i3lurker

the all things IPP knowing i3lurker (self claimed)

Some IPP wit EVN given 12% IRR somehow can capai mid teens IRR how do they do tat?

Yes all dah settled by then

Risk free

6x is good

4x is simply great

DK66

Given ur profit projections10% ni kan dibeli at PE apa agak nya?


DK66 Dear OTB, Thank you for the information 

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OTB Posted by probability > May 8, 2020 12:00 PM | Report Abuse 

yeah....best is if they can show some sign that thwy will increase their stakes to 40% 

may be sifu OTB can dig this info 
------------------ 
Ans : 
Jaks will increase their stake to 40% once COD is in place. 
May be less than a year after COD. 
I was told in this way. 
Thank you. 
08/05/2020 12:10 PM

08/05/2020 12:21 PM

The problem is the term IRR is being used very very loosely n as such means different things to different ppl n on context

As Sarifah said before wat u said has merit too


Investee 


Also I think IRR should cover U$1.87b capital investment only without debt and tax.

07/05/2020 5:11 PM

Klau u derived u 16% based in Vihn Tan 1 reported results tis 16% IRR probably is the sum of capacity payment + energy payment

Capacity payment = 12%
Energy payment 4%

Hai Duong also can hit mid teens IRR

Capacity payment = 12%
Energy payment = sales of electricity



probability sarifah, kamu yg kata Hai Duong and Vinh Tan 1 is apple to apple...tapi i kata Vinh Tan 1 pine-apple sebab i estimate IRR dia around 16% 

sebab tu i kata jangan banding dgn Vinh Tan 1 

Klu you ada bukti IRR Vinh Tan 1 sama at 12%...then berita baik la untuk Hai Duong... 

harap mengerti

07/05/2020 4:49 PM

Taksiran Sarifah EVN granted 12% IRR to ALL the IPP at the time when Hai Duong was approved

12% IRR mcm mana the IPP companies want to twist n turn with their funding critical sama mana EVN x kisah

Knew u r going to ask

Can't b too difference isn't it?

Anyway where do u see it is not 12% IRR?


probability sorry sarifah, where is the info that EVN guranteed 12% IRR to Vinh Tan 1? 

kindly share

07/05/2020 4:35 PM

12% IRR EVN guaranteed only d capacity payment n doesn't include energy payment.....

Sarifah think mcm mana critical x relevant sgt

EVN guaranteed IRR 12% to both Vihn Tan 1 and Hai Duong n both funding structure 75:25 make them apple to apple enough

Follow Vinh Tan 1

Klau Vihn Tan 1 is an apple

Hai Duong IPP is an apple

Follow Vinh Tan 1 is comparing an apple to an apple

x pernah dengar ke let's d figure speaks for itself

probability

U ni a nonsense

Post details x nak post keep talking round n round

The best is u show ur calculations using ur understanding of the 12% IRR

Tapi


SarifahSelinder Peer comparison wit Vinh Tan 1 is DK66 best work

07/05/2020 2:45 PM

Admittedly wat u bilang kat sini ada merit n might tally wit wat Sarifah said


SarifahSelinder Must clarity 

Did EVN specify the 75:25 funding requirement bila it quoted the 12% IRR?

07/05/2020 1:47 PM

X

SarifahSelinder Did EVN ever bother itself with funding structure of an IPP?

07/05/2020 1:50 PM


probability The below gives step by step sample evaluation: 

Project IRR and Equity IRR: A Curious Connection 

https://feasibility.pro/project-irr-and-equity-irr-a-curious-connection/ 


Calculation of the internal rate of return considering only the project cash flows (excluding the financing cash flows) gives us the Project IRR.

07/05/2020 2:45 PM

Peer comparison wit Vinh Tan 1 is DK66 best work

Anyway Sarifah dah decided to remain invested in JAKS Hai Duong IPP

Yes

Vihn Tan 1 is real result

Vinh Tan 1 result is after deducting interest

Vinh Tin 1 guaranteed IRR quoted by EVN is probably 12% IRR too

No tis is not true

Sbb Vinh Tan 1 oso ada debt financing


probability 

However, hope i can conclude that the only argument you have that we should use FCF-E on Project IRR given by management of 12% is because, FCF-F will wipe out the Earnings significantly below Vinh Tan 1.

GUARANTEED 12% IRR wat does tat mean?

Not hiding jz different interpretation of the 12% IRR

12% IRR appears the IRR given to ALL the IPP

DK66

Allowed doesn't mean it is a condition to have 75:25 bila EVN quoted its 12% IRR


DK66 sarifah, Vietnam allows only projected IRR of 12% under certain assumed operating conditions to ensure IPP are not overpaid.

07/05/2020 1:58 PM

Did EVN ever bother itself with funding structure of an IPP?

Must clarity

Did EVN specify the 75:25 funding requirement bila it quoted the 12% IRR?

Alamak jgn go back to efficiency

Upfront the 2 of u must clarity n agree on wat IRR of 12% guaranteed by EVN means

EVN upfront cannot guaranteed return from sales of electricity

Sales of electricity return is the one that can push IRR to mid teens

There is further return from sales of electricity

probability

Klau what u said is true thn 160m is d minimum not d maximum being the 12% IRR return that EVN can guaranteed also equal capacity payment



probability Not sure what you mean. If you exclude the interest and make the FCF-E(equity) Icon had used and replace with FCF-F(firm), you can then work back on the required FCF-F to make the IRR 12%, you can then determine the FCF-F. 

With the FCF-F, you have to then deduct the interest to obtain the Earnings. 

This way, the earnings cannot exceed 160M. However its quite sensitive to the time frame/intervals between cash outflow and inflow used. 


Posted by DK66 > May 7, 2020 1:04 PM | Report Abuse 

If you could explain the results of Vinh Tan 1 under the assumption that the interest cost is excluded, then further discussion shall be meaningful.

07/05/2020 1:24 PM

Probability

Rephrase ur question properly

U ni x reply jz pusing pusing?!


SarifahSelinder Yg ni u kira guna IRR cara mcm mana? Same cara DK66? 

probability  

my JAKS earnings projection still stands about max 160M per year

06/05/2020 7:33 PM




probability @DK66, on Icon's IRR 12% derivation comments section, i could not find your explanation on why the interest should be included when its a Project IRR. 

I had presented my resources on why Icon's calculation is incorrect here: 

http://infrastructure-projectfinance.blogspot.com/2013/11/project-irr-vs-equity-irr.html 

http://ecapslock.com/project-irr-vs-equity-irr/ 


Internal Rate of Return (IRR) 
............................. 

Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is a rate on which NPV of the project equals to zero i.e. value arriving by discounting all the cash flows of the project with IRR rate will be zero. 

Project IRR (PIRR) and Equity IRR (EIRR) 
........................................ 

The project is generally financed in some proportion of Debt and Equity. 

The project IRR gives the rate of return from the whole project. It is calculated presuming that there is no debt portion in the project financing. It calculates the rate of return considering the cash flows from the project only (i.e. except financing cost). Project IRR will remain same irrespective of capital mix of the project. 


The above is not matching Icon's derivation here: 

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/2020-05-01-story-h1506818792-_Icon_Jaks_Resources_IRR_Model_Shows_That_RM300_mil_Net_Profit_p_a_For_.jsp 


Its has significant impact on earnings estimation, as such kindly elaborate on this. 

Thank you

07/05/2020 12:40 PM

Sarifah pun rasa meeting wit team Andy not adequately addressed kat ni

Tapi

DK66 peer comparison n OTB stil bet big is enough confirmation tat JAKS kan great

Yg ni u kira guna IRR cara mcm mana? Same cara DK66?

probability 

my JAKS earnings projection still stands about max 160M per year

Klau take in all ur comments PBB profit figure shd b jz capacity payment jer

Ni more DOE requirement kut

D 2 types IPP cost almost sama jer

Klau subcritical n supercritical profit kan substantially difference knp Hai Duong IPP x guna supercritical jer??

icon888 makes more sense

HaHa.......

Sooner or later Andy kan reveals betapa best nya Vietnam Hai Duong IPP

Andy dah planned to cut red ribbon n reveal all

DK66 has jumped queue n stole Andy's thunder

Jadi wat d customers (in JAKS case EVN) consider upfront bila setting IRR 12%

Upfront do they consider the capital structure? Did EVN bother itself how JAKS was going to finance the IPP?

UPfront do they consider the IPP plant design? Did EVN stipulate what kind of PP JAKS must have?

Sarifah proudly berjiwa IPP unapologetic angkuh dan liar

Hai Duong kat face peer pressure to perform

Kan di benchmark against other similar Vietnam IPP

Can tell if it under performed

Yes

Purebull

U dah raise tis point many times despite answers provided

It is time u share wit us in ur mind how cara cara CPECC is going to take JAKS for a ride

Buy roses for ur wife everyday to ur father in law too

Klau Addy x pandai pandai lagi after IPP we all go AGM every year to betul betul taruk x bagi chance lagi Andy

Klau mcm ni u r talking abt return jz from capacity payment alone right?



Probability the return will be like what the management said to Public Bank IB of ~120M (profit) for 30% stake then 

since the capital and interest payment is secured by EVN, its like a having a Bond level return perhaps... 

just speculating

Yg ni coming from someone yg dulu had 0 integrity (mungkin now jugak) who screwed up big time who had to pretend a disappearance n absorbed to d deep jungle in Sarawak

But nevertheless condemning others for life based on d past

Never giving 2nd chance

Klau bini n mertua u hv d same thinking mcm u u r gone case long ago

Gajah di hadapan mata x nampak nyamuk di seberang nampak

Btw Andy x seteruk mcn u mcm wat u hv said




Philip ( buy what you understand)


Their history already shows execution risk.


... JAKS gets the earnings, how sure are you they will be able to either pay a consistent dividend, buyback shares, use the earnings to take on bigger profitable jobs instead of going further into debt? 

Their history already shows execution risk.

01/05/2020 7:56 AM

Solan nya

Dah ka OTB sendiri dah jual d?