这一波铁矿石等黑色金属期货下跌主要是中国政府收紧环保条例，产能被压缩所导致。部分钢铁企业已经收到限产50%的通知，而侦察大队也马不停蹄的部署新一轮行动。中国供给侧改革，压缩过剩产能不是一两年的计划，大蓝图已经策划到2025年。而钢铁作为压缩产能的头马，北京当局不管是行政上，执行上都是给予最高的关注。好不容易钢铁价格开始摆脱五年的低位往上行，钢铁企业开始转亏为盈，这一波的行情不是那么快，那么简单就会扭转的。这部分还关系到钢企（主要是国企）债转股上的考量，去杠杆等等的操作，预期钢铁行情是以慢牛的形态往上爬。中国钢铁业以往（过去5年）也是以底成长见称，市盈率8-10倍是正常的，自从去年产能压缩起，钢企市盈率已经飘到15倍以上。这是一波十年一遇的大行情！

这一波铁矿石等黑色金属期货下跌主要是中国政府收紧环保条例，产能被压缩所导致。部分钢铁企业已经收到限产50%的通知，而侦察大队也马不停蹄的部署新一轮行动。中国供给侧改革，压缩过剩产能不是一两年的计划，大蓝图已经策划到2025年。而钢铁作为压缩产能的头马，北京当局不管是行政上，执行上都是给予最高的关注。好不容易钢铁价格开始摆脱五年的低位往上行，钢铁企业开始转亏为盈，这一波的行情不是那么快，那么简单就会扭转的。这部分还关系到钢企（主要是国企）债转股上的考量，去杠杆等等的操作，预期钢铁行情是以慢牛的形态往上爬。中国钢铁业以往（过去5年）也是以底成长见称，市盈率8-10倍是正常的，自从去年产能压缩起，钢企市盈率已经飘到15倍以上。这是一波十年一遇的大行情！

many countries are imposing anti dumping tax on China steel, they have to find an alternative

Currently steel profit margin is around RMB1000/ton, you can imagine how much those steel companies can earn.

And if you study steel companies in China, they are currently trading at PE>15, the whole industry there is booming to meet the government target. There will be more and more consolidation, M&A in future.

Don't worry too much about future, in China future market is like a casino, fluctuation very big. It is not like Dow future where the interaction is much higher. Today future drop but if you check most of the listed steel companies in China are not dropping following the future. China itself don't care so much about future why do we in Malaysia care so much? The more important is 现货价格，esp those near southern area which could be meant for export. Mostly still above 4000. From early Sep till now price only dropped 100++, the demands still very strong, industrial players don't even worry about the demands during winter period.

The more important is they have eliminated 地条钢，no more cheap and low quality steel from China.

China production capacity will be under tight control since last year. There will be no new license issue to setup a new plant. And the steel industry is undergoing consolidation in the coming years to meet the government target.

市场上票不多了，看来下星期行情应该启动了

上海现货价格依然高企于RMB4040

Bought at 2.31

Time is running out, they have to collect as much as they can before Nov

Bargain hunting

Thanks Edward!

Accumulated some again, investing is simple, buy on correction, sit back and relax, wait for the surge later.

And looking at all the major construction projects awarded at the 2H, most of the companies will preorder the construction materials upfront to hedge the risk, so can imagine steel companies already have their production fully book till end of the year. Q3 and Q4 results will be superb!

供不应求！it's a seller market now.

IBs are accumulating the shares before starting coverage. They know all the details about this sector and well understood the big earnings in coming few quarters, don't let them take over your shares. They know the share price will keep going up as more and more people realized the potential in the sector. So they are rushing to buy in more.

IBs are accumulating the shares before revising the target price. They know all the details about this sector and well understood the big earnings in coming few quarters, don't let them take over your shares. They know the share price will keep going up as more and more people realized the potential in the sector. So they are rushing to buy in more.

Great news! Won a new contract again! And big one yet to come, no wonder see some funds accumulating the shares. Foresee uptrend started soon.

Hah.. 2.5 I am still buying

The real value of this stock yet to be revealed, don't be the weak player and get brushed out by "certain party".

中国2017年供给侧改革，地条钢出清，及称为2009年以来历时最长、力度最严的“2+26”城市采暖季限产，今年钢材产量总体将减少近1.83亿吨。所以中国今年头到8月份的钢铁出口量持续下跌，自家都出现供需缺口了还怎么顾的了出口？这里面最重要的还是打击地条钢，这是中国劣质钢铁，低价钢铁的源头。

Looks like IB is accumulating before coverage report

看来没人敢放票，庄家也怕放了吃不回

Accumulating on weakness