan might declare State Of Emergency again (in fact just like our CMCO doesn't affect import/export at all), new strain of virus and etc. So long it is temporary, nothing to worry too much

Hevea's book value at 74c and moving forward valuation at PB x 1.20 (ha.. ha.. my valuation after Q4). HLG current "Buy" called PB x 1.10 about 83c before Q4 result.
Just grab at discounted price = Boarding time and wait patiently at boarding area.

@sense maker your f'cast for Q4 result EPS 2c. Next month I hope it meet the market expectation close to EPS 2c. It might be slightly affected due to freight availability, can not ship out in Dec20 then will flow to Jan21.

Bargaining price resurfaced again due to weakness on Index and some unfavor news.

Market is emotional drive. Panic sell (Emotional Seller) Vs Panic Buy (Value buyer)

likes @sense maker said no brainer to grab when below its Fair Value.

If you read Poh Huat latest report, its orders piled up till Jun/Jul21.

That means furniture sectors benefited from Work From Home trend = High demand of Furnitures

Furniture sector orders piled up = High demand of Particleboard will continue

Challenging JJchan, lower margin due to 6 + 6 for Aug-Dec20 promotion. Yup understand.

Problem if Mazda fall back to 5 + 3 after Dec20 in which will increase margin, can the volume sustain ? It will fall below 1k/mth couple with no more Sales Tax exemption after Dec20.

Wait for KIA news first.. near term Valuation need to be revised downwards..

Revenue 600mil but margin dropped so much to PAT 24.5mil 4.1%.
Below the street expectation.

Sales Tax Exemption period end this month Dec20, moving forwards it is tougher for Bauto to maintain 1k plus sales volume per mth.

TP need to be revised downwards in the near term. Waiting right price only can consider to re-enter.

Volatile.. but will continue to retest its Valuation..

For those who love TVBox or piracy just ignored what I wrote here.
And don't waste your energy & time here.

IB new rating to Astro - For those enter below 80c your are safe now :

Public Bank 1.38, Maybank 1.24 & HLG 1.10 others below 1.00
(New rerating bcoz Astro still have room to improve its Dividend Yield, pay less doesn't matter bcoz BS is improving as well)

2ndly imagine Ananda & its Major Shareholders wanna to privatise Astro now, how much they will pay ? As per last IPO RM3.00. Easy $ lol.

Astro is just a featherweight to its Major Shareholders. One button push the price will skyrocket.

And anytime they can swallow those willing to sell cheap cheap then pay RM3.00 for the rest of the shares to privatise Astro. What a genius move by the insiders.

Back to its Biz, Topline dropped QoQ but surprisingly bottomline was maintaining well. That mean Astro was delivering a good jobs here to control its content cost and operation cost. Well done to those who work in Astro.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-trends/Malaysia-s-Astro-targets-Netflix-and-Amazon-with-streaming-launch

Astro also start offering Video Streaming. They are not sleeping. The past doesn't mean the future. So long Astro continue to embrace the new trend then they shall be able to return to growth again.

Why ? Msia broadband cost you around RM89-99 for 30mb speed and says you subscribe Netflix Standard HD package at RM45/mth, you will end up with RM145/mth +/- with broadband.

Therefore Astro package is still affordable to those who do not need broadband at home since mobile phone data package is good enough for basis work at home usage.

And GoShop is doing well. Don't underestimate GoShop. Surprisingly GoShop nowadays offering more & more items and not losing to Lazada & Shopee.

Lastly if you love piracy don't follow Astro and buy Astro. Bcoz you will plant yourself with too many negative thinking about Astro.

CMCO limit Astro to install its services from new subscribers, if not its Revenue shall trend up again.

Bauto shall not give Div. Use d $ to swallow KIA 100% or at least 80%.

My conservative Revenue 600mil & NP 55-60mil since last 3 mths hot selling model Cx5 & Cx8. I hope it beat my estimation and come close to JJchan estimation.

Next week Bauto to test 1.65 first. Waiting KIA news to rerate.

Hevea is still very far behind.. smoked by Mieco now..

Mieco took the lead in valuation - PB (0.59) x 1.35 = 80 cents of today closing

Hevea you got to work extra hard.. to catch up the valuation.. Don't lose out..

Relax.. just be patient.. allow market to adjust first.. QoQ will continue to shine..
Can not wait sell then pass to those who can wait and willing to reload more on weakness..

HLG also amended their TP from 48c to 83c now. Bcoz above expectation.
Ha.. ha.. my short-term valuation is better than IB. PB x 1.30 instead PB x 1.10 towards Q4.
Let wait and see whether Hevea will continue to beat expectation or not. I am very positive.

Evergreen highlighted higher ASP across the market. While Hevea highlighted company will continue to benefit from market turn around. So no worry, company will ensure its Fair Value to reflect in its share price accordingly.

Capex spending on automation shall continue in order to cut down heavy relying on foreign workers or Labour. And so far Hevea is on the right track to spend more on automation.

Q3 result was above expectation. Bravo.. bravo..

Market turnaround will continue to benefit Hevea for both PB & RTA segment.
Local plus Export Sales will continue to keep Hevea Bz..bz...

Q4 can expect exploded contribution from PB segment since ASP improved by another 20-30% and couple with increased in Plant utilization at 80-90% in which higher than Q3 at 70%.

My next short-term valuation before next Q4 result :

PB (0.74) x 1.30 = 96 cents, no surprise if it break RM1.00

Stay tune for year end closing price..

3 Particleboard players also edged up.. look likes PB biz will return to growth cycle..

ParticleBoard ASP hike 20-30% in Q4 certainly a big boost to ParticleBoard segment and recalled my earlier sharing in August :

Under amendment List Of P.U. look for P.U. (A) 231/2020.

Effective 17th October prohibition of import from All Countries for ParticleBoard/ChipBoard & FibreBoard.

#If M'sia custom start to enforce 100% above prohibition and completely not allow any import to local market. Then I believe the ASP will continue to remain strong in FY2021 and likely will continue to increase again due to strong demand of M'sia furniture especially coming from market abroad.

Short-term valuation PB x 1.0 = 74c due to strong orders from both ParticleBoard and RTA segments.

UOB Kay Hian upgrades furniture, particleboard sectors to 'overweight'

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/uob-kay-hian-upgrades-furniture...

Apparently Hevea is still in cheap valuation as compared to its peer likes Vs Mieco due to its solid Balance Sheet & consistent dividend distribution. Not to mentioned Liihen, Poh Huat, Homeriz is already flying sky high to its previous valuation.

Positive news to Hevea :

- ParticleBoard segment will benefit from ASP hike & lower material price to lift margin
- RTA segment will benefit from increasing demand of Home Office Furniture (work from home) due to Zombie Virus
- Orders visibility remains good through to 1Q21

Hopefully Q3 result will exceed market expectations.

Expect valuation to rerate after Q3, PB x 1.0 is a matter of time due to strong earnings visibility until next year.

Good write up about Heveagro, Mushroom distribution channel is in growing phases.

Positive news ahead (no need to worry at all) :-

-Confirmed better Sales volume ahead for both RTA & Particleboard in 2H.
Factories very bz.. bz.. running at full capacity..

-Q3 will return to profit for both segment. I foresee Mushroom segment will still in red due to marketing spending to increase distribution channel. Let wait & see whether Q4 can turn into profit segment or not.

Next be patient and wait for recovery of ASP and increasing orders from - US, Japan, South Korea, China & Others market.

Check this website if you can't find it http://www.federalgazette.agc.gov.my/index.php

Under amendment List Of P.U. look for P.U. (A) 231/2020.

Effective 17th October prohibition of import from All Countries for ParticleBoard/ChipBoard & FibreBoard.

It will certainly benefit ParticleBoard & ChipBoard players. Can expect gradual recovery of ASP in Q3 while Q4 will be much stronger when the act come into effect.

Management already guided Q3 will be a turnaround coz no disruption of supply chain anymore and so far no further lockdown due to Zombie Virus.

Q4 and onwards increase in ASP will be the catalyst. Stay tune medium to longer term price momentum..

@Patrick13 confirmed under amendment P.U. (A) 231/2020.

Try to search Federal Government Gazette. I double checked after read HLIB source highlighted about banned on importation of ParticleBoard/ChipBoard & Fibreboard.

Q2 was better than expected as what highlighted by @sense maker.

Recovery in Q3 & peak Q4 is on its way, 2H comfirmed in green due to no lockdown so far in Msia as well as Japan, S. Korea & China - Hevea's key markets.

One good news importation banned on ParticleBoard & Firbreboard effective mid-Oct will translate to ASP recovery. Pirce up = Bottomline go up

Dumb dumb hold.. and continue to collect low.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/heveaboards-prospects-cushioned-resilient-demand-japan?type=malaysia

“Our Japanese customers actually received a lot of urgent orders and thankfully, we were able to meet them.” — Yoong Hau Chun, HeveaBoard MD

See MD highlighted orders rebounded since June and 2H momentum is set to pick up.

Good jobs to retain important Japan customers base during firefighting period and resolve all urgent orders. More big orders sure will come..

Reminders :

If weak Q2 due to MCO in Msia and lockdown of some markets it served, you got to swallow it first and waiting strong 2H momentum.

Don't follow leader to sell low.. if you do I will be waiting for you.. to re-collect low..

Bcoz MD already highlighted - Post MCO or lockdown :

"In terms of capacity, the group’s plants in Negeri Sembilan run between 70% and 90% capacity, and hence, there is still further room for growth, said Yoong"

Oppss.. is Sin Chew not NanYang.. Thousand apology to NanYang..

Hevea RTA furniture contribute 60%-65% to its overall Biz while PB segment contribute 30-35% both its Topline and Bottomline

NanYang highlighted incomplete news in which very obvious favor to certain counter.

A flock of sheep follow leader to continue to sell low.. Don't rush.. don't rush I got to remind myself slowly re-collect low..

Company got tonnes of cash, but dunno why Hevea let it sitting in the Bank.

Either Hevea need to continue to re-invest wisely - more automation or else buy back own shares aggressively. FD interest nowadays is higher than your own Dividend payout meh..

Consumers shift might poise a medium term challenges to Pecca.

Changing consumers trend due to Zombie Virus might slow down demand of leather spec. vehicle.
People might defer to upgrade leather seat or choose basic spec vehicle model.

Biased HLI and wanna to mislead "Soh Chai" to sell cheap back..
Amongst the same ParticleBoard players Hevea was still my Top Choice.

Just to remind Hevea tough Q1 but was still able to make profit purely due to markets that company served was in the earliest Zombie Virus outbreak Zone likes China, South Korea then Japan..

If you read 'Poh Huat" Q2 report you will understand why Big Bro. furniture player likes Poh Huat & Liihen (US market dependent) are still worry worsening US market might dragged till year end..

The outbreak was worsening in US, thanks to their "Tidak Apa" attitude.. Ah Trump ko just treat it as seasonal "Flu".

Not bad Q1 considering all those factors - China Zombie town in Q1 then South Korea strict social restriction plus Msia MCO started in March. Softer demand from Japan due to Zombie virus mood.

Everyone is awared off Q2 - Zombie Virus plus lockdown globally, more importantly 2H recovery so far will continue to improve due to no widespread of Zombie Virus in the countries served by Hevea such as China, South Korea & Japan.

Economy reopened since May. Waiting any weakness to top up.. Dividend is seemed sustainable moving forwards and it also seemed company is quite generous to distribute Dividend.